With a new coach and a young emerging quarterback, New England is the surprising leader of the AFC East. It leads to the old question: Are they an NFL contender or pretender? We search for answers.
The New England Patriots have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season.
With head coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye leading the way, they’re an AFC East-leading 6-2 with the NFL’s third-highest probability of making the playoffs at 88.5% (according to the Opta supercomputer).
This is not an accident.
New England has certainly looked the part this year with the eighth-best scoring offense and the fourth-best scoring defense. The Patriots’ plus-67 point differential is also third behind only the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs.
Maye, meanwhile, ranks fourth in passing yards and second in completion percentage. It’s a testament not only to the development of New England’s 2024 third-overall pick, but also that of Vrabel and his coaching staff.
Josh McDaniels’ return as offensive coordinator revitalized a unit that lacks star power, and the defense under Terrel Williams has been impressive as well.
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1 day ago Robbie Dunne, Donald KolakowskiWhile the Patriots looked touch-and-go after a 2-2 start, a marquee road win over the divisional rival Buffalo Bills pushed New England from playoff darling to potential Super Bowl contender. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 12.49% chance to win the AFC, which ranks third behind only the aforementioned Bills and Chiefs.
But there are a few breaks that have gone the Patriots’ way this season. While we can’t discount Maye’s performance in Year 2, the team has also benefited from an insanely easy schedule and a relatively healthy roster. (They’ve put 11 players on injured reserve, which is tied for the eighth fewest in the league.)
So, we’ll ask the question: Are the Patriots for real? Let’s explore.
The Rise of Drake Maye
It’s almost impossible to ignore the stats.
Apart from his raw production numbers, Maye also ranks in the top five in open target rate, well-thrown rate, catchable-ball rate and pickable pass rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.
No other quarterback ranks that highly in all four of those metrics.
Maye’s greatness this season boils down to two sensational attributes: He’s been incredible under pressure and elite when throwing the ball downfield.
Despite taking sacks at a ridiculously high rate (his 24 sacks are second-most behind Cam Ward and his sacks per pressure rate rank first in the NFL), Maye is at his best when under pressure. His 71.6% completion rate under pressure tops the league, while his well-thrown percentage and catchable-ball rate are all in the top five.
Maye’s completion rate on targets of at least 10 air yards downfield is also wild at 70.0% – first in the league among quarterbacks with at least 40 such passing attempts.
The next closest are Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold, both of whom are below a 66% completion rate. Maye’s well-thrown and catchable-ball rates are also both in the top three.
Simply put, Maye is playing lights-out under normal circumstances – and he takes his game to another level when situations call for greatness.
And he’s doing it all without any star skill pass catchers. New England’s leading receivers are Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, who have 470 and 431 receiving yards, respectively.
So it’s also no accident that Maye has soared to third on MGM’s NFL MVP betting board (+550) behind only mainstays Patrick Mahomes (+140) and Josh Allen (+350). But he isn’t doing it by himself. Coaching has helped immensely, too.
The Coaching Masterclass
Leave it to McDaniels to build up another young Patriots quarterback. He helped do it with Tom Brady on two separate stints in New England and then helped Mac Jones become a Pro Bowl selection (for whatever that’s worth) as a rookie.
Now, he’s doing it again with Maye.
There were signs of Maye’s greatness in 2024, but McDaniels’ coaching has played a role in Maye’s rapid development. Maye’s completion rate has bumped up by almost 6% this season and his pickable pass rate has dropped by almost 3%. That’s a sensational difference in less than a year.
Vrabel’s construction of this team cannot be discounted, either. The Patriots’ offensive success rate increased by 6% in 2025 compared to 2024 (from 24th to seventh) and the offensive line looks particularly improved.
New England went from allowing the second-highest pressure rate in 2024 to the sixth fewest in 2025. The additions of free agents Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradberry, as well as first-round rookie tackle Will Campbell, certainly helped, but a revamped offensive line doesn’t always equate to immediate success.
With Vrabel in New England, though, it has.
The defense looks solid, although still a work in progress. New England’s defensive success rate is squarely in the middle of the league, but it does have a top-three run defense led by stalwart interior defensive linemen Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga. All three have run disruption rates above 20%, and Tonga’s 43.1% rate ranks No. 1 among defensive linemen with at least 50 run-blocking snaps.
The secondary and pass rush are where the Patriots need work. New England’s pass success rate allowed is the seventh worst in the league and the team’s pressure rate is the 12th lowest.
Fortunately, the Patriots haven’t needed to be world-beaters defensively thanks to the one thing the team couldn’t control this year: the schedule.
The Schedule
OK, it’s caveat time.
Yes, the Patriots have proven to be one of the best teams in the NFL. They’ve given up more than 20 points in a game once and scored more than 20 points in all six of their wins.
But they’ve also barely been tested, benefitting from the easiest strength of schedule in the league. Apart from their win over the Bills in Week 5, the Patriots haven’t faced a team with a winning record this season.
The Patriots have the easiest strength of schedule overall based on opponents’ current records (.354) and they’re set to face the easiest remaining schedule the rest of the way (.362).
Is that low? It’s currently the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in a season since the 1970 merger, behind only the 1975 Minnesota Vikings, who went 12-2 but lost in the divisional round to Roger Staubach’s Dallas Cowboys.
The toughest teams the Patriots will face (on paper, at least) are the injury-riddled 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, the Bills again in Week 15 and the likely healthier Baltimore Ravens in Week 16.
This isn’t the Patriots’ fault. They just have to go out and face the teams they’re scheduled to play. However, it is a factor in determining how New England has gone from one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past two seasons to one of the best in such a short amount of time.
The Pats are back on top of the AFC East, but they’ve still got a lot of prove before we can say they’re back to being the title contenders they were during the Brady-Belichick era.
Research support provided by Stats Perform’s Jeff Mangurten. Follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
2010s Again: Are the Patriots Back Among the NFL’s Elite? Opta Analyst.
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