Can you be surprised by the size of a contract if your prediction was that the size of the contract would be surprising?
From the jump, we knew Dylan Cease was likely to get a deal that dramatically outpaced his actual production on the field in 2023-2025, when his 4.18 ERA was 2% worse than league average. His peripherals were obviously much better than that, he’s got stuff for days, premium velocity, and teams have for years dreamed on what he could be.
Still, I didn’t think he would top $200 million, as he reportedly just has with the World Series runner-up Toronto Blue Jays:
Right-hander Dylan Cease and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a seven-year, $210 million contract, pending a physical, sources tell ESPN. The defending American League champions get one of the best arms on the free agent market.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 26, 2025I would’ve loved to have Dylan Cease on the Cubs – even if I wasn’t subtle in my concerns about his potential long-term value drop-off – but they were never, ever going to sign him to that kind of deal. There’s just no evidence in their history for it, especially in the last eight years.
Also … that contract could be an absolute dog, man. I know, I know, you pay what the market says, and I know there’s a chance Cease was a beast in 2022. But the Blue Jays are practically paying him for seven years of that guy in advance. I say God bless, and may the Cubs turn their sights elsewhere.
Speaking of which, the question going forward: is Cease just a particularly strong bet in the Blue Jays’ eyes, or is this a further indication that the market for starting pitchers could be explosive? We know there are a lot of quality options out there, but are the prices going to continue to escalate? That Sonny Gray trade had me wondering (one year of Gray is costing the Red Sox $20 million plus two quality borderline back-end-top-100 prospectst), and this Cease contract certainly isn’t dissuading me.
The Cubs could still look at Tatsuya Imai or Michael King or Ranger Suarez or a Sandy Alcantara trade or an Edward Cabrera trade … and I could keep going. There are still a lot of front-half options out there, and the Cubs really need to be sure they land one.
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