Monday’s matchup will be the latest between two of the NFL’s top young quarterbacks. Daniels and Washington won last year’s meeting on an unforgettable Hail Mary as time expired.
Bears vs. Commanders: The Key Stats
Chicago leads the NFL in third-down defense, allowing opponents to move the chains on just 29.3% of those plays. The Bears are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed a conversion this season on 3rd-and-10 or longer. Washington leads the NFL with 156.4 rushing yards per game. Since the start of last season, the Commanders are 10-0 when rushing for 150 yards or more, tied for the best record in the league. Terry McLaurin has yet to score a touchdown this season after recording a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns last season. McLaurin has 38 career receiving scores and will likely soon become the eighth player in Washington franchise history to reach 40 receiving touchdowns.A mere 18 months ago, the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders appeared to be rudderless organizations with little hope for the future.
Washington finished the 2023 season with just four wins and had been cycling through quarterbacks with little luck since the departure of Robert Griffin III. It was clear that Sam Howell was not the answer after his 21-interception campaign.
Chicago won seven games in 2023, but Justin Fields had worn out his welcome. The Bears – a franchise infamous for never producing a 4,000-yard passer – were ready to give up on yet another quarterback.
It’s amazing how a franchise quarterback can change the narrative.
Thanks to a trade with the Carolina Panthers, the Bears held the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and selected Caleb Williams. The Commanders chose Jayden Daniels with the next pick, and hope was revived in Chicago and Washington.
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4 hours ago Opta AnalystWhile Daniels enjoyed a better rookie season, guiding the Commanders to an NFC championship game appearance, Williams has shown improvements early this season. The two young quarterbacks will be in the spotlight on Monday Night Football when Williams’ Bears visit Daniels’ Commanders.
Daniels has missed two games this season with a sprained left knee, but he returned last week to lead Washington (3-2) to a 27-10 statement win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bears (2-2) had won two straight before having their bye last week, and Williams is having one of the best statistical stretches of his young career.
Monday’s matchup will be the latest entry into the debate between these blossoming quarterbacks. Daniels won last year’s edition 18-15 in Week 8, thanks to a 52-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass that set the tone for both teams’ 2024 seasons.
Fans will be hoping Round 2 is just as exciting and memorable.
A;FK;JD;KJF;LAKEJFLKJVAL;KEJL;JF;EFJ;LFAKJJAYDEN DANIELS HAIL MARY! @COMMANDERS WIN! pic.twitter.com/BsQ0Z84Rko
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024Bears’ Key to Victory vs. Commanders
The Bears may be at a fork in the road offensively. The addition of Ben Johnson as the team’s head coach and offensive architect has yielded some promising results, but there are still major obstacles in place.
Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in the league with a 36.3% overall success rate entering Week 6. And much of the problem has come with the running game, which ranks 24th at 102.3 rushing yards per game.
However, the advanced numbers show things could be even worse.
They’ve been operating with D’Andre Swift as the lone workhorse. Swift leads the team with 56 carries, while Williams is second with 24 and rookie Kyle Monangai is third with just 17.
The running game, which is averaging just 3.79 yards per carry (26th in the NFL) compared to Chicago’s opponents at 6.15, could continue to struggle against Washington this week.
The Bears’ favorite personnel grouping for designed runs features one back, two tight ends and two receivers (122 personnel). Washington counters 122 personnel with nickel over 70% of the time, which should give Chicago a blocking advantage against smaller defenders.
But the Bears’ rushing success rate is actually worse in 122 personnel at 29.1%. Maybe the running game can get on track against a Washington defense that doesn’t match heavy personnel, but it may be a better idea for the Bears to lean on their young quarterback.
Williams has made strides as a pure passer, raising his passer rating from 87.8 as a rookie to 97.8 so far in 2025. So it may be time for his play-caller to trust him more.
Offensive coaches usually protect young QBs with play-action concepts, rollouts, bootlegs and screens, with the pure drop-back passing game potentially more difficult. But Williams has thrived in the drop-back game with a 50.0% success rate and an average of 10.0 yards per passing play, ranking third in the NFL in both.
Rome Odunze has emerged as Williams’ preferred target in the drop-back game with a 31.4% target share on those plays. Odunze is averaging 3.7 burn yards per route run – fourth among receivers with at least 50 routes.
Commanders’ Key to Victory vs. Bears
Daniels has already had an interesting season, and he’s only played three games. The Commanders are 2-1 with a plus-23 scoring differential in his three starts, though his individual statistics have declined.
Daniels’ passer rating and yards per attempt are down from his rookie season, but the major concern is some unexpectedly shaky accuracy numbers, with his completion percentage down to 59.2% from 69.0% last year.
The accuracy concerns are reflected in the advanced statistics as well. Daniels’ 70.7% well-thrown rate is the worst among quarterbacks with at least 50 adjusted pass attempts, and down from 77.8% last season. His 64.2% expected completion percentage also ranks last among qualified quarterbacks this season.
Until Daniels gets back into a groove, the Commanders will be better served to lean heavily on the running game – particularly out of the shotgun. The team is averaging 5.8 yards per running play out of shotgun, and the Bears have given up 7.8 per shotgun rushing play.
Daniels could then find success through the air after establishing the ground game. Washington is averaging 8.2 yards per play on play-action concepts, while Chicago is allowing 12.8 yards per play against play-action.
Opta Supercomputer’s Prediction
So, who claims Round 2 in Williams vs. Daniels?
The Opta supercomputer gives the Commanders a 68.3% chance (as of Sunday) of improving to 4-2 and pulling into a tie atop the NFC East alongside the sliding Philadelphia Eagles.
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Bears vs. Commanders Predictions: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and the Hail Mary Revisited Opta Analyst.
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