Ranger Suarez Rumors — I know there’s a whole lot of exciting Cubs/Alex Bregman talk out there lately, but don’t let that distract you from the publicly stated and more logical offseason objective: Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.
Last we heard, the Cubs were in on Dylan Cease until his bidding approached $200 million, and that they remain involved in the markets for Michael King and Tatsuya Imai. We also learned that the Cubs can add upwards of $50 million to the 2026 payroll, which is a good step up from our initial expectations. All good signs that they really do intend to target a higher tier of starting pitcher than they have historically.
But if you want even more optimism – and freshly rumored pitching targets to dream on – look no further than Mark Feinsand’s latest at MLB.com.
The national MLB.com reporter confirms what we already know — that the Cubs (along with the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Phillies) are “believed to be the most interested” clubs in Tatsuya Imai, with a similar story for Michael King (Cubs plus the Yankees, Mets, and Tigers). But he also drops two new Cubs free agent targets that officially change what we’ll be thinking about and tracking the rest of the offseason: Ranger Suarez and Zac Gallen.
For now, we’ll just focus on the big one, Ranger Suarez, not only because he’s the bigger, more exciting target, but also because the report/rumor is much stronger.
Cubs Among Biggest Threats for Ranger Suarez
The Rumor
According to Mark Feinsand, the Phillies, with other free agent priorities at the moment, are more likely to let Ranger Suarez sign elsewhere this offseason than re-sign him themselves. And one of the three most likely landing spots, according to Feinsand, is the Chicago Cubs.
“A number of clubs have been attached to Suárez in recent weeks, with sources tabbing the Astros, Cubs and Orioles as the most serious threats to sign him away from the Phillies. The Mets and Tigers are also in the mix, per sources.”
Well, hello there.
It’s not like I was never thinking about Ranger Suarez as a potential Cubs fit this offseason. He is one of the top free agent starting pitchers, and the Cubs are in the market for one of the top free agent starting pitchers. But, like Framber Valdez, Suarez was never actually connected to the Cubs in any direct reporting until today.
Moreover, this report, taken at face value, is more than just a “Well, they’re also checking in on Player X.” Instead, Feinsand makes it clear that the Cubs are considered one of Suarez’s most serious suitors at this point in the offseason. And that means we’ve got to talk about his attractiveness (or not) and fit on the 2026 team.
© Denis Poroy-Imagn ImagesThe Concerns (And Caveats)
First, the three negatives: (1) Diversification, (2) Injury History, and (3) the Qualifying Offer.
(1) Diversity (or a lack thereof): On the surface, Ranger Suarez is not the type of pitcher we had in mind for the Cubs this offseason. In fact, as a soft-tossing, contact-managing left-hander, he’s a bit more of the same at a time when we suspect the Cubs will want to diversify (which is why, for example, they were so serious about Dylan Cease). And that is especially true after Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer.
(2) Injury History: Moreover, Suarez has not been a particularly healthy or prolific pitcher throughout his career.
In 2022, he hit the IL with lower back spasms, topping out at 29 starts and 155.1 IP. In 2023, he opened the season on the IL (left elbow strain) and was shelved again in August (right hamstring strain), finishing with 22 starts and 125.0 IP. In 2024, he dealt with lower back soreness again (another IL stint), managing only 27 starts and 150.2 IP. And last season, he again opened the season on the IL with lower back soreness, finishing with just 26 starts and 157.1 IP.But there are two pretty immediate and easy counterarguments/caveats to both of our first two points.
On the lack of diversification, sure, we may think the Cubs want (or should want) to diversify their rotation for the sake of protecting themselves against an unexpectedly weaker defense or more friendly winds at Wrigley Field (also just to have different looks for opposing teams). But also, the Cubs clearly have a type. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Matthew Boyd are all relatively softer-tossing left-handers who, when at their best, succeed by managing contact.
I could be very easily convinced that the Cubs believe that particular profile is well-suited for their current defense and ballpark. Or that they’re simply undervalued in free agency.
And as for the injuries/lack of innings … it’s not 2008.
