Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from the New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
But we think this fiasco goes even deeper. Greene has exposed serious cracks in the MAGA coalition and revealed why Trump’s stance in this battle is weaker than it first appeared. We’re unraveling all this today with congressional scholar Norman Ornstein, author of a new piece urging Democrats to hold the line in this battle. Norm, good to have you on.
Sargent: So let’s start here. Democrats are demanding that Trump and Republicans agree to extend the expanded ACA subsidies, Affordable Care Act subsidies, that were enacted under President Biden. If they expire, millions will be hurt. Norm, a lot of pundits reflexively predicted at the outset of this that Trump would win any protracted standoff over it. Yet as of now, that hasn’t happened. What’s your explanation for this?
And Clinton — and the clever people around him, but also the things that Gingrich said — put the blame very squarely on Republicans. And there were a lot of Republicans in the country whose businesses were hurt and whose lives were disrupted by the shutdown.
Well, what we have now is an unusual circumstance. It’s one where there’s not divided government. The Republicans — as Americans, even those who don’t follow things very closely, know — have the reins of power. This is Donald Trump, who is proclaiming all the time that he’s running things, that he is all-powerful. So I think that puts them a little bit on the defensive.
Sargent: Well, that’s the thing, Norm. They do want to take it away. And that’s why Marjorie Taylor Greene’s grenade blew up so resoundingly. She did this extended tweet that included this: “I’m absolutely disgusted that health insurance premiums will double if the tax credits expire this year.” She added, “not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums doubling.”
Ornstein: It certainly does. And let’s also add, Greg, that far more people in red states and districts rely on Obamacare. So far more people would be screwed completely if these subsidies disappear — Republicans rely on them even more than Democrats.
Republicans are divided now. I’ve seen many statements from Freedom Caucus Republicans saying, No, let those subsidies disappear. A lot of their allies out there are saying, we’re for fiscal discipline — which of course is farcical in and of itself — but these were supposed to be temporary, and if you make them permanent, it’s gonna cost so much money.
You know, there’s another point here, Greg, which is this isn’t just about the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, as we know it. It’s also about the meat-axe — the giant meat-axe — that Republicans took in their so-called “big, beautiful bill” to Medicaid, which is putting not just rural hospitals but all hospitals in a terrible place, which is going to cost even more in terms of the health burdens on Americans — which will cost lives.
Sargent: Right, Norm. So it seems that even health insurance commissioners across the country are essentially suggesting that Republicans really can’t do this, yeah?
And remember, if people lose their insurance, they’re going to end up going to emergency rooms when they have problems. They’re going to have diseases that are untreated and will end up costing more. And what this insurance commissioner said is every insurance company now preparing for this has two sets of rates: one is what they’re gonna do come January 1 if the subsidies are continued; the other is what they’re gonna do if they’re not.
And Democrats — let me add, Greg — need to find a way — it’s much better, frankly, if we can do something to help people who are in need and have them back off of their belligerence. But we also need a commitment that there will be no bait and switch — that we can’t do this and then have Trump, after there’s a bipartisan agreement with the Senate and then with the House, go back and use his rescissions to eliminate a lot of the spending that they agree on.
Sargent: Well, I think there’s another thing worth focusing on here. Trump and Republicans want this debate to be all about the supposed desire of Democrats to give health insurance to undocumented immigrants. That’s a complete lie. But the entire GOP and MAGA propaganda apparatus has been blaring it out for weeks now.
Ornstein: So all of that nonsense, that set of lies, is aimed at that Republican base. And it’s repeated ad nauseam on Fox and on all of their right-wing shows. Okay, fine. It’s a lie. We should refute the lie.
So this is, I think, you know, it’s a way of mollifying their rabid cultist base. It will do nothing to alter the political consequences. And what has to happen here, what Democrats were able to do is to make sure that, if subsidies disappear and rates go up, it’ll be clear who’s responsible.
Norm, what do you know about where Republicans actually are on this? It does seem like the ones who are vulnerable in 2026 would like to find a way out of this. But on the other hand, as you say, the Freedom Caucus lunatics really are just salivating for Obamacare to implode or whatever they think is going to happen. Is there any chance the party can get behind anything at all worthwhile?
So we’re not going to see anything other than a sham unless they ultimately have to cave and give in on those subsidies. And whether they’re going to give in on some of the horrible changes in Medicaid, I don’t know. Democrats, though, have to get out there and they need to go to hospitals and they need to go to red districts and states and they need to make it clear, day after day after day, what the stakes are here and where the parties are. And if that happens, Republicans are in a bad place, I believe.
And I think Greene, by sort of exposing the truth about the Republican Party stance on this, kind of gave Democrats a wedge that they can use to really split the MAGA coalition on this. What do you think?
That’s the issue that propelled Mamdani to a place where he is likely to be the next mayor of New York City. It’s affordability — because this isn’t just about the costs of healthcare, although that’s the prime mover. It’s about how that fits in with every cost that working Americans face, now under siege because of Trump’s tariffs.
And if you take the fact that rents are going up, food costs are going up, back-to-school costs are enormous, all of these tariffs — cars are going to be more expensive — and then you get a doubling of your healthcare premiums — and that’s all on Trump and Republicans right now.
Ornstein: So I don’t think we’re going to find Republicans agreeing to permanently extend the subsidies or do it, say, over a ten-year period. What I do think is possible is that Republicans agree to have a one-year or two-year extension of those subsidies so that they can say, look at the ten-year window, we’re being less fiscally irresponsible than we were, and maybe ameliorate some of the bad impacts of the Medicaid changes.
But having said that, Greg, I’d make one other point, which is the longest shutdown we’ve had was thirty-five days. Why didn’t it go longer? Why don’t they go longer? Employees of the government — whether they’re working because it’s essential or not — do not get paid during a shutdown. The law written in 2019, after that last big shutdown, says unequivocally they all get back pay.
So the pressure is going to be great. One of the reasons that the last shutdown ended when it did is a very large number of TSA workers — and remember, they’re paid a pittance — started to call in sick because they were required to work. You know, if you’re not working for the federal government, you’re on a furlough. At least you might be able to bring in a little money by taking a job at a Walmart or at a gas station or doing something else.
Sargent: Well, Norm, I will say one thing about your scenario in which there’s sort of a deal for a short-term extension of the subsidies. Let JD Vance explain to the public, as he’s running for president in 2028, that the ACA subsidies are about to expire because of his party. So it’s a it’s small consolation maybe, but there may be poetic justice at the end of this whole thing.
Sargent: Well said, Norm. Norm Ornstein, thank you so much for coming on with us. Always great to talk to you.
Orinstein: Good to talk to you too, Greg.
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