The No. 10 Texas Longhorns have faced a challenging season but have managed to grind out victories in conference play, keeping their College Football Playoff (CFP) aspirations alive. Their next test comes in Athens, where they will take on Kirby Smart and the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs. This matchup represents one of the toughest challenges for Arch Manning and the Longhorns, particularly against Georgia’s elite offense.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Georgia holds a 59.8% chance of victory over Texas, which stands at 40.2%.
Georgia enters this game following a convincing 41-21 win against Mississippi State in Week 11. Quarterback Gunner Stockton excelled, throwing for 264 yards on 18 of 19 attempts with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also contributed on the ground with six carries for 31 yards. Running back Nate Frazier had an impressive performance as well, rushing for 181 yards on just 12 carries and scoring one touchdown, while Noah Thomas recorded three receptions for 78 yards and another touchdown.
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Texas last played in Week 10, narrowly defeating Vanderbilt with a score of 34-31. Arch Manning led the Longhorns with an impressive performance, passing for 328 yards on 25 of 35 attempts with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Quintrevion Wisner added to the offense with 75 rushing yards on 18 carries and one touchdown, along with two receptions for an additional 28 yards. Ryan Wingo was also a key contributor with two receptions totaling 89 yards and one touchdown.
As they prepare for Week 12, the Longhorns will face an elite Georgia defense that ranks among the best in college football—25th overall in total defense, third in the SEC, and seventh in touchdowns allowed. The Bulldogs are particularly strong against the run, allowing only an average of 94.1 rushing yards per game—a significant challenge for Texas’ ground game that averages about 158 rushing yards per contest.
However, Texas has opportunities to exploit certain vulnerabilities within Georgia’s defense, particularly concerning their pass coverage and rush pressure. The Bulldogs’ secondary has shown weaknesses when facing effective passing attacks, often leading them to ease pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
This matchup is pivotal not only within the SEC but also for both teams’ playoff ambitions; it promises to be a thrilling contest that could come down to a dramatic fourth quarter in Athens. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET at Sanford Stadium and will be broadcast live on ABC.
ESPN’s FPI projects the winner of Texas vs. Georgia showdown Saturday Down South.
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