The spectre of Nigel Farage is hanging over the Conservative conference in Manchester just as it did 35 miles away for Labour in Liverpool last week.
But for the Tories the threat of Reform is less electoral, and more existential.
On Tuesday morning, Farage announced the defection of 20 Tory councillors to Reform, declaring “the Conservative Party is finished”.
A YouGov poll published on Monday suggested Tory members were evenly split on whether the party should merge with Reform, while a clear majority (64 per cent) said they should at least form an electoral pact to knock Labour out of power.
Half of them think Kemi Badenoch should not lead the party into the next election, with pretender to the crown Robert Jenrick – who has arguably positioned himself to the right of Farage on immigration – attracting more support.
In other polls, the Tories are in third place with support at a lowly 16 per cent, with Reform out ahead in the early-to-mid 30s.
Panic in the rank and file
Among the rank-and-file, there is panic, with one member at the conference, which is festooned with tributes to Margaret Thatcher, including a display of her famous outfits, telling The i Paper: “We can’t just ignore Reform in the main hall and talk about a woman who’s been dead for years.”
“Members like me, we need something more. We need action.”
Another Tory member said they’d spoken to at least half a dozen people who were holding Reform and Conservative memberships simultaneously, with some actively attending meetings for both.
But Badenoch and many in her shadow ministerial team are defiant, potentially even in denial.
Nigel Farage has loomed over the Tory conference (Photo: James Manning/PA Wire)In a series of broadcast interviews on Tuesday, Badenoch dismissed the Tory member poll numbers on both her performance and the preference for a pact with Reform, telling ITV News: “They’re not right at all, and I don’t believe a lot of these members’ polls.”
Badenoch suggested Tory defectors to Reform were too flaky for a party that needs to do the hard yards of Opposition, and potentially the even tougher job of governing.
A shadow Cabinet member simply shrugged them off: “There aren’t any MPs [defecting]? Just councillors? Well, that’s a bit of a damp squib.”
A Tory former Government adviser meanwhile suggested defectors would live to regret it.
“I personally think it’s very short-sighted of people who have defected. Reform are untried and untested, they don’t have serious people behind the scenes. I suspect it will all unravel and it’s just a matter of when.”
Belief that Farage has been ‘neutralised’
One shadow minister also claimed opinion polls are wrong and may have been influenced by “chatbots” launched by hostile states such as Russia, while another Tory MP suggested Badenoch simply ignores Reform: “We’re the grown-ups. Grown-ups talk over the children, not at them.”
The belief of many in Badenoch’s team is that now that she has effectively neutralised dividing lines with Farage on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and on the environment, Reform can be reined in if the Tories differentiate themselves on the economy.
There is space opening up for the Tories on the economy, with Badenoch dismissing the prospect of a pact with Reform because they are “left-wing” and in favour of nationalisations and lifting the two-child benefit cap, while Labour is poised to hike taxes even further than the £40bn raised in last year’s Budget, after failing to deliver welfare cuts or sufficient growth.
“We are the party of fiscal responsibility,” Badenoch insisted.
And in her speech to conference on Wednesday she will say: “It starts with fiscal responsibility. We have to get the deficit down.
“And we must also show how every tax cut or spending increase is paid for.
A carboard cut-out of Margaret Thatcher at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, which is festooned with tributes to the former PM (Photo by Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)“So today, I am going to introduce a new golden economic rule.
“Every pound we save will be put to work. At least half will go towards cutting the deficit.”
Reform a ‘one trick pony’
The shadow minister who believes the polls are wrong put it more prosaically: “Farage is a gobshite.
“Reform are a one trick pony on immigration, what have they got to say on the economy?
“It’s easy to say what people think, but what’s their offer on the economy?”
They admitted “we f***ked up big time”, shredding the Tory reputation for economic credibility with the ill-starred premiership of Liz Truss, but stressed “we’ve done the mea culpa”.
“It will take time” to restore that credibility “but with the way the economy is going”, a platform built on major welfare cuts, tax breaks for young house-buyers, and a generally sound money strategy could prove profitable with four years until the next election and the potential for economic doom in the meantime.
The strategy has helped unite Tory moderates behind the policies to quit the ECHR and water down green policies, with one shadow Cabinet member saying it was “pragmatic” given the Reform threat.
“If it’s seen by people as being right wing then so be it but in the same framing I would say the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour are all moving left, even more so.
“Reform are high spend, pro-welfare, nationalisation and fantasy economics – I’m really not sure who or what they are.”
Economy a ‘sound money’ approach
While sources signalled there are battles to come over the climate change policy, with predictions it would be watered down once it goes through internal party processes, there is a pulling together behind a strategy that Tory elections expert Lord Hayward said was a “sound money” approach.
square YASMIN ALIBHAI-BROWN A fearless fightback against Farage is now under way
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He told The i Paper: “The key risk was drifting without policies, and I think if we were sitting here in a year’s time, the most important aspect, other than ECHR/immigration… is on the economy.
“She has redoubled her position on what the ordinary Tory would identify as a sound money policy, and that is where the differentiation comes with Reform.”
Despite the defiance, many Tories believe Badenoch is highly likely to face a leadership challenge either this autumn or after an expected party drubbing in May’s local elections.
“It could be November or it could be May, but it’s definitely happening,” a senior Tory politician said.
A vote of no confidence from her own MPs may be harder to brush aside for Badenoch than opinion polls.
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