The flurry of late-night phone calls between Washington and Moscow this week has injected a boost of momentum into Donald Trump’s 28-point draft peace plan now being hammered out by officials in Abu Dhabi.
The document has been “fine-tuned” with input from “both sides,” according to US officials, and is believed to be the most concrete step towards ending the war in Ukraine since the invasion began. But in European capitals, leaders and diplomats have watched negotiations unfold with as much apprehension as hope.
A peace deal for Ukraine does not mean a secure Europe, as one NATO official has warned “the biggest strategic risk2 would be to “off-ramp” our defenses in Europe.
There are differing views about the contents of the deal, whether it offers Ukraine enough, or if it clinches Putin a victory in the hands of defeat. But senior military, diplomatic and intelligence figures across the continent agree on one thing; a peace deal, any peace deal, will only intensify the continent’s confrontation with Vladimir Putin.
Over the past several months, Europe has witnessed an escalation in Russian hybrid aggression. Spy ships and covert vessels have probed energy infrastructure in the North and Baltic Seas, unmarked drones have slipped into NATO airspace, and a network of “gig-economy” proxies has been recruited to sabotage factories, light fires in transport depots, and disrupt public services.
European leaders who were previously hesitant to speak publicly about the scale of Russia’s covert operations, are now acknowledging what their intelligence agencies have been briefing for months – the war in Ukraine is not the sum of Europe’s confrontation with Russia. It is merely one theatre of a much broader contest.
Confrontations with Russia may ‘ramp up’
After a Russian spy ship threatened to enter UK waters and attempted to “blind” pilots with military-grade lasers, Defence Secretary John Healey finally spoke Putin’s language. “We are ready”, he warned the Russian President.
But confrontations with Russia, senior officials warn, will not let up if Kyiv and Moscow put pen to paper on Donald Trump’s proposed deal.
In fact, they say, it may “ramp up”.
A senior NATO official told The i Paper that “the biggest strategic risk is that we take a peace deal—good, bad or ugly—as an opportunity to off-ramp on the delivery of our plans for deterrence and defence in Europe.”
They added bluntly: “It would be a massive error.”
There are concerns that a peace deal with Ukraine may free up the Kremlin’s bandwidth to look westward. A Russian air strike on Ternopil killed at least 25, including three children, officials said (Photo: Yurko Dyachyshyn/AFP)There are fears across European intelligence services and NATO that Putin will interpret a peace agreement as validation of his illegal invasion of Ukraine. The war, they argue, should already serve as a “reality check” for governments still clinging to the notion that dialogue will temper Putin’s ambitions.
After all, Putin insisted their were no plans to invade Ukraine after illegally taking Crimea in 2014 – a lie he repeated just weeks before launching his full-scale invasion in 2022.
“Russia’s word is meaningless,” said one senior military adviser.
Europe is preparing for a Russian move on its territory
Compounding concerns is the shift in Washington’s stance. Once the great defender of Europe in the face of Putin’s playground bully tactics, Trump’s disregard for European leaders throughout his negotiations with Moscow have served as a wake-up call, effectively relinquishing US support for Ukraine’s resistance and resetting its defence relationship with Europe.
While the White House insists it remains committed to NATO, Europe’s intelligence officials say the continent must now shoulder the burden of its own security.
Countries bordering Russia and Belarus have wasted little time adjusting to that reality. Over recent weeks, NATO commanders have held meetings with military leaders on Europe’s eastern flank to advance plans for a large-scale “drone wall” – a state-of-the-art defensive line designed to counter the Kremlin’s unconventional use of drones.
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The project will be costly and require significant resources from at least five NATO allies, but the commitment reflects a sober indication that Europe is preparing for the possibility of a Russian move on its territory.
Military experts and insiders believe that Putin could attempt an attack on the continent within the next three years. Crucially, that assessment does not hinge on whether a peace deal is reached in Ukraine.
If anything, they warn, a “temporary patch of peace” may simply free up the Kremlin’s bandwidth to look westward.
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