I wouldn’t say Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai is the top starting pitcher on the free agent market this year, necessarily, and I wouldn’t say it’s a lock that the Chicago Cubs pursue him in any case. But I would say that, on paper, the 27-year-old appears to have big-league-caliber stuff, has dominated in Japan to a similar degree that we’ve seen from other starters who’ve come over and had success, and could give the Cubs a different look at the front of their rotation. The Cubs are not unique in being an obvious fit for Imai, but that fit is pretty clear.
So I was glad to hear Bruce Levine and Lance Brozdowski seriously discussing the possibility of the Cubs targeting Tatsuya Imai this offseason, once he’s posted on November 19:
That’s quite a bit of financial optimism from Bruce Levine, eh? Asked about whether he sees the Cubs willing to spend even if Tatsuya Imai became something of a top-dollar free agent, Levine was unequivocal: “I think so. Yeah, I definitely think so. I don’t they’d back away, and I don’t think the Cubs would be afraid to make a huge investment in Imai.” He calls the idea that the Cubs won’t spend money a misconception.
The Cubs, and Spending Big on Free Agents Like Tatsuya Imai
I would say the concern there is that the price tag is gonna keep climbing on players like Imai, to a level well beyond anything the Cubs typically do, but Levine’s comment seems to contemplate that, with the mention of a “huge investment.” He pushes back against the idea that the Cubs flatly will not spend at this level, and instead indicates it’s just a matter of whether they believe in the player.
In some ways, that’s always true for every organization, right? But the Cubs should at least have the theoretical ability to commit $150 million+ to a player like Tatsuya Imai, in a way that the Pirates or Reds or Brewers really would not. Would I call it likely? Well, as I’ve said all offseason, you have to go back 8 years to the last time the Cubs signed a pitcher to a nine-figure deal. There just isn’t a track record there, so your default expectation has to be that the Cubs won’t go quite to this level, instead preferring to try to find the next Matthew Boyd. But I did appreciate Levine’s pushback.
A little more on the pitcher, if you’re unfamiliar, from our previous discussions:
Tatsuya Imai, 27, has been about 25 to 30% better than league average in the NPB by ERA- over the last four years, with peripherals that have gotten better and better over the years. This past season, he paired a 27.8% K rate with a 7.0% BB rate, and posted a 1.92 ERA over 163.2 innings, and it’s not hard to see why now might be the time to capitalize on a move to Major League Baseball.
Part of what will make Imai so intriguing to MLB teams, in addition to his age, is that he’s one of the hardest-throwing starters in Japan. He sits 95mph+, and apparently reaches 99mph. Couple that with a slider, changeup, splitter mix, and the pieces are there for a guy to succeed in the transition to MLB.
For that reason, the expectation is that Imai’s contract will likely be in the nine figures – Jeff Passan heard guesses in the $140 to $150 million range, and that’s before the $20+ million posting fee – and that’s where the questions will come in about whether the Cubs will be sufficiently aggressive to sign him. The Cubs aren’t perpetually out on nine-figure pitchers, but the last one they signed was Yu Darvish some seven years ago.
Maybe Tatsuya Imai’s age will spur the Cubs on a bit more than usual, together with the ability to keep building out the Japan pipeline. But you have to figure that Imai will be highly sought-after, and you’re not only going to have to recruit him well to your city, you’ll also probably have to win a bidding war.
Of course, if you believe in the pitcher, then I would argue there is no team in baseball that benefits more from adding an impact, top-of-the-rotation arm. Yes, other clubs – most clubs? – could benefit as much as the Cubs. But more? No. The Cubs need a guy like Tatsuya Imai as much as any other team, and we saw it late in the year.
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