Whether they admit it or not, Hugh Freeze and Billy Napier will be coaching for their jobs on Saturday.
That’s reality for a pair of coaches at premier SEC jobs. Losing in front of the home fans to teams without the same prestige as their respective programs would be, in every way, the nail in the coffin for Freeze and Napier.
It’s simple. If Florida loses on Saturday to Mississippi State, Napier will be out on Sunday, and if Auburn loses on Saturday to No. 16 Mizzou, well, you get it.
That should be understood.
For what it’s worth, the Gators are 9-point favorites and Auburn is a slight 1.5-point underdog (via bet365) after opening as a 1.5-point favorite. There’s at least a decent chance that the outcome for these matchups is that Napier and Freeze both show up for work on Sunday, business as usual. This also isn’t some sort of a “next loss and you’re out” situation because with all due respect to Florida and Auburn, neither one of those teams is running the table.
This is specific to this weekend and the stakes that’ll be felt in their respective home venues.
If there’s anything we’ve been reminded of so far in the first half of the season, it’s that apathetic home stadiums are the worst possible optics for a coach. Mike Gundy, DeShaun Foster, Sam Pittman, Trent Bray, Brent Pry and James Franklin were all fired after embarrassing home losses. Each one of those coaches had that happen with multiple losses already under their respective belts in the first half of the season. On second thought, check that. Gundy only had 1 loss under his belt, but it was a 69-3 loss to Oregon. His second loss was at home to Tulsa on a Friday night, which was basically worth 3 losses.
You get it.
That’s what Freeze and Napier are desperate to avoid. It’s one thing to go on the road and lose in a hostile atmosphere, much like Napier did last week at No. 5 Texas A&M. It’s another to have your own fanbase look restless in the midst of another disappointing loss.
But what about these athletic directors who love them, you ask?
Some might assume that Auburn AD John Cohen and Florida AD Scott Stricklin won’t fire their respective head coaches because of how desperately they want to see their hires work out. Two things can be true at the same time. One is that they have more grace for coaches they hired than they would for coaches they inherited. The other is that they cannot possibly watch Saturday losses play out and avoid the undeniable truth that this isn’t working out.
For Napier, that means not letting Jeff Lebby get his first SEC win against you. Can’t happen. Not in your own building. Shoot, not on Mars.
And yes, we can acknowledge that Mississippi State is a better team than it was last year when Napier led the Gators to a blowout win in Starkville, which was 1 of 5 wins away from The Swamp that he has at Florida. The Bulldogs are no slouch defensively, which we saw when they surrendered just 1 offensive touchdown in the first 58 minutes against Tennessee‘s No. 1 scoring offense in the SEC. At A&M 2 weeks ago, Mississippi State held the high-power Aggies offense to 7 points in the first 41 minutes before the wheels fell off late. That was more than Florida could do at Kyle Field a week later.
To lose to an improved, but still developing Mississippi State squad at home would all but erase that Texas win. How? As great as it was to watch the Gators beat the preseason No. 1 team in every phase, it loses its significance if 2 conference losses follow. It would also mean that the 2 home games the Texas win was sandwiched between are a historic loss to USF and Mississippi State’s first conference win in 2 years.
If Napier falls to 2-5 on Saturday, gone is any chance of him improving on last year. He’d be staring at a steep uphill climb just to get to a bowl game considering that future matchups against top-10 foes Georgia and Ole Miss are both away from The Swamp, where Napier has yet to beat a ranked team in 14 attempts.
You know. In case you haven’t heard.
That’s the issue. This isn’t a punishment for losing a game that Florida shouldn’t lose. We’re way past that. He’s 21-23. He’s 11-16 vs. SEC competition. He’s had tens of millions of dollars put into his surroundings, both with his roster and his support staff. If the takeaway is “Florida is still too impatient,” ask yourself this. Is that coach supposed to get a decade? Like, is Florida supposed to stomach embarrassing losses when the ceiling has been a 7-5 regular season with 1-2 upset wins? That’s not how this works in this era.
Freeze is still trying to get to a Year 4, but he’s running out of time after his 3rd consecutive 0-3 start to SEC play
Sure, you could point to a few (controversial) plays shaping that start. You could also point to his 2-8 record at home vs. Power Conference teams and the fact that Freeze is now 2-11 in games decided by 10 points or less. Officiating issues aside, there continues to be a sense that Freeze’s team won’t make critical plays to win close games.
There also continues to be a sense that Saturday cannot be more of the same. Cohen spoke with AL.com and offered up a rather sheepish vote of confidence for Freeze.
“I don’t know if I’m going to walk outside and my car is going to start or not, I think it is,” Cohen said (via AL.com). “I have an expectation it will. But if my car doesn’t start enough, then I will evaluate that and make decisions about my car. But that’s not my expectation at this point about our football program.”
Uh, OK.
So if the car doesn’t start on Saturday vs. a Mizzou team who is 26-6 since Freeze’s arrival at Auburn, think about those optics. Freeze will have lost to a Mizzou quarterback that Auburn could’ve pursued in the transfer portal, which would be a year removed from losing a double-digit lead late to a Mizzou quarterback who spent part of the game in the hospital.
To be fair, Mizzou winning doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll strictly be the doing of one Beau Pribula, who has been a better transfer addition than Jackson Arnold. It could be the byproduct of another big day from Mizzou star running back Ahmad Hardy, AKA the Power Conference leader in rushing who spent last year racking up 1,351 yards at Louisiana-Monroe. Freeze and Auburn should know that because much like Diego Pavia, he played at Jordan-Hare with his Group of 5 school before he entered the portal and transferred to a non-Auburn SEC school (Auburn held him to 60 yards and a touchdown).
Auburn’s backfield, on the other hand, just watched captain Damari Alston get kicked off the team. That led to an outpouring of support from teammates, who didn’t exactly seem to agree with whatever led to him not being a member of the program anymore. Whatever happened, all it means for Saturday is that Auburn has 1 less ground game option for a coach/play-caller who has a propensity to ignore his backfield in critical moments.
Weird times, these are.
So how does Saturday shake out?
Oddly, Auburn has been an easier team to predict than Florida. As frustrating as another 0-3 start to SEC play has been because of how it unfolded, the Tigers won the 3 games they were favored in and lost the 3 games they were underdogs in. Make of that what you will. That spread could move in a variety of ways by the time Saturday night rolls around, so don’t assume anything just yet.
And when Florida loses as a 3-score favorite against USF, let’s just say assumptions are out the window there, too.
If Freeze and Napier are going to weather their respective storms and return in 2026, they’ll both have won on Saturday, and perhaps convincingly. That’s the best prediction I can offer up. Well, there’s 1 other prediction that I’ll take into Week 8 for Freeze and Napier.
A Saturday that ends with a loss means a Sunday meeting with the boss.
Why with a loss on Saturday, Hugh Freeze and Billy Napier would be fired on Sunday Saturday Down South.
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