We’re taking a look at the biggest movers in terms of the change in playoff or division title probability as a result of what happened on Sunday.
It’s Separation Sunday.
That’s because the early Week 14 slate has been packed with critical showdowns with major implications for both the division and playoff races. Steelers-Ravens, Bengals-Bills, Colts-Jaguars and Bears-Packers headline the list, with several other hopefuls in action.
But how will the results of these key matchups actually impact the playoff hunt?
We’re attempting to answer that question in real time by comparing each team’s playoff or division title probability (depending on each team’s respective position) entering Week 14 with their chances after Sunday’s game, per our Opta supercomputer.
Because of what’s at stake across most of the slate, we’re expecting some substantial movement with teams either solidifying their chances or plummeting out of postseason certainty.
Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in terms of the change in playoff or division title probability as a result of what happened on Sunday.
Biggest Risers
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (+29.6%)
Sunday’s Result: W 27-22 at Ravens Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 47.9% Current Division Probability: 77.5%The Skinny: Reports about the Steelers’ demise proved to be premature on Sunday. After losing two in a row and five of their previous seven, the Steelers (7-6) won their biggest game of the season at Baltimore to take over control of the AFC North. They only finished with 34 rushing yards, but Aaron Rodgers threw for 284 yards and a touchdown and DK Metcalf had seven catches for 148 yards. The last team to win with 34 or fewer rushing yards was the Cowboys, 26-24 over the Buccaneers on Dec. 22, 2024.
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) runs for a touchdown during the first half against the Ravens on Sunday. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)2. Jacksonville Jaguars (+20.4%)
Sunday’s Result: W 36-19 vs. Colts Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 36.0% Current Division Probability: 56.4%The Skinny: The Opta supercomputer has been big on the Jaguars (9-4) all season. They have a ton of talent and appear to be putting it all together when it matters most. Trevor Lawrence threw for two touchdowns and Travis Etienne Jr. ran in a pair of scores as Jacksonville made a huge statement by taking over sole possession of first place in the AFC South. The Jags also boosted their playoff probability to 90.4%.
3. Buffalo Bills (+4.1%)
Sunday’s Result: W 39-34 vs. Bengals Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 5.5% Current Division Probability: 9.6%The Skinny: Trailing 28-18 in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen and the Bills (9-4) imposed their will on the visiting Bengals. They poured in 21 points over the final 7:33 to move within two games of the idle New England Patriots in the AFC East race. Allen threw for three touchdowns and no interceptions, while tight ends Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes combined for 11 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns.
Biggest Fallers
1. Indianapolis Colts (-23.0%)
Sunday’s Result: L 36-19 at Jaguars Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 35.9% Current Division Probability: 12.9%The Skinny: It really doesn’t matter what the numbers say here. Not only did the Colts (8-5) suffer a head-to-head loss to now-division leader Jacksonville, but they’ve also lost quarterback Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles injury. Indianapolis’ division odds took a huge hit, but now its playoff chances could also be in jeopardy with Riley Leonard pushed into action.
2. Baltimore Ravens (-24.2%)
Sunday’s Result: L 27-22 vs. Steelers Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 44.9% Current Division Probability: 20.7%The Skinny: It wasn’t long ago when the Ravens (6-7) had won five in a row and appeared to be the favorite in the AFC North after a 1-5 start. But now they’ve lost division home games to the Bengals and Steelers to fall behind Pittsburgh at the top. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been great of late, totaling one TD pass and four interceptions over the past four games.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.1%)
Sunday’s Result: L 24-20 vs. Saints Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 66.3% Current Division Probability: 58.2%The Skinny: Let’s be honest. The Buccaneers (7-6) are lucky to still be in first place after losing five of their last seven games. This one particularly hurts against a visiting Saints team that had won just two games heading in. Tampa Bay did get some good news with Bucky Irving back in the lineup, but Tampa’s half-game lead over the idle Carolina Panthers is gone.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.3%)
Sunday’s Result: L 39-34 at Bills Pre-Week 14 Playoff Chances: 8.1% Current Playoff Probability: 1.8%The Skinny: With Joe Burrow back and fresh off a 32-14 win at Baltimore, the Bengals (4-9) hope to cause some chaos in the AFC North race down the stretch. They looked to be in position with a 28-18 lead in the fourth quarter, but Burrow, who threw for four touchdowns, made a pair of critical turnovers that helped catapult the Bills to victory.
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NFL Week 14’s Biggest Risers and Fallers in the 2025 Playoff Chase Opta Analyst.
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