Look ahead to Sunday’s World Cup qualifier at Arena Kombëtare with our Albania vs England prediction and preview. Can Thomas Tuchel make it eight wins from eight in Group K?
Albania vs England: The Key Stats
England are backed to finish their World Cup qualifying campaign with another win, coming out on top in 68.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations. Albania have lost all seven of their matches against England, with every single one of them coming in World Cup qualifiers. England have kept a clean sheet in each of their last nine competitive internationals, winning all of them.England’s place in next year’s World Cup is already wrapped up, but Thomas Tuchel will not let them take their foot off the gas ahead of their final qualifier in Albania.
The Three Lions have been perfect so far, winning all seven of their games in Group K, and they now have the opportunity to round off the qualifying campaign in style.
A 2-0 win over Serbia saw England win a ninth competitive match in all competitions without conceding a single goal, and they’ll be putting that record on the line against Albania, who secured their play-off spot with a 1-0 defeat of Andorra on Thursday.
Only one European nation has ever won more consecutive competitive matches without conceding, with Spain winning 10 in a row between October 2014 and June 2016. Tuchel’s side can match that run on Sunday.
During that run, they’ve faced just nine shots on target – five of which were against Greece in the first of those nine games last November, when they were led by Lee Carsley.
However, under Tuchel, England have faced only 28 shots and three on target, which equates to just four shots and 0.43 on target faced per match. They have never faced more than one effort on target in a single game.
In fact, they have played four matches without facing a single shot on target, which is more than any other side in World Cup qualifying (six teams, including Albania, with two such games).
Jordan Pickford has played all seven of England’s matches in this qualification period but has only had to make three saves.
He is one of just two goalkeepers on record (since 2006) to have a 100% save percentage in a European World Cup qualification campaign, alongside Austria’s Helge Payer in the 2006 cycle (nine saves, 12 matches), when playing seven games or more.
Albania have only scored more than once in one of their games – a 3-0 home win over Andorra – with Rey Manaj their top scorer on three goals.
As a whole, they have only netted seven goals from their 71 shots (worth 7.0 expected goals). However, in their last meeting with England, Albania managed just three shots, something they will have to improve if they want to spring a surprise.
The Three Lions have won their last six away matches in all competitions, their best run since between May 1970 and December 1971 (6). They last enjoyed a longer away winning run between December 1965 and October 1967 (9 in a row).
While England’s defence has been receiving plaudits, they will certainly offer a threat at the other end with their star-studded attack, even if Albania have generally been fairly solid at the back on their own patch in recent times.
In fact, Albania have not conceded a goal in a home qualifier for a major tournament (Euros/World Cup) for eight matches, since a 1-0 defeat to Poland in October 2021. They have faced 70 shots (17 on target) and an xG of 4.61 without conceding in these eight games.
England won’t be scared, however, having won their last two away matches 5-0, beating Serbia in September and Latvia in October.
England last hit 5+ goals in three successive away games between May 1937 and May 1938, while they last won three matches on the road by a margin of 5+ goals in June 1908, doing so three times in the space of five days (6-1 and 11-1 vs Austria, 7-0 vs Hungary).
Harry Kane will be keen to get back on the scoresheet, having failed to hit the back of the net against Serbia after only managing a single shot before his 65th-minute substitution.
Kane, who has scored six times in this qualification campaign, has been directly involved in seven goals in three appearances against Albania (5 goals, 2 assists), scoring or assisting on average every 35 minutes.
It’s his joint-most goals against one nation (also 5 vs San Marino), while he’s only been involved in more goals against Bulgaria (4 goals, 4 assists).
Should he struggle again, though, England have shown they have strength in depth; all three of Eberechi Eze’s England goals have come as a substitute. He’s the only Three Lions player to score as many as three goals with all of them off the bench.
And Phil Foden, who was Kane’s replacement on Thursday, set Eze up for his goal. The 25-year-old has impressed for Manchester City in recent weeks and managed seven goal involvements this season (4 goals, 3 assists). He will be keen to make sure that domestic form carries into the national team.
Albania vs England Head-to-Head
England won the most recent meeting between these sides 2-0 in March.
Albania have lost all seven of their matches against England, every single one of which have been in World Cup qualifying. They have conceded at least twice in each defeat and scored just once, an Altin Rraklli goal in a 3-1 March 2001 loss.
England have only played more games against Luxembourg (9), Andorra (8) and San Marino (8) while maintaining a 100% win ratio than they have against Albania (7).
Albania vs England Prediction
England won their first seven matches in World Cup qualifying, with Tuchel’s side expected to finish the group with a 100% record.
The Three Lions triumphed in 68.1% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, while claiming a draw in a further 17.5%.
Albania’s hopes of claiming a win, meanwhile, sit at just 14.4%.
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Albania vs England Prediction: Can Thomas Tuchel Wrap Up Perfect Qualifying Campaign? Opta Analyst.
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