First travels to second in the Premier League on Sunday, so we ask: how does history suggest the result will impact the title battle?
‘Top-of-the-table clash’ is a phrase we hear so often in anticipation of a big match in football that it would make sense to many if the top two teams faced off fairly regularly.
It turns out, though, it is actually – and perhaps unsurprisingly given how much broadcasters want to ramp up excitement around their product – a fairly loosely used term. In the history of the Premier League, first has faced second just 54 times. This being the 34th season of the competition, that’s an average of just 1.6 times per campaign.
And many of those instances have been almost entirely inconsequential and arguably shouldn’t even be considered here, as we’re only really interested in title battles. Four of them took place inside the first five games of the season, for example, while five more of them involved two teams who would both go on to finish outside the top two. Three of those involved one team who finished 13th or lower in the table.
This weekend, first travel to second as Chelsea host Arsenal in the first true top-of-the-table clash of 2025-26 and the first meaningful meeting of the top two since November 2023, when Manchester City played Liverpool in the early stages of 2023-24. The top two did meet last season, but Liverpool vs Arsenal came in May, after the former had already wrapped up the Premier League title.
It’s not yet clear whether Sunday’s game will have consequences for the title battle. We are only 12 games into this season, and while it feels pretty certain Arsenal will finish in the top two positions – given a 93.3% chance of doing so by the Opta supercomputer – if not the top one, Chelsea have a lot of work to do to truly be in the race. That was a topic we discussed earlier this week after Enzo Maresca’s side continued their impressive run by brushing Spanish giants Barcelona aside in the Champions League.
But Chelsea are second on merit and come into this game in form, on a run of five wins from six in the Premier League. They will pose a formidable challenge to Arsenal and, knowing a win would cut the gap at the top to an eminently overhaulable three points, may go into this game believing they are in the title race.
So, how significant would a Chelsea win be? And how frequently does the team in second place beat the team leading the chase? Meanwhile, would a win for first-placed Arsenal over their closest challengers render the title race over before we are even into December?
In 54 previous meetings between the top two in the Premier League, there is a perfect split between victories for the first-placed side and the second-placed team. Each have won 20 times (37.0%), with the remaining 14 drawn. History suggests the result has major consequences in the title race.
Of the 20 occasions that first have beaten second in the Premier League era, the first-placed team and the winner of that meeting has gone on to win the title 17 times (85%). When the meeting has been drawn (14 times), the first-placed team have held on to top spot 11 times (78.6%). That means if the team in first place avoids defeat when facing second place, they go on to win the title 82.4% of the time.
However, when first have lost a top-of-the-table clash, they’ve gone on to win the title on six out of 20 occasions (30%). The second-placed team, meanwhile, have then gone on to win the title on nine of 20 occasions (45%).
It’s worth saying here that the relationship between winning this match and winning the title might not be entirely causal. It’s not necessarily true that first-placed teams go on to win the title in any way because they beat second place. They might have just beaten second place because they were better than them.
If Arsenal beat Chelsea on Sunday – as many would expect them to – they will probably do so because they are the better team. Chelsea are a very young side – the youngest in the Premier League, with an average starting XI age of 24 years, 169 days – and they still have problems with inconsistency. They lost only last month at home to Sunderland and drew at Azerbaijani side Qarabag only a few weeks ago.
But with the title looking increasingly like it is heading to Arsenal for the first time in two decades, Chelsea resemble one of the few remaining obstacles to Mikel Arteta’s side. They may need to win this match if they are to keep any hint of a title race alive. The history books suggest meetings between the top two this far into a season carry even greater weight.
When first beats second after 13 matchdays or more, their success rate in the title race goes up to 91.7% (11 of 12), with Arsenal in 2002-03 the only exception. They ended up finishing second to Manchester United that season having beaten second-placed Chelsea in January. If Arsenal win this one, they will take some catching.
Interestingly, though, on the last five occasions that first have played second in the Premier League, first have failed to win. Two of those were Arsenal, who lost twice to second-placed Manchester City during the final months of 2022-23. In fact, Arsenal haven’t been top and beaten second place since that game against Chelsea in January 2003.
So, facing the same opposition on Sunday, can Arsenal end that drought and take what would appear to be a gigantic step towards winning the Premier League? Win, and history suggests the result could be decisive.
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Chelsea vs Arsenal and What 1st Facing 2nd Means for the Premier League Title Race Opta Analyst.
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