On Monday, we revealed Spain were the Opta supercomputer’s pre-draw favourites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Here, we analyse how they became the predictive model’s team to beat.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw takes place on Friday 5 December, and earlier this week we revealed Spain are the Opta supercomputer’s pre-draw favourites to lift the trophy in north America next year.
Their squad depth, convincing recent form and the success they have had since Luis de la Fuente took over all contribute towards them winning the 2026 World Cup in 17% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-draw simulations – more often than any other team.
The 2026 World Cup will be hosted across Mexico, the United States and Canada, and history in the Americas is lopsided, with seven of the eight World Cups held there won by South American sides. When the USA last hosted the tournament (1994), Brazil won it; when it was last played in Mexico (1986), Argentina took the title. Before that, Brazil also won it in Mexico (1970).
Eight nations have better than a 5% chance of winning in 2026, according to the supercomputer. After that, the probabilities fall sharply with Norway, Colombia and Belgium sitting right at the edge before the drop-off.
What Gives the Opta Supercomputer Faith in Spanish Success?
Spain have struggled massively in the last three World Cup tournaments. They are no strangers to being given the tag of favourites, but in the last three editions – since that famous Andrés Iniesta winner against the Netherlands back in 2010 – they have been eliminated before the quarter-final stage each time. Those eliminations have been summed up by a mixture of frustration, cruel misfortune and the downright bizarre.
Amazingly, for such a strong footballing nation, Spain have won only three of their 11 games in the men’s World Cup since their 2010 triumph, only defeating Australia, Iran and Costa Rica. That’s a win rate of just 27%.
In 2014, as they looked to defend their crown as world champions, they were knocked out in the group stage after losing 5-1 to the Netherlands and 2-0 to Chile before a dead-rubber victory over Australia in their final game.
At the 2018 World Cup, they were knocked out by hosts Russia in the last 16 after limping through the group stage with one win and two draws. That came after coach Julen Lopetegui was sacked on the eve of the tournament after agreeing to become Real Madrid boss post tournament.
In the most recent edition, they thrashed Costa Rica 7-0 before drawing with Germany and losing to Japan in the group stage. They were put out of their misery by Morocco in the last 16 on penalties, missing all three of their attempts in the shootout against the tournament’s surprise package.
But this time, according to the Opta supercomputer, things will be different. And it’s hard to disagree.
In 2014, there was a sad and sobering realisation that a glorious era was ending. In 2018, the circumstances made success impossible. And in 2022, lacking a true superstar in the team, Luis Enrique played the role, and not begrudgingly.
But now, with the 2026 World Cup on the horizon, the emergence of Lamine Yamal and the strength in depth within the squad, De la Fuente has overseen a smooth acceleration of expectation.
The average age of Spain’s starting XI during the qualifiers for this tournament was just 26 years, 137 days old – the 10th youngest of the 54 UEFA nations, and younger than all the other European teams considered contenders to win the tournament next summer. The only players in the Spain team over 30 to have played significant minutes across the qualification campaign were Aymeric Laporte (270) and Marcos Llorente (150).
They’re sufficiently experienced, dangerously talented and ready for a tilt at the World Cup.
Three-Year Dominance
Spain are the reigning European champions, having dominated their opposition from start to finish in Germany two years ago. They won six of their seven matches inside normal time and disposed of the hosts in extra-time.
As Opta Analyst’s Ali Tweedale wrote the day after Spain’s Euro 2024 victory: “They were the most entertaining team to watch, the highest scorers, the best pressers, and by far the most coherent football team. Almost every other side at Euro 2024 either looked entirely disjointed or put in the odd disjointed performance. Spain simply clicked.”
They scored four more goals than anyone else (15) at the tournament, and they also ranked first for non-penalty goals per game (2.1), were clear at the top of the charts for expected goals (13.0), and they outperformed everyone else for goals compared to xG, with an overperformance of 2.0.
Including games at Euro 2024, Spain are now unbeaten in their last 31 competitive games (W25 D6, excluding penalty shootouts), beating the famous 30-match run they enjoyed under Vicente del Bosque between 2010 and 2013 – a streak that saw them win both the World Cup and the Euros.
They also made it to the UEFA Nations League final, taking the lead twice only to be pegged back twice before Portugal won on penalties.
They are the world’s dominant international team as things stand.
Spain’s Style Of Play
Spain’s status as favourites isn’t a mystery given the aforementioned statistics. But the secret to their consistency comes from how they play.
“The secret is excellent work in football in general. In the top clubs and in the federation, there is a specific idea and model of play,” De la Fuente said before their 2-2 draw with Turkey in Seville last month.
Spain operate with a cohesion more typical of a club side than an international team. Under Luis Enrique, they leaned hard into possession dominance and a ferocious high-pressing style.
