Don’t think for a second the FCS playoffs come together in orderly fashion. Here are a half-dozen scenarios to keep a close eye on in the next two weekends.
We thought you knew what we knew that you knew …
Or something like that.
If the FCS playoffs began today, the 24-team bracket would be fairly straight forward.
But you know – or at least, we know – there’s that factor out there seemingly every year with the final weeks of the regular season.
Chaos.
Pity the playoff selection committee if everything gets turned upside down in the final two full weeks of the regular season – rivalry matchups will do that – before the pairings are announced on Nov. 23.
Following are some playoff scenarios that could change the qualifying teams significantly. Just losing one at-large bid to the Ivy League’s participation in the FCS playoffs for the first time shrinks the bubble on contenders.
Missouri Valley Football Conference
The chaos is not having seven playoff candidates or perhaps matching the single-season record of six qualifiers, it surrounds South Dakota State.
The 2022 and 2023 national championship program has gone from a 7-0 start and playing in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown against North Dakota State to losing three straight games and dropping to its lowest national ranking in over 10 years.
Imagine if the Jackrabbits (7-3) also lose their final regular-season games against opponents that are now ranked above them in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll, No. 14 Illinois State and No. 13 North Dakota. If so, five straight losses would surely keep the national power out of the playoffs..
Big Sky Conference
Montana and Montana State appear safe for playoff bids and Northern Arizona surely has the remaining schedule to get to 8-4. But what if UC Davis (7-2), which basically has been a given for a playoff spot all season (with national rankings between 6 and 11), collapses in the final two weeks of the regular season, and Sacramento State (6-4) wins out? Are there enough bids to go around the nation for the Big Sky to match its high of five playoff qualifiers?
UC Davis has an FBS loss to Washington, but its FCS loss (Idaho State) isn’t necessarily a good one. The Aggies travel to Montana State this week before hosting Sacramento State in their rivalry matchup. Sac State hosts Idaho this week and hopes for a play-to-get-in scenario on Nov. 22.
OVC-Big South and Patriot League
These are similar scenarios, so we’re grouping them together.
At 10-0 each, fourth-ranked Lehigh from the Patriot League and fifth-ranked Tennessee Tech from the OVC-Big South Football Association have done enough to qualify for the playoffs. But what if it’s not as an automatic qualifier, and the selection committee has to go two-deep with bids?
Tennessee Tech’s resume can only get a boost from its FBS game at Kentucky. But UT Martin, which started 0-4 and is now 5-5, would force its way into the OVC-Big South auto-bid with wins over Charleston Southern (likely) and at Tennessee Tech (as an underdog).
Lehigh and Lafayette (7-3) have so cleared the field in the Patriot League that it doesn’t matter if either or both lose league games this week. The winner of their Nov. 22 finale will claim the auto-bid.
CAA Football
In the largest FCS conference, there’s a playoff going on for a playoff spot. No, it surely doesn’t involve Rhode Island (8-2), Monmouth (8-2) or Villanova (7-2), which have a highly favorable game or two remaining to cement their bids.
Three teams are 6-4 each with an FBS loss and could force a fourth playoff bid in the CAA. Maine (Rhode Island, at New Hampshire), New Hampshire (at Bryant, Maine) and William & Mary (at Hampton, Richmond) are the hopefuls. UNH has the strongest resume to date, including wins at North Carolina Central and Monmouth as well as at home against William & Mary.
Ivy League
Seventh-ranked Harvard (8-0) is going to the playoffs either at 10-0 or 9-1, and it might even be fine for an at-large bid even if it loses to Penn and Yale in the next two weeks. The Crimson’s decisive win over Dartmouth (6-2) basically decides any head-to-head tiebreaker the selection committee would need if both teams finished 8-2.
What’s unique is Dartmouth has the stronger resume than Yale, including a head-to-head win over the Bulldogs plus victories over New Hampshire and Central Connecticut State. But Yale (6-2), whose best win is over Penn, has more of an inside track to the playoffs than Dartmouth as a win at Princeton would set up a home game against rival Harvard for the Ivy’s new auto-bid.
It’s a precarious scenario for Dartmouth because three Ivy bids isn’t happening. Even two would change the field in a drastic way from the past.
The Old (Southland/UAC) Switcheroo?
If a seven-win team gains an at-large playoff bid, it probably starts in the MVFC. But if it extends elsewhere, Abilene Christian is a prime candidate.
The Wildcats (6-4) have the inside track to the United Athletic Conference auto-bid after its fourth Top 25 win handed Tarleton State (9-1) its only loss. Still, that type of resume may allow for a slip-up at Eastern Kentucky or Central Arkansas and a 7-5 finish.
The UAC went from likely repeating last year’s three playoff bids to dropping to a one-bid outlook prior to ACU’s win over Tarleton to now being back to a mix of three from those two teams and either Austin Peay (6-4, including an FBS win) or surging Southern Utah (5-5), which handled Austin Peay head-to-head should they both finish 7-5.
The Southland Conference is trying to avoid the opposite scenario. It only had one bid last year, but zoomed to three strong contenders in recent weeks, and now needs to avoid upsets from seeing the number go back down.
Stephen F. Austin (8-2 with one sub-FCS win) would clinch the auto-bid with a win over Lamar this week, while a win over Northwestern State surely awaits. It would probably benefit the Southland to have Lamar beat SFA prior to wrapping up against McNeese. Southeastern Louisiana is 7-3 with two FBS losses but also lacks signature wins, so closing at UIW and against rival Nicholls makes it dicey for the Lions.
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No Smooth Sailing: Scenarios That Could Change the FCS Playoffs Opta Analyst.
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