This week’s Budget is surely the make-or-break moment for Keir Starmer’s Government. Labour MPs are close to open revolt, the party is expecting a drubbing in 2026’s local elections, and months of Budget pre-briefing have led to a virtually unprecedented U-turn on income tax before the speech is even delivered.
In such circumstances, you might expect the Prime Minister to be spending the day before the Budget locked in with Rachel Reeves, going over the details and the delivery of the Budget in minute detail, given his premiership is on the line.
Instead, Starmer is once again focused squarely on foreign affairs – first reporting back to parliament on the events of the G20 in South Africa, and then hosting a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing” on Ukraine.
The realities of the modern premiership is that much of the job involves dealing with the rest of the world – it’s a common criticism of longstanding prime ministers that they become increasingly obsessed with international affairs. But Starmer has been in office for just 16 months, was not a foreign affairs expert before coming into office, and has no shortage of problems at home. Is the Prime Minister merely engaged in escapism?
There is no doubt that Ukraine is an immensely important issue – a life-or-death shooting war in Europe, with a would-be ally desperately trying to resist an unprovoked invasion by Russia. The question is whether Starmer’s contribution today is actually essential, or even important, to what is happening there.
Starmer is “hosting” a call between nations styled as the “coalition of the willing”, a foreign affairs term that came to public attention during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, at which point it meant those nations willing to support America’s controversial war against Saddam Hussein.
Today, the question is surely: “willing” to do what? The nations of the “coalition” agree very little, including the extent of sanctions on Russia, or financial support for Ukraine, let alone whether or not they’d be willing to risk their own troops to guarantee any peace deal agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Despite murmurings of progress on a deal, the grouping could easily look like a sideshow at the best of times – but this week in particular, Starmer’s convening looks like little more than an irrelevance. The US and Ukraine have been engaged directly in frenetic negotiations in the wake of a supposed 28-point “peace deal” agreed by US envoy Steve Witkoff and Russia.
No one involved wants to look like they’re saying no to a peace deal Trump has endorsed. As a result, Ukraine has reportedly managed to slim down the deal to 19 points – with several of those substantially amended – and said they’re ready to agree to it.
It’s a typically Trumpian situation: if you don’t look too closely, we’re on the verge of peace. Russia has signalled it will agree to one deal, Ukraine has said it will agree to another. Problem solved, until anyone tries to actually pin it down. The result is likely to be another standoff and more conflict – but both sides will be trying to make sure Trump blames the other.
It’s not clear what Starmer has managed to contribute to this ongoing mess, nor why it needed his attention so urgently. The danger is that it contributes to a growing sense that the Prime Minister, beleaguered at home, is kidding himself as to what he’s achieving on the world stage.
Starmer’s visit to the Oval Office, during which he produced an invitation for Trump to have an unprecedented second State Visit, was hyped by the government as a triumph that secured the UK an advantageous position on tariffs. A few months later, now that the dust has settled, that hasn’t proven true. The UK has an almost identical deal to the rest of the EU, with other countries like Switzerland having secured better side deals, not least through giving Trump lavish gifts, including gold bars.
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The Starmer Government similarly hyped its achievements in securing deals on defence with the EU, as the bloc agreed a new €150bn (£88bn) mechanism for defence procurement – but once again, after the handshakes were done, the UK is largely locked out of this, too.
The stolid Starmer might be temperamentally as different from Trump as it’s possible to be, but there is a risk his role on the world stage looks uncannily similar. Trump boasts of agreeing on peace deals between countries that were never at war and solving crises that he had created. Starmer boasts of playing a major role on the world stage, when in reality the UK is at best a bit-part player.
Starmer would hardly be the first UK Prime Minister to overestimate his influence on a US President or his power on the world stage. But for a leader as beset with domestic crises as he is, the distraction could prove fatal.
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