Falling mortgage rates are getting Southern California house hunters in a slightly better shopping mood.
My trusty spreadsheet combined September sales data for the six-county region from Attom with mortgage rate patterns from Freddie Mac and found it was the busiest September since 2022.
The mild buying burst is clearly rate-driven, as a shaky job market and declining consumer confidence aren’t providing much support for homebuying. Ponder the rate rollercoaster that brought a three-month moving average of 30-year fixed loan rates to 6.55% in September, the lowest since November 2024 and far below the recent high of 7.42% in November 2023.
Do not forget that this rate benchmark sank to 2.73% in January 2021 as the Federal Reserve launched efforts to stabilize a pandemic-wracked economy. Unfortunately, that historically cheap financing whipsawed housing and helped create an inflation boom.
The cost-of-living pain required the Fed to reverse course in 2022, raising the rates it controls until this summer. Then, a wobbly economy and moderate inflation nudged the Fed to cut rates, helping mortgage rates move slightly lower. Cheaper money can turn some house hunters into owners, but it’s no affordability panacea.
Here are 11 ways Southern California house hunters reacted to these gyrations, as seen in September’s homebuying data …
1. Buying bumps: September saw a modest gain, 14,590 sales closed for houses and condos, existing residences and new construction. That’s up 4% over the past year.
2. It’s relative: However, this was the fourth-slowest September since 2005. Four years ago, sales were 24,392, which is 67% higher. And September 2025 homebuying was 25% below the 21-year average for the month.
3. Prices remain lofty: Buyers are still paying up. The region’s median selling price of $810,000 is the 10th-highest on record. The median is up 3% over the past year and is only 2% below its all-time high of $830,000 in June 2025.
4. Payments dip: Look at what house hunters really track, the monthly cost. An estimated monthly house payment of $4,119 was calculated by combining recent rates and the median price, assuming a 20% down payment. September’s payment was down 5% from the May 2024 peak of $4,327. Let’s not forget, though, the payment yardstick is up 79% in four years.
5. More choices: House hunters had an average of 39,814 Southern California existing homes for sale to choose from in the three months ended in September, according to Realtor.com. That was 35% more listings in a year. Note that ultra-low pandemic-era rates coincided with thin supply. Listings have grown by 98% over the past 4 years.
6. Condos stagnant: The market’s cheaper dwellings aren’t as popular as you might think. The 3,490 sales in September were up only 0.3% in the year. And the $665,000 median price was the 21st-highest on record, up only 1% in a year, and is 5% below the high of $700,000 in February 2025. Association fees and numerous operational issues may scare off some buyers.
7. Houses heat up: Southern California’s 11,100 single-family home sales in September represent a 5% gain in the year. The $865,000 median was the eighth-highest and up 3% year over year, and just 2% below the $885,000 record set in June 2025. Buyers who can consider this price level may gain more from falling rates.
8. Weak inland pace: Sales were sluggish in the region’s most affordable counties. San Bernardino’s 1,781 sales were down 13% year over year, while its median of $520,250 remained flat over 12 months. Riverside had 2,261 sales, up 1% in the year. Its $586,500 median was down 1% year over year. The Inland Empire’s lower household incomes may not be helped as much by moderately lower mortgage rates.
9. Coastal sales cooking: House hunters were more active in counties closer to the Pacific, where low rates may be more of a boost to the area’s bigger incomes. San Diego’s 2,385 sales were up 11% year over year, while the median price of $875,000 remained flat. Los Angeles’ 5,511 sales were up 9% with a $900,000 median up 4% in a year. Ventura’s 579 sales were up 4%, while the $838,000 median rose 1% over the year. And Orange’s 2,073 sales were up 3% year over year, with the median price of $1.18 million unchanged.
10. Equals California: Buyers statewide upped sales on par with Southern California. California’s 27,933 sales were up 4% in a year. It was the fourth-slowest September and 66% below September 2021. The $739,850 median was up 2% year over year and only 1% off the $750,000 record set in May 2024.
11. Not as sluggish nationwide: U.S. buyers haven’t been as anxious. It could be the lower pricing. They bought 339,867 residences in September, up 2% year over year and only 9% below average. The $361,058 median is up 2% in a year and just 2% below the $370,000 high in June 2025.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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