Ahead of Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff ranking release, the Crimson Tide did not move after Saturday’s 56-0 win over Eastern Illinois.
The committee once again slotted Alabama in at No. 10, but there are several scenarios where a Crimson Tide victory over Auburn does not clinch a playoff spot, instead putting all sights on Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game the following week.
Scenario One: Win Out
The easiest and, quite frankly, least stressful of all playoff scenarios is to beat Auburn and either Texas A&M or Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Knocking off either an undefeated Texas A&M or one-loss Georgia, which has to beat Georgia Tech first, would likely result in a first round bye. However, there is a small likelihood that the Crimson Tide ends up hosting a playoff game after winning the SEC.
To end up hosting, the committee would have to rank the Big 10 Champion and runner-up, likely Ohio State and Indiana; the Big 12 Champion, Texas Tech; either Georgia or Texas A&M, whichever one does not make the SEC title game; and one of, or both, Oregon and Oklahoma ahead of Alabama. This would likely result in a matchup against either the ACC or Group of Five champion at home.
Scenario Two: SEC Championship loss
If Alabama comes out of Auburn with the win, it is guaranteed a spot in the SEC Championship Game, but the Crimson Tide could lose in Atlanta.
Fans can look back to the precedent set in last year’s pilot-edition of the 12-team playoff when SMU lost its conference title game to Clemson and remained in the field over Alabama. The committee could honor this if Alabama were to lose to an undefeated Texas A&M or a rematch with Georgia.
There is also a chance the committee ignores this precedent.
Vanderbilt, BYU, Miami and Utah are sitting on the bubble with a 10-2 record in their grasp, and each of the latter three could jump Alabama without playing during the conference championship. Vanderbilt likely wouldn’t jump Alabama after losing the head-to-head.
BYU will likely have a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, and if BYU wins, Texas Tech could remain above a 10-3 Alabama in the rankings. A BYU loss could eliminate Utah as well, since the Cougars have the head-to-head in that matchup. A BYU win and an Alabama loss could sneak the Utes into the field if they take care of Kansas.
Miami has almost no path to the ACC Championship game, but the committee could see the Hurricanes as a team on the rise if they beat a likely-ranked Pitt team Saturday.
If the Crimson Tide loses a competitive SEC Championship Game, it will likely need a Texas Tech win over BYU. A Pitt upset over Miami could theoretically clinch a spot in the dance for Alabama if the team takes care of business on the Plains.
Scenario Three: Iron Bowl loss
An Iron Bowl loss would basically end Alabama’s hopes of a College Football Playoff berth.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Crimson Tide just a 2% shot if it loses Saturday.
Making the playoffs in this scenario would likely require a Pitt win over Miami, a Tennessee win over Vanderbilt, a Kansas win over Utah, a Stanford win over Notre Dame and a Texas A&M win over Texas, and that’s not even discussing the following Saturday.
With that being said, the path is simple for Alabama — just win.
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