Against Morocco in 2022, they had 76.7% possession but were infamously feeble in attack. They attempted just 13 total shots worth just 1.01 xG, but most laughably they could only attempt one shot on target across 120 minutes. The warning signs were there in their previous two games, posting a combined xG total of just 1.49 across the two matches with Germany and Japan despite averaging 75% possession overall.
De la Fuente has settled them into a middle ground. They still look to control the ball, especially against weaker sides, but they’re more direct than the old tiki-taka template and less extreme than Luis Enrique’s version.
Their numbers back that balance. They had 70.4% possession across qualifying, which was fourth behind England, Germany and Portugal, and they recorded both the second-highest non-penalty xG per 90 (2.97, behind only Portugal) and second-lowest non-pen xG against per 90 (0.41, behind only England).
What stands out most, though, is the absence of anything flashy or extreme. Spain look like they’re cruising. There has been no tactical revolution or dramatic stylistic swing since Lopetegui and Luis Enrique. They are just a steady, confident team playing the most coherent football on the international stage. Contrast that with England, who have rolled the dice on Thomas Tuchel, a coach with a far more rigid and overtly defined philosophy.
Strength In Depth
Spain have 334 players playing across Europe’s top five leagues, by far the most of any nation. France are second with 262. The depth of La Roja’s selection options is astounding and only ever seems to get better.
Their true strength is in midfield, where their options are astonishing.
They have Pedri, Rodri and Martín Zubimendi at the base of midfield, arguably three of the five best deep-lying midfielders in the world.
Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz and Álex Baena play further forward, and then there’s another group of players in midfield who can offer everything in between, from Aleix García and Fermín López, to the emerging Pablo Barrios.
In any given game, they have solutions in midfield to make the opposition uncomfortable.
Attacking Doubts?
The one big doubt about Spain heading into the tournament is their lack of a pure number nine, and it’s not a new problem. Samu Aghehowa might solve that issue in time but is only 21 and played just 73 minutes during the qualifiers.
France and England both have little doubt who will be leading the line, with Kylian Mbappé (16 goals) and Harry Kane (14) two of the three top scorers across the top five European leagues this season with Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.
For Spain, however, it’ll likely be Mikel Oyarzabal, who isn’t an out-and-out striker at all. He played the most minutes of all Spain attackers during the qualifiers, though Jorge De Frutos and Ferran Torres, among other options, can also play through the middle if required.
But if Spain’s strength is in midfield, what truly tips the scales in their favour is the players on the wing. Either side of Oyarzabal, they boast two of the best dribblers in the world in Yamal and Nico Williams. Yamal created the most chances at Euro 2024 with 19, while only Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0.
Yamal is completing six take-ons per 90 this season, which leads all players in Europe’s top five leagues (min. 500 minutes played). Williams is eighth among the same group with 3.4 successful take-ons/90. The resources teams have to deploy to stop Spain’s two wingers reduces the burden on the central attacking players.
And that’s before we get to one of the most versatile players in the world at the moment in Merino.
It was his headed goal against Germany that saw Spain through the trickiest game of their Euro 2024 campaign. He scored six goals in six World Cup qualifying games and has netted five with three assists for Arsenal this season, the club scene’s dominant team currently.
Merino is the ultimate box-crashing midfielder and also plays as a number nine from time to time. With the supporting cast from midfield and the brilliance they have on the wings, the lack of a striker shouldn’t hold Spain back, as it hasn’t in the few years since De la Fuente took over.
Navigating the World Cup Challenge
A World Cup is a very specific challenge. From 11 June until 19 July next summer, a record 48 teams from six confederations will play across 16 host cities. It’s a short and intense sprint to the finish line, with an injury or two potentially derailing the hopes and dreams of entire nations.
The Opta supercomputer knows this. In fact, all other logic suggests Spain should be even heavier favourites. But there will be obstacles in the form of injuries, lack of form at the wrong time, refereeing decisions that don’t go their way and wasted chances.
Then you have Lionel Messi and Argentina, vying to become the first team since Brazil (1958, 1962) to retain the World Cup; Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, who will be gunning for one last hurrah; Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and France with their own supply of other-worldly talent; and dare we add England to the conversation, looking for their first men’s World Cup title in 60 years.
Ahead of the 2022 tournament, Opta’s supercomputer deemed France as the likeliest winners (17.9%) and they were within a penalty shootout of proving that prediction to be accurate. Argentina were the victors, however, and they were only rated as the eighth-likeliest side to win the World Cup (6.5%).
Tournament football can throw up many shocks and surprises; Spain will just hope the supercomputer prediction comes true.
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Why Are Spain Favourites to Win the 2026 World Cup? Opta Analyst.
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