Yesterday, Michael dug in on the arrestingly complex web of Cubs options and Qualifying Offer decisions that lay ahead for the Chicago Cubs and Shōta Imanaga. (My gut says the Cubs will decline their larger option, Imanaga will decline his small player option, and then the Cubs will extend a Qualifying Offer that Imanaga may very well accept.)
There are other Cubs players with decisions ahead, though not are as complicated as what Imanaga, his representatives, and the organization must sort through. Cubs options decisions and Qualifying Offer decisions will come within just a few days after the World Series concludes.
Cubs Options Decisions
There are just three options decisions for the Cubs to sort through this year, outside of Imanaga’s.
Justin Turner, $10 million mutual option, $2 million buyout. You hopefully know the drill by now on mutual options: they are meaningless. They are a mechanism by which a team can punt some of the salary on a one-year deal into the next year, by way of a buyout (in Turner’s case, a $2 million buyout – he received $4 million of his $6 million deal this year as salary). In a world where the team wants to exercise the option, the player won’t want to. And in a world – like this one – where the player wants to exercise the option, the team won’t want to. You can always, always, always ignore mutual options, and just think of them instead as deferred money.
Andrew Kittredge, $9 million team option, $1 million buyout. In these situations, you have to subtract the buyout (since the guy is getting that portion no matter what), and consider the net figure as the real decision. In this case: do the Cubs want to keep Kittredge for 2026 on, effectively, a one-year, $8 million deal?
Over 53.0 regular season innings between the Orioles and the Cubs, Kittredge posted a 3.40 ERA (17% better than league average) and a 3.06 FIP (26% better). He had one implosion outing after the trade to the Cubs, but he was otherwise actually quite dominant. Sufficiently dominant that Craig Counsell trusted him as one of his top-three relievers by the end of the year and into the postseason (where, through five appearances, Kittredge allowed three runs).
Kittredge will be 36 next season, though that’s not necessarily all that old for a one-year, veteran reliever. Last year in free agency, the Orioles had to guarantee him $10 million on a one-year deal, and I would argue he looks no less attractive this offseason (his ERA went up, but his peripherals across the board were actually much better this season). Although $8 million is a whole lot for the Cubs when it comes to signing a reliever, I’m not sure that’s a bad price for what Kittredge might get on the market.
Among the few Cubs options decisions – non-Imanaga edition – I think this is probably the toughest one, but historically the Cubs don’t pay guys in this tier on one-year deals. I wonder if the Cubs will shop Kittredge ahead of the option deadline.
Colin Rea, $6 million team option, $750K buyout. At the time he was signed to a guaranteed $5 million deal before this season, the fact that the Cubs tacked on a club option was mostly a side mention. It was not at all clear that Rea would pitch his way into making that option a close decision, and much of the focus was on whether he could simply be a decent swing man for 2025.
Well, Rea went on to pitching out of the Cubs’ rotation for most of the year, serving a critical role as the team dealt with injuries. His 3.95 ERA over 159.1 innings was not much better than league average, but his peripherals supported that performance. And when you’re talking about a swing guy pitching almost the entire season at the back of the rotation? That’s actually a pretty fantastic performance.
The decision here is effectively $5.25 million for 2026, and with Rea now coming off of back-to-back average-ish starting seasons (and showing no signs of wearing down at age 35), I’ve got to believe this is one the Cubs are going to sprint to pick up. Credit to Jed Hoyer and the front office for having the foresight to get this option included in the original deal.
© Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn ImagesCubs Qualifying Offer Decisions
As mentioned above, Shōta Imanaga could wind up falling into this category, depending on how his Cubs options decisions play out.
Meanwhile, the obvious guy here is Kyle Tucker. He is going to receive a Qualifying Offer from the Cubs, he is going to reject a Qualifying Offer from the Cubs, and he will thus be attached to draft pick compensation in free agency (i.e., the Cubs get a pick after the second round if he signs elsewhere, and that team will lose a combination of picks and IFA bonus pool money depending on its market size and luxury tax status).
Will any other Cubs players merit Qualifying Offer discussion?
Well, among the 11 other potential free agents for the Cubs, there’s really only one guy whose situation merits even a passing mention here: Brad Keller. (But let me be clear, this is more about having an interesting discussion than it is about any plausible reality. Keller is not receiving a Qualifying Offer.)
Having been a good starting pitcher in his younger days, and then having reinvented himself as a dominant reliever this past season, I do think Keller is going to net himself a solid contract in free agency. But I don’t think he’s going to top a one-year, $22 million Qualifying Offer, which means he’d almost certainly accept it, and that’s outrageously higher than a level the Cubs would even consider offering a reliever on a one-year deal (and likely any other team). Even in a world where the Cubs offered and Keller declined – say, for example, in an effort to market himself as a starting pitcher this offseason worthy of a Clay Holmes-type deal – the problem is that he’d be attached to draft pick compensation, which would CRUSH his market, and he might not even be able to sign until after compensation falls away at mid-season. So, again, his advisors would beg him to accept the Qualifying Offer. And, again, the Cubs know all this, so that’s why they would never make that offer.
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