Winless in their previous 32 meetings, can Scotland finally break their All Blacks curse in Edinburgh this weekend? Find out in our Scotland vs New Zealand prediction and preview.
When New Zealand won the first-ever clash between these two sides back in November 1905, Scotland probably didn’t think they’d be staring down the Haka almost exactly 120 years later still looking for a first win over the All Blacks.
Murrayfield in particular has been a happy hunting ground for New Zealand. They’ve won 17 times and drawn twice at Scotland’s national stadium – the only venue they’ve played at more than 10 times without ever tasting defeat.
Despite that daunting history, Scotland have rarely gone into a match against New Zealand with such positivity, especially in the professional era. Since the game moved away from its amateur status, the nations have met 15 times, with New Zealand winning the first 12 by an average margin of 30 points.
However, the last three encounters have been far closer, with Scotland finishing within eight points on each occasion and even leading or level at half-time in the last two – a feat no Scotland side had managed since the great Grand Slam-winning team of 1990.
Can Gregor Townsend’s men finally go one step further and break Scotland’s All Black curse?
They are certainly trending the right way, particularly against southern hemisphere opposition. They’ve won six of their last 12 home Tests against Rugby Championship sides – as many as in their previous 41 such fixtures combined.
Perhaps, too, New Zealand’s aura has faded in recent years. The once-dominant force that held the world’s No. 1 ranking for a decade between 2009 and 2019 has found itself more vulnerable in recent years. Since 2020, the All Blacks have occupied top spot for just six weeks and have lost five of their last 16 away matches against European nations. That’s not a bad record, but certainly a downturn considering their previous five such defeats came across 64 matches.
Where the Game Could Be Won
New Zealand’s attack isn’t quite as fluid as it once was, but it is still capable of cutting teams to shreds when the game opens up, as Ireland found in the final 20 minutes in Chicago last week.
In this year’s Rugby Championship, the All Blacks recorded the best tackle evasion rate of any side, beating a quarter of the attempted tackles they faced (25.2%).
However, in defence, Scotland have been one of the sturdiest teams in the Six Nations for a number of years now and once again boasted the best tackle success rate of any team in the Championship this year (89%).
Scotland’s attack can hurt teams too and their backline is littered with potential game-changers in the form of Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu and Darcy Graham, while Rory Hutchinson gets the nod at outside centre following some fine form with Northampton Saints this season.
It is no surprise that they enjoy getting the ball wide. During this year’s Six Nations, only England played with 10 metres of width more often, and only Wales moved the ball more than 20 metres wide more frequently.
However, they must be patient in their attempts to get the ball to the danger men out wide. Since the beginning of the 2020 Autumn Nations Cup, Scotland have played 24 games against the current top five sides in the world – South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, England and France – winning six of those games.
In those six wins they played with 10+ metres width on 41% of their attacking phases, whereas their 18 defeats saw them do so on almost 60% of attacks (59%). In fact, in that run of games, four of their five lowest such totals came in victories, showing that less can be more when it comes to moving the ball wide against rugby’s heavyweights.
Players to Watch
Over the last 12 months, Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe have slogged it out in the battle to become Scotland’s all-time top try scorer in men’s Test rugby.
With the latter omitted this weekend, Graham has the chance to move to the top of rankings on his own, after the pair scored a combined five tries against the USA last weekend to take their tally to 34 each.
Graham has previous against the All Blacks, having scored on his only appearance against them back in 2022, a match that marked the start of a remarkable try-scoring run for him at Murrayfield.
Since, and including, that match, Graham has scored 16 tries in just 11 appearances at the Edinburgh venue – comfortably more than any other player at a single venue in that same period.
It’s an incredible run of form, but his try -coring isn’t just isolated to his last 11 home internationals. Since the beginning of 2020, he’s scored 29 tries in 2,476 minutes of action – an average of one every 85 minutes.
Among Tier 1 nations this decade (minimum 800 minutes), only two players boast a better strike rate. One of those players is New Zealand’s Will Jordan, who has averaged a try every 82 minutes. Louis Bielle-Biarrey the only man to better that for a Tier 1 nation.
Overall, Jordan has scored 43 tries in the 2020s, 10 more than any other T1 player and only behind Georgia’s Akaki Tabutsadze overall (50).
However, the Crusaders ful- back hasn’t quite had the same try-scoring fortunes in recent months, crossing the line just once for New Zealand in his last seven appearances and failing to score in his last four. It’s his lowest total across a seven-game run for the All Blacks and his joint-longest scoreless streak – he’s never gone five matches without dotting down though.
Another man who is very capable of helping the All Blacks get across the whitewash is Cam Roigard, with the scrum-half logging 11 tries and seven assists in just 15 matches, averaging a try involvement every 42 minutes so far in his Test career.
The Hurricanes No. 9 should keep the Scottish defence honest around the fringes which might just open up gaps out wide for Jordan to end his scoreless streak.
Scotland vs New Zealand Prediction
According to the Opta supercomputer, despite much Scottish positivity, it is still the All Blacks who are heavy favourites, with a 73.2% chance of winning. Based on its simulations, it believes New Zealand will win by 12 points, with a 32-18 scoreline being most likely.
It is fair to assume, though, that Scotland having a one-in-four likelihood (26.4%) of beating New Zealand is a vast improvement from previous years and that Scotland fans might not mind those odds too much.
No doubt Gregor Townsend’s men will quietly enjoy being underdogs too, believing more than ever that they can finally break the All Black curse.
Scotland vs New Zealand Lineups
Scotland XV: 15. Blair Kinghorn, 14. Darcy Graham, 13. Rory Hutchinson, 12. Sione Tuipulotu, 11. Kyle Steyn, 10. Finn Russell, 9. Ben White, 1. Pierre Schoeman, 2. Ewan Ashman, 3. D’Arcy Rae, 4. Scott Cummings, 5. Grant Gilchrist, 6. Gregor Brown, 7. Matt Fagerson, 8. Jack Dempsey
Replacements: 16. George Turner, 17. Rory Sutherland, 18. Elliot Millar-Mills, 19. Marshall Sykes, 20. Rory Darge, 21. Josh Bayliss, 22. Jamie Dobie, 23. Tom Jordan
New Zealand XV: 15. Will Jordan, 14. Leroy Carter, 13. Leicester Fainga’anuku, 12. Quinn Tupaea, 11. Caleb Clarke, 10. Beauden Barrett, 9. Cam Roigard, 1. Ethan de Groot, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Fletcher Newell, 4. Josh Lord, 5. Fabian Holland, 6. Wallace Sititi, 7. Ardie Savea, 8. Peter Lakai
Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Sam Darry, 20. Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21. Cortez Ratima, 22. Billy Proctor, 23. Damian McKenzie
Scotland vs New Zealand Prediction: Can Townsend’s Side Finally End the All Black Hoodoo at Murrayfield? Opta Analyst.
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