It’s only November 18, and I feel like I’ve done the “Alex Bregman preamble” a hundred times already. Unfortunately, it’s all important context for any Alex Bregman discussion (which we’re about to have), so we’ll do it one more time today. As a reminder, Bregman opted out of his deal with the Red Sox earlier this month, making him a free agent again this winter, this time, detached from draft pick compensation.
Okay, here’s the low-down: (1) Because the Cubs will lose Kyle Tucker to free agency this offseason, they could stand to add some offense this winter. (2) However, because they have “regulars” at just about every position around the diamond, there are not many obvious opportunities/positions for a free agent to play. (3) Thus, the most realistic place to add a free agent bat is third base, where the rookie Matt Shaw just started to emerge last season, but wasn’t particularly consistent.
(4) Adding a third baseman would necessarily displace Shaw in 2026, but Shaw could be a very useful super utility player for one season (the Cubs bench offered very little in 2025), plus there are positions opening up by outgoing Cubs free agents after next season, including the infield. In other words, easing Shaw in this way, even if you are his biggest believer, is hardly malpractice. The 2026 season also figures to be pretty “all-in” for the Cubs, because they’re losing a lot of talent next October.
(5) Among the free agent third base market, you’ll find Alex Bregman, a guy the Cubs tried to sign last winter (so we know they like him to the extent of a $100M+ offer less than a year ago) and have already been connected to this offseason. Bregman also happens to be right-handed, which fits well inside a Cubs lineup that should feature lefties Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ (switch-hitter) in the top half of the order.
Cool? Okay, here’s the new rumor.
© Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn ImagesAlex Bregman and the Cubs?
This morning at ESPN, Jeff Passan dropped a holy load of MLB rumors, covering just about every player, team, free agent, and trade you could want. If you read anything today, make it that. And in that article, he kept the Cubs connection to free agent third baseman Alex Bregman alive.
It’s light, but it’s from Passan, so I’m inclined to take it seriously.
The Red Sox love Bregman, who opted out of the final two years and $80 million of his contract, and won’t close the door on a reunion despite having Marcelo Mayer ready to play third. Detroit and Chicago, which pursued him last winter but came up short, will rejoin the fray, with Philadelphia lurking as it juggles multiple potential paths.
There’s not a ton to it, but it’s enough to keep this path alive, even as all other rumors (including comments from President Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins) point the Cubs toward pitching. As for the other suitors, some thoughts:
Boston’s interest in retaining Bregman is well-documented. But as Passan mentions, they do have alternatives and have also been connected to other free-agent third basemen like Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, as well as other pricey free-agent hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso. The Phillies are facing a lot of pressure to retain Kyle Schwarber and also have Alec Bohm at third base. That said, Bohm is not a one-to-one for Bregman, obviously, and has been included in some recent trade rumors. Plus, the Phillies always spend. The Tigers may make sense in theory, but until they decide officially to keep Tarik Skubal, I’m not sure I see them pursuing an older free agent.With all that in mind, let’s check out how Alex Bregman performed last year, how he projects in 2026, what’s expected to earn, and what the Cubs lineup might look like with him on the team.
Dan Hamilton-Imagn ImagesAlex Bregman’s 2025 Season, 2026 Projections
Last February, Bregman signed a three-year, $120M deal with the Red Sox, including opt-outs after 2026 and 2027 and also a ton of deferrals. So after a solid first year in Boston (which included a lengthy quad injury that kept him from playing in the All-Star game), he’s back on the market.
Pre-injury (226 PAs): .299/.385/.553 (156 wRC+); 11 HRs; 18.6 K% Post-injury (269 PAs): .250/.338/.386 (100 wRC+); 7 HRs, 10.4 K% Overall: .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+); 18 HRs, 14.1 K%As you can see, Bregman was a lot better before the injury, but there were some positive peripherals beneath that league-average second half of his year. Specifically, he walked (29 BBs) more than he struck out (28), he hit the ball hard (41.6 hard%), and he kept it off the ground (39.7 GB%). But we shouldn’t split hairs too finely here – he was clearly and significantly better before the injury, and you do have to wonder if there are any long-term impacts there, especially as he enters his age-32 season.
To that end, and according to the Steamer forecast on FanGraphs, the 2026 version of Alex Bregman projects to be a ~top-50 hitter in baseball next season, slashing .261/.346/.440 (119 wRC+) with just a 13.8% strikeout rate and 23 homers.
Compared to the Cubs’ third base production last year (ranked 4th worst in MLB), that would be a significant jump: .219/.285/.336 (76 wRC+). And for what it’s worth, Bregman rates pretty highly on defense, too.
Alex Bregman Contract Projections
There is a bit of a wide range on Alex Bregman’s next contract, but everyone seems to agree that it’ll be well north of $100M.
MLB Trade Rumors: Six years, $160M ($26.67M AAV) FG (Clemens): Four years, $140M ($35M AAV) FG (Crowdsource): Five years, $155M ($31M AAV) The Athletic (Britton): Six years, $171M ($28.5M) ESPN (McDaniel): Five Years, $160M ($32M AAV)Between the average length and AAV seen above, we can set the over/under around five years and $150M. Given what we know about the Cubs’ financial and contractual M.O., that feels above their comfort zone (at least, in years). As a pure guess, I’d wager any Cubs offer maxes out at four years, albeit at a competitive AAV.
And while even that might seem like a high price to pay for Alex Bregman ages 32-26, remember two things: (1) the Cubs already have a TON of payroll space heading into next season and a TON (x2) more coming off the books after 2026, as so many players are set to hit free agency: Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, plus potentially Carson Kelly and Colin Rea.
So “overpaying” for a position player in hopes that he can help the most in 2026 isn’t an outrageous proposition.
In any case, I suspect the Cubs will begin their offseason focus on the starting pitching market, both in free agency and trade. If they were to make only one big-money addition this winter, that’s where I’d expect it to be. Even still, Jeff Passan tends not to miss, and he believes the Cubs will re-engage with Alex Bregman this winter.
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