Russia claims to have captured the key Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, as US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss a possible end to the war.
The Ukrainian military denies that Russian forces have captured all of Pokrovsk, which has been fought over for more than a year with massive casualties on each side. Putin hailed the victory as he seeks to strengthen Russia’s bargaining position in peace talks by reinforcing the belief that the military advantage has shifted decisively towards Moscow.
Yet even the maximum Russian demands – expressed in a 28-point US-Russian peace plan since watered down under European and Ukrainian pressure – still fall far short of original Russian goals when Putin ordered his army to invade Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The attack was supposed to capture Kyiv and the east of Ukraine, turning the country into a Russian client state.
Putin’s purpose was decisively and irreversibly defeated nearly four years ago. In reality, Russia would need a full victory on the battlefield to recover from its humiliating failure in 2022. All that Ukraine needs to do is not to lose the battle in order to win.
Assessing the chances of success of US-orchestrated peace talks is made more complicated by the fact that neither Zelensky nor Putin want to offend Trump by directly opposing his framework for peace. Instead, they agree in general terms to what is proposed, but say that they must negotiate further on matters of detail, or they insert preconditions they know the other side will reject.
Russia is demanding, as part of any peace package, that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remaining corner of Donetsk that they still hold. But, even if Russia controlled the whole Donbas, once a heavily industrialised region, they would be masters of a region of abandoned coal mines and ageing steel mills, which cannot function again without massive investment.
Trump and US Vice President JD Vance say that Zelensky does “not have the cards” to fight the war ad infinitum, while Russia has the superior resources enabling it to sustain an attritional war. This argument has more force than critics of Trump are willing to admit because the way the war is fought has been totally transformed since 2022.
Drones are today the queens of the battlefield. Concentrations of tanks, vehicles and infantry cannot be concealed and invite devastating drone strikes. Soldiers in the frontline holding static, heavily fortified positions cannot be supplied with ammunition, food and reinforcements, nor can the wounded be evacuated.
Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk and the nearby city of Myrnohrad have been supplied by unmanned ground drones providing an essential lifeline, but two out of three of them are reportedly detected and destroyed by Russian troops before they reach their destination.
Success in this new type of war is not measured by advances or retreats, but by the horrific level of casualties inflicted on the other side. The 800-mile-long front line in Ukraine has come to resemble the Western Front in the First World War, with neither side able to make a strategic breakthrough.
Russia has not so far been able to penetrate the Ukrainian frontline, but it has gained the upper hand in the drone war according to the Wall Street Journal, which cites Ukrainian analysts and front line soldiers as saying that Russia’s newfound ability to sever Ukrainian supply lines up to 40 miles behind the front “was the most important shift in the war in 2025…more significant than Russian forces’ incremental gains in territory.”
Previously, Ukraine had superiority in the use of drones, but has lost this advantage over the last year because of improved Russian tactics and its ability to deploy far more drones than Ukraine. At Pokrovsk, Ukrainian soldiers are quoted as saying that Russian drones outnumber Ukrainian ones by 10 to one.
The Russians also suffered heavy casualties and have not yet made a strategic breakthrough – something very costly for the attacking side. Nevertheless, US generals have sought to persuade Ukrainian leaders that their military situation can only deteriorate further – and that now is the best moment to make a deal.
But the maximum Ukrainian concessions are likely to be far less than the Russians will accept as sufficient for them to end a war that they believe they are winning. Moscow is likely to turn down a ceasefire because its ongoing military offensive is its strongest card.
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But the meeting of Witkoff and Kushner with Putin on Tuesday must still be taken seriously, simply because it is backed by Trump personally. The US has been putting intense pressure on Zelensky to agree to concessions in recent weeks, using the corruption scandal engulfing his Government as a pressure point.
The resignation of Zelensky’s previously all-powerful chief of staff, Andrii Yermak, after his flat was searched by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), is suspected by experts on Ukraine of being precipitated by the US. They point out that NABU has a close working relationship with the FBI and that Zelensky tried and failed to take control of it this summer.
The balance of forces in this conflict is gradually, but not inexorably, tipping towards Moscow. But, until one side or the other decides that they have no chance of victory and face inevitable defeat, it will be very difficult for them to agree on a deal for peace.
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