With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
The Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts have emerged and now have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to win the NFC heading into Week 7, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 63.4% Spread: Steelers -5.5 (via DraftKings as of Wednesday) All-Time Meetings (Regular Season): Steelers 69-40 Last Meeting: Bengals 19, Steelers 17 (Jan. 4, 2025)Quick Hit: Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco are the first pair of 40+ year old starting quarterbacks to face off in a game since Tom Brady (43-167) and Drew Brees (42-2) in the 2020 AFC divisional round. Flacco is the only player in NFL history with 5,000+ career passing yards versus the Steelers.
Sunday’s Games
Los Angeles Rams (4-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) in London
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 57.9% Spread: Rams -3.0 All-Time Meetings: Rams 5-1 Last Meeting: Rams 37, Jaguars 7 (Dec. 5, 2021)Quick Hit: Matthew Stafford is 4-0 in his career against the Jaguars. The only quarterbacks to begin their careers with longer win streaks against the Jags are Deshaun Watson (seven) and Tom Brady (five).
New Orleans Saints (1-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 67.9% Spread: Bears -5.5 All-Time Meetings: Saints 18-13 Last Meeting: Saints 24, Bears 17 (Nov. 5, 2023)Quick Hit: The Saints have won seven straight games against the Bears dating back to 2011. It is tied for New Orleans’ longest win streak versus any single opponent (Rams and Buccaneers).
Miami Dolphins (1-5) at Cleveland Browns (1-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Browns 60.9% Spread: Browns -2.5 All-Time Meetings: Dolphins 11-9 Last Meeting: Browns 20, Dolphins 3 (Dec. 29, 2024)Quick Hit: Cleveland holds a 7-6 edge over Miami at home and has only outscored the Dolphins by one point in those meetings. The Browns have recorded four or more sacks in four straight home games in the series (since Week 3, 2011), their second-longest streak against a single opponent since sacks were first tracked for teams in 1964 (five versus Chiefs, 1975-89).
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 84.0% Spread: Chiefs -11.5 All-Time Meetings: Chiefs 73-54-2 Last Meeting: Chiefs 19, Raiders 17 (Nov. 29, 2024)Quick Hit: The Raiders defense has allowed fewer than 400 total net yards in seven consecutive matchups versus the Chiefs offense. That is tied for the longest streak by any team vs. Kansas City since Andy Reid became the Chiefs’ head coach in 2013 (Chargers).
Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 55.1% Spread: Eagles -1.5 All-Time Meetings: Vikings 15-12 Last Meeting: Eagles 34, Vikings 28 (Sept. 14, 2023)Quick Hit: The home team has won 12 of the last 15 matchups between the Eagles (8-2) and Vikings (4-1). The last contest played in Minnesota came in 2019 when the Vikings won 38-20.
Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Jets (0-6)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Panthers 52.1% Spread: Panthers -1.5 All-Time Meetings: Panthers 5-3 Last Meeting: Panthers 19, Jets 14 (Sept. 12, 2021)Quick Hit: The Jets are 6-16 against NFC South opponents since the divisional realignment in 2002. That is the worst record by any NFL team versus the division over that span. New York is seeking its first win against an NFC South team since Week 9 of 2013 (vs. Saints).
New England Patriots (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 68.3% Spread: Patriots -7.0 All-Time Meetings: Patriots 24-17-1 Last Meeting: Titans 20, Patriots 17, OT (Nov. 3, 2024)Quick Hit: Mike Vrabel had 56 career wins for the Titans in his time as head coach (including the postseason). The only coaches in Titans/Oilers franchise history with more wins are Jeff Fisher (147) and Bum Phillips (59). Vrabel’s four wins are tied for the second most (Mike Holovak) by a Patriots coach through the first six games of their career with the team (Pete Carroll, five).
New York Giants (2-4) at Denver Broncos (4-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 73.0% Spread: Broncos -7.0 All-Time Meetings: Broncos 7-6 Last Meeting: Broncos 27, Giants 13 (Sept. 12, 2021)Quick Hit: The Broncos held the Jets to minus-10 net passing yards in their Week 6 game in London. It’s the fewest net passing yards Denver has ever allowed in a game in franchise history (including the postseason). On the season, the Broncos rank third (-0.77) in defensive EVE (efficiency vs. expected) behind the Packers (-1.37) and Texans (-0.95).
Indianapolis Colts (5-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chargers 55.1% Spread: Chargers -1.5 All-Time Meetings: Chargers 18-10 Last Meeting: Chargers 20, Colts 3 (Dec. 26, 2022)Quick Hit: The Colts have not defeated the Chargers on the road since Week 12, 2008, when Peyton Manning led them to a 23-20 win over Philip Rivers’ team. Indianapolis is one of four teams Jim Harbaugh has never defeated as an NFL head coach (Chargers, Ravens, Vikings).
Green Bay Packers (3-1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 65.9% Spread: Packers -6.5 All-Time Meetings: Packers 46-24-4 Last Meeting: Packers 34, Cardinals 13 (Oct. 13, 2024)Quick Hit: The Packers have spent 74.0% of game time with a lead this season, the most of any NFL team. Since the beginning of last season, Green Bay has led 60.1% of the time, which also leads the league.
Washington Commanders (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 50.8% Spread: Commanders -2.5 All-Time Meetings: Cowboys 79-47-2 Last Meeting: Commanders 23, Cowboys 19 (Jan. 5, 2025)Quick Hit: Dak Prescott has thrown for four touchdowns over each of his past two games against Washington, something he has done against one other opponent (two straight vs. the Giants, 2018-19). Prescott is one passing TD away from 28 against Washington, which would be third outright all time against the franchise (Charlie Conerly – 38, Eli Manning – 33).
Sunday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 49ers 58.2% Spread: 49ers -2.5 All-Time Meetings: 49ers 47-32-1 Last Meeting: Falcons 28, 49ers 14 (Oct. 16, 2022)Quick Hit: The 49ers have a 29-12 record against the Falcons at home. That is San Francisco’s second-most wins and fifth-highest win percentage versus any team at home (min. five games played).
Monday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) at Detroit Lions (4-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 69.3% Spread: Lions -5.5 All-Time Meetings: Lions 32-29 Last Meeting: Buccaneers 20, Lions 16 (Sept. 15, 2024)Quick Hit: The Buccaneers have won their last three road games against Detroit, including their win in Week 2 last season. They have held the Lions without a passing touchdown in all three of these games, the only team with an active multi-game streak of this kind against the Lions in Detroit.
Houston Texans (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 60.8% Spread: Seahawks -3.0 All-Time Meetings: Seahawks 4-1 Last Meeting: Seahawks 33, Texans 13 (Dec. 12, 2021)Quick Hit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 696 receiving yards, the most by any Seattle player through his first six games of a season. That total currently leads the NFL, and he could join Steve Largent (1979, 1985) as the only Seahawks to lead the league in this category.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
NFL Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win in Week 7? Opta Analyst.
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