The 104 starts Ranger Suarez made from 2022-2025 ranks 34th (of 153 qualified starters) in MLB over that stretch, between Max Fried and MacKenzie Gore. And his 588.1 IP over the same period ranks 33rd, between Freddy Peralta and Sandy Alcantara/Tarik Skubal. Would we all love it if he had no history of injuries? Sure. There absolutely are guys like that out there. Cease was one of them. But Ranger Suarez is simply not much of an outlier in the modern game.
Moreover, with a significant amount of starting pitching depth (Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Colin Rea, Jordan Wicks, Jaxon Wiggins, etc.), the Cubs are pretty well-suited to mix and match starters all year to keep guys healthy at the cost of a few missed starts.
And lastly, the qualifying offer. Because Suarez received and rejected the Phillies’ qualifying offer, he is attached to draft pick compensation. Which means if the Cubs sign him, they’ll forfeit their second-highest pick in the 2026 MLB Draft (plus the associated bonus pool space) and $500K in IFA funds.
But here’s the thing: Because the Cubs are expected to lose Kyle Tucker, they’ll be gaining a compensatory pick of their own. And just yesterday, they completed a trade with the Astros, acquiring $250K in IFA bonus pool space. In other words, the relative/opportunity costs there have already been mitigated.
So … how about the positives? There are a lot!
© Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn ImagesThe Positives
From the widest lens, Ranger Suarez, is — and simply has been — a very good pitcher for four straight seasons: 3.59 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 12.2 WAR (19th in MLB over that stretch). And he’s arguably been getting better as he ages.
For example, look at this blossoming ratio between strikeouts and walks:
2022: 19.5 K%, 8.8 BB% (2.22 K/BB) 2023: 22.0 K%, 8.9 BB% (2.48 K/BB) 2024: 23.2 K%, 6.5 BB% (3.54 K/BB) 2025: 23.2 K%, 5.8 BB% (3.97 K/BB)For a contact manager, his 3.75 K/BB ratio over the last two seasons (21st best in MLB) sure looks pretty good.
And then there’s the contact management stuff, wherein, despite already being among the best in baseball, he continues to improve as the years roll on.
2022: 87.5 MPH EV, 6.8 Barrel% 2023: 87.8 MPH EV, 7.5 Barrel% 2024: 86.9 MPH EV, 5.1 Barrel% 2025: 86.5 MPH EV, 5.5 Barrel%From 2022-2025, Ranger Suarez’s 87.1 average exit velocity (t-9th in MLB) and 6.2 barrel% (t-13th) are among the very best in the game. Shrink that to just the last two seasons, and he ranks second for both. And I haven’t even gotten to the best part yet, his groundball rate.
For his career, Ranger Suarez has a 52% groundball rate. Over the last four seasons, it’s 49.3%, which is just outside the top-5 in baseball.
That, of course, is good all on its own, but perhaps especially potent in front of what figures to be a very stout Cubs infield defense, with Gold Glove candidates or former winners at every position.
And I’m just going to add a buffer line here, because I want you to sit with the previous thought for an extra second: Whether you realize this or not, the Cubs’ defense is among the very best in MLB. So there is some added, idiosyncratic value for them with pitchers that allow the ball to be put in play (but do so with control).
What about cost?
© Katie Stratman-Imagn ImagesHow Much Will Ranger Suarez Cost?
Let’s take a quick look at the various contract projections for Ranger Suarez to see if we can find an average.
ESPN (McDaniel): 4/$92M ($23M AAV) MLBTR: 5/$115M ($23M) CBS Sports: 5/$125M ($25M AAV) FanGraphs (Crowdsource): 5/$125M ($25M AAV) FanGraphs (Clemmens): 5/$130M ($26M AAV) The Athletic (Britton): 6/$153M ($25.5M)The average length of the deal? Five years. The average AAV of the deal? $24.5M. The average total cost of the deal? $123M. For a pitcher heading INTO his age-30 season, that is a reasonable contract length and total outlay.
And choosing to go with someone like Ranger Suarez at $125M (or so) versus Dylan Cease at $175M or so could open up the door for more aggressive free agent pursuits in the bullpen (Pete Fairbanks?) or in the lineup (Alex Bregman?).
Needless to say, I’ve talked myself into being pretty excited about this one. There are a lot of really great free agent pitchers (and trade targets) out there, but the unique combination of youth, projected cost, and fit in front of this Cubs defense makes Ranger Suarez among the most enticing options.
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