Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
What’s our biggest concern after six games?
— Stu Mitchell, Santa Monica, Calif.
Hey Stu, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week with a good question.
The Broncos have won three straight and are tied with the Chargers atop the AFC West at 4-2, but obviously, they’re not without weaknesses.
We’re still just a tick early in the season to be really confident that we’re past small-sample issues. Clearly, in recent weeks, Denver’s had trouble with penalties and special teams. At this moment, though, if you’re looking for the Broncos’ biggest issue, it’s that almost nothing in the numbers or the eye test suggests this offense is more than middle of the road.
A lot of that comes down to consistency. There have been stretches where quarterback Bo Nix and company get humming, and it looks really good. But there are also long droughts — an issue that plagued Denver last year and hasn’t yet been solved.
So far this season, the Broncos have had 64 possessions (excluding end-of-half or end-of-game kneeldowns) and have failed to get a first down on 22 of them, a 34.4% rate. They’ve gone three-and-out 19 times, and the other three were possessions that ended without a first down because of an interception, a lost fumble or a safety. The fumble and the safety both came Sunday in London. So, too, did four three-and-outs, all in the second half.
Denver also went three-and-out three straight times to open a Week 3 loss on the road against the Chargers.
These are the types of spells that can cost games.
Moreover, the Broncos appear to be elite offensively in one thing: Avoiding sacks. They’re second in the NFL in sack percentage (2.91%) and first in pressure rate allowed (23.3%), according to Next Gen Stats. They’re good in the run game so far (No. 7 in rushing per game at 130.2 yards and No. 10 in per-carry at 4.65).
Everything else looks average or worse.
They are 20th in both yards per play and scoring. They are 24th in yards per pass attempt, 18th in first downs per game, and tied for 17th in interception rate.
They are 15th in estimated points added per play and 28th in offensive success rate, per Sumer Sports data.
Nix has a couple of metrics that have ticked up in Year 2: EPA/dropback, for example, but so far his quarterback rating, yards per attempt and completion percentages have all dropped.
There aren’t any stick-out-like-a-sore-thumb metrics for the Denver offense. There just aren’t many particularly good numbers, either.
The questions, then, are mostly around what might drive improvement. The Broncos have been pretty healthy outside of TE Evan Engram getting off to a slow start and LG Ben Powers going on injured reserve. It’s possible Nix catches a heater, or head coach Sean Payton and the offensive staff continue to refine their plans week-to-week and find a good, sustainable groove. Perhaps young receivers like Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant continue to make strides, as well as rookie RB RJ Harvey.
Mostly, though, this is the group the Broncos have.
Now the challenge is figuring out how to squeeze production out of it that’s better than middle-of-the-road.
Hi Parker, I’m usually a glass-half-full guy, so I’ll say first that I think this Broncos team is generally well-coached. However, there seems to be so much chaos on offense at times that I can’t make heads or tails of it. Do you think Payton’s endless substitutions point to a lack of “skill” (I think they should be called “talent” and the offensive lineman should be called “skilled”) position players on this team? J.K. Dobbins and Courtland Sutton are really the only two players to show consistency to this point. I’m worried that when the playoffs roll around, this will be their demise. What say you?
— Joe, Aurora
Hey Joe, thanks for writing, and yeah, similar vein of question to Stu.
We’ve been over the substitution thing in the past. The Broncos have had fewer play-clock issues the past couple of weeks, and Payton really believes different groupings, frequent substitutions and lots of different looks are a net positive.
One interesting thing here: A lot was made of Payton and the running backs saying that moving to more by-series rotations paid off against Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago. That was the most even distribution of the year between Dobbins and Harvey.
On the two-game road trip, though, Dobbins played 69 of 134 snaps (51.5%) and Harvey played 32 snaps (23.9%). Dobbins being the lead back is fine — he’s been really good so far — but there was a possession early on in the game Sunday where Dobbins got first down, Harvey second down and then Jaleel McLaughlin third down. Another later where it was split essentially by play.
The backs have been pretty clear that they like getting more consecutive snaps and that it helps get into rhythm.
As for the overall skill talent for the Broncos, that’s an open question. They’re not bad, but it’s also pretty clear they’re not overwhelming, either.
If Engram continues to ascend and Payton keeps finding ways to keep Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. involved, it can be a solid group. None of them has reached true No. 2 status in the passing game behind Sutton, though.
The more items on the checklist, the more difficult it is to envision everything coming together. But those three guys, plus Harvey, all play a role in the ceiling for Denver’s offense.
How active do you think the Broncos will be at the trade deadline? Cleveland guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller, along with Tennessee’s Kevin Zeitler, may be available to help fill the massive hole in Denver’s offensive line left by Ben Powers’ injury. Also, could Sean Payton return to the Saints’ talent tree and pluck either Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed to finally give Bo Nix a legitimate No. 2 receiver?
— Jeff Bear, Loveland
Hey Jeff, thanks for writing in.
Certainly, the Broncos could look to the trade market over the next three weeks for help up front. They’ve got a chance here to sort through their internal options first to see what they can come up with.
Payton was asked Sunday after the game by an international reporter what Denver’s approach to the trade deadline would be, and he was polite about it, but essentially said it’s too early to know.
The Saints’ slow start is another area that’s worth watching. They’ve already asked Alvin Kamara if he wants to be traded, and he’s apparently made it clear to them that he does not want to be. We know how much Payton loves Kamara, so if his stance changes, you’d have to imagine Payton would know.
Even bad teams shouldn’t be trading good young players, but you never know. Certainly, it would spice up the trade deadline considerably if Olave and the New York Jets’ Garrett Wilson both end up being available for contending teams to fight over.
A quick Google search reveals the Broncos are the sixth-most penalized team in the NFL. Not only are they highly penalized, but they also seem to occur at key moments in games. What needs to be done to clean these mistakes up?
— Kevin, Pueblo
Hey Kevin, thanks for writing in. Sunday was a good example. Overall, six penalties for 37 yards is much better than where the Broncos had been the past few weeks.
The problem? Sequences like when Pat Bryant false-started to turn a third-and-1 into third-and-6, and Matt Peart was flagged for holding the next snap to wipe out an explosive play.
That went from being a really good opportunity to push the ball into the red zone to the Broncos being knocked out of field position.
As for eliminating those mistakes, that’s been a tough nut for coaches at all levels to figure out.
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Bottom line: There are all kinds of penalties — Payton likes to say aggressive penalties can be managed, but formational and pre-snap stuff is inexcusable — and all kinds of ways to try to minimize them.
We’ll see if Payton’s team can make strides in that department going forward this fall.
Why couldn’t the Broncos steamroll the lowly Jets?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, part of it is the any-given-week nature of the NFL, but you’re right. It felt like a lopsided matchup, and then at one point the Broncos had 158 yards compared to one for the Jets. And yet it took until the bitter end and all of nine sacks in order to escape with a victory.
The short-and-sweet answer is pretty simple: After a promising start offensively, Denver didn’t do much of anything over the final three quarters of the game. And the Jets put together a major advantage on special teams that kept them in good field position and made life more difficult for the Broncos.
It certainly would have been interesting had Aaron Glenn and company not confusingly run out the clock on the first half, or if they tried a 61-yard field goal with 1:14 left and trailing 13-11 rather than going for it on fourth-and-8.
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