Sense a pattern? An American declaration that the war was finally over was the key ingredient to reaching an elusive agreement, and it removed the final obstacle that Netanyahu had continued to put in the way of a deal for many months now. Even though the overall framework for this agreement had been in place arguably since the fall of 2023, and certainly since the spring of 2024 under Joe Biden, Netanyahu’s repeated refusal to end the war, and America’s refusal to get him to accept it under both administrations, led to failed negotiations over and over again. Now, this seems to have finally changed.
Second, Israel’s growing isolation around the globe, which peaked in recent weeks at the UN General Assembly, when the world walked out on Netanyahu’s speech and many major American allies recognized a Palestinian state, sent a clear message that the costs of Israel’s genocide were continuing to grow. In recent weeks, Netanyahu even recognized this in what became known as his “Sparta speech,” where he told Israelis they will have to reorganize their economy to deal with the continuing challenge of isolation. In additional to reputational and economic costs, an exhausted Israeli reserve corps and a growing but underreported suicide crisis among troops added to the ledger.
But is it really over? Yes and no. For the people of Gaza, the kind of large-scale killing perpetrated by the Israeli military on a daily basis, routinely near 100 Palestinians a day, looks like it will abate. If Israel were to return to genocide now, after making this deal, getting its captives back and with so much global diplomatic investment involved in making that happen, it would immediately be identified as a bad faith actor hell bent on killing, and the international opprobrium would quickly increase several fold. Trump himself has invested significant Presidential prestige in declaring an end to the war, and Israel returning to large-scale slaughter would then greatly embarrass its most important and last remaining ally and its vain president.
From massive amounts of unexploded ordinance, physical hazards created by the Israeli military’s mass destruction, the effects malnutrition and starvation, disease and unsanitary conditions all combined with a health sector that has been destroyed by the Israeli war machine means that Palestinians will continue to struggle to survive in Gaza and will die much younger on average than most any other people for quite some time to come.
While Trump traveled to the region for his glorious peacemaking achievement, it was noteworthy that he couldn’t get everybody around one table. Instead, he had to go to Israel separately, then join the rest of the world in Egypt. The international community, except for Israel, the United States, and perhaps Micronesia are more united than ever behind the principle of Palestinian self-determination. Israel, however, seems more opposed to that than ever, setting itself on a course for continued confrontation with, and isolation from, the rest of the globe, even if it has hit pause on the genocide.
If the international community is indeed interested in peace and stability, in the Middle East and beyond, it must immediately focus on reinstituting norms against war crimes that have been blown to smithereens across Gaza for the past two years. Failing to do so not only bodes poorly for the region, but for an entire world that will be more dangerous and more deadly as war criminals walk freely.
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