The most famous image of George W Bush’s presidency is almost certainly the shot of him looking impassive – some would say gormless – as an aide gives him the terrible news on 9/11 that a second plane has hit the World Trade Centre.
The second most famous image came less than two years later, when just six weeks after invading Iraq, Bush posed on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in front of a huge banner declaring: “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED”. The occupation of Iraq would continue for more than a decade, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and fueled the rise of Isis. The image is historic for all the wrong reasons.
Donald Trump, though, is not a man overly concerned with learning lessons from history. On Monday, he stood in front of the Knesset and declared that he had secured “peace in the Middle East”, less than 24 hours after a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas had taken force.
There is no doubt that even securing this first step was a significant achievement: all 20 living Israeli hostages are free and safe, and without that deal they would still be in captivity. Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners are similarly enjoying their freedom, and aid is already flowing more freely into Gaza. For the first time in months, there are at least some reasons for hope.
But the gulf between signing a peace deal and securing a lasting peace is huge – and Trump seems almost wilfully oblivious of that. Already, the first fractures in the ceasefire are showing. Hamas has only released the bodies of four of the 28 dead hostages it was supposed to have returned by this time.
Palestinian media reports several people have been killed by Israeli drone strikes after the ceasefire deadline, while the IDF confirmed it opened fire on at least one group of Palestinians it says crossed an agreed red line. These incidents lack independent confirmation or explanation – both sides have been unreliable narrators at different points in the conflict – but events are agreed to have occurred.
Almost everyone – certainly anyone with decency – should want this ceasefire to hold, and this peace to last. The horrors of the conflict that is now paused are undeniable. Whatever anyone’s views on Trump, it is to be hoped that these flashpoints can be smoothed over, explained as the kind of miscommunications and mistakes that can occur early in peace deals.
But coming as early as they do, they show how much work and how much good faith will be needed to turn the ceasefire that currently exists into the comprehensive peace deal Trump imagines it to be. Trump’s memory is short. This ceasefire is barely 24 hours old, yet Trump’s team (working alongside the Biden White House in its final days) negotiated what it hoped would be a lasting peace in January, which fell apart in 35 days.
Making this deal work requires getting a genuine withdrawal of Israeli forces, evidence of Hamas actually disarming and departing, and managing complex logistics and diplomatic negotiations between numerous Middle Eastern players – and all of that is just to secure peace in Gaza, not the wider regional peace Trump imagines he has won. Iran is not party to this deal, and is surely still rankling after the targeted assassination of its leader by Israel and the strikes on its nuclear enrichment facilities by the US just months ago.
Diplomacy requires slow, patient – and often by necessity, discreet – work behind the scenes, endless compromise and the ability not to shoot from the lip. Trump’s bellicose and belligerent nature might have contributed positively to getting a deal this far – but neither he nor his team has sustained the months and years-long effort to turn a signed piece of paper into a reality on the ground.
There is very little mutual trust or goodwill between Hamas and Israel, for very good reasons. Each side will fear the other is merely playing at peacemaker, manoeuvring and manipulating their allies in the hope that they can present the other as the villain breaking a deal – jostling for advantage. Getting sincere concessions or developments from either will be tough.
America’s allies are clearly keen to step in and try to make something enduring and decent out of Trump’s deal. Tony Blair, in particular, could hardly be more eager. The UK Government is offering to convene events, and regional powers in the Middle East seem keen to at least show willing.
But by declaring victory, and saying peace has been secured so early, Trump risks the very deal he’s just signed. If people don’t believe his administration is in this for the long game, they have little reason to co-operate. There is every danger that Trump’s historical moment on Monday is remembered for the same reason as that of George Bush.
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