Chicago Cubs Lineup – NLDS Game 2: Justin Turner (Position Player Opener?) ...Middle East

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CUBS LINEUP — Well, the Cubs are starting this series in a hole, down 0-1 after dropping the opener in Milwaukee on Saturday. But the general goal for these first two games in Milwaukee (taking a split back to Chicago) is still alive. And I feel more confident about Shota Imanaga on normal rest (… and just in general, right now) than I did about Matthew Boyd on short rest over the weekend.

The Brewers are playing coy with their pitching plan tonight. A southpaw, Aaron Ashby, is opening things up, but most expect Quinn Priester to come in for the “bulk” thereafter.

But Craig Counsell is adjusting the Cubs lineup with Ashby in mind.

Chicago Cubs Lineup:

Justin Turner, 1B Nico Hoerner, 2B Kyle Tucker, DH Seiya Suzuki, RF Ian Happ, LF Carson Kelly, C Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF Dansby Swanson, SS Matt Shaw, 3B

I’ll understand fan concern in starting Justin Turner over Michael Busch, but I do think it’s a justifiable decision.

Verus left-handed pitching this season, Busch has slashed just .207/.274/.368 (81 wRC+) with a 27.4% strikeout rate. Justin Turner, by contrast, is at .276/.330/.429 (112 wRC+) with an 18.3% strikeout rate. The odds of Turner doing something valuable in his 1-2 PAs may not be very high, but they’re a lot higher than Busch’s chances right now. Or at least that’s what Craig Counsell and the Cubs are thinking.

But more importantly, we don’t need to sweat it too badly, because there’s zero chance Justin Turner finishes this game at first base. Busch will come in the moment Ashby is removed. So in a way, Turner is Craig Counsell’s “opener” in the Cubs lineup to counteract Pat Murphy’s opener on the mound.

Would I prefer the Brewers just started Quinn Priester (the likely bulk guy), so that Busch could start? Yeah, I would. And that’s why they’re not. A little chess match before the game even begins.

Win this one and you’ll feel good about the Cubs chances with the series swinging back to Chicago. Lose and, well, there are not many teams that come back from being down 2-0 in the DS.

Milwaukee Brewers Lineup:

Not out yet, but Jackson Chourio is starting, leading off, and playing center field, despite some concerns after leaving Game 1 with an injury.

Pitching Matchup:

Chicago Cubs: Shota Imanaga, LHP

Earlier today, I wrote 700 words on Shota Imanaga’s season, his history against the Brewers, and his matchup tonight in Milwaukee. So if you’re looking for the lowdown, that’s where it is.

The short version? Imanaga is rested and was throwing hard his last time out, but is still homer prone and has gotten tagged by a handful of these Brewers before. With Colin Rea rested and ready to go – and after Imanaga was left in one too many batters last time – I wouldn’t be surprised by a quicker hook from Craig Counsell this time around.

Milwaukee Brewers: Aaron Ashby, LHP + Quinn Priester, RHP

Quinn Priester is expected to get the bulk tonight, and has operated with an opener before (including one of his three “starts” against the Cubs this season.

May 2 (w/ opener): 4.1 IP, 6H, 7ER, 4BB, 4K … 2HRs July 29 (no opener): 5.2 IP, 8H, 2ER, 2BB, 3K … 1 HR Aug. 21 (no opener): 4.1 IP, 3H, 1ER, 5BB, 4K

As you can see, the Cubs lineup has had no shortage of success against Priester in the past, including a barrage of hits, plenty of walks, and more than their fair share of power. However, Priester was quite good this season overall: 3.32 ERA over 157.1 IP.

How does he succeed? Mostly on the strength of TONS of groundballs and a low barrel rate. In the postseason, that could mean some critical double plays. So maybe the Cubs will be a little more aggressive on the bases, once they do reach vs Priester (circumstances warranting, of course).

And generally speaking, Priester has fairly significant lefty/righty splits, with lefties doing a lot more damage than righties both this season and especially for his career. That is why, we think, the Brewers are opening up the game with the left-handed Aaron Ashby.

In fact, we don’t even know for sure that Priester is coming in, but we do know that Ashby is starting.

To that end, Ashby has started just one game this season, but has gone multiple innings plenty of times, including against the Cubs:

June 19: 1.2 IP, 3H, 2ER, 0BB, 1K … HR July 29: 3.1 IP, 1H, 1ER, 1BB, 2K Aug 19.: 3.2 IP, 4H, 1ER, 0BB, 3K

Ashby is also a big groundball guy (62%, 7th highest in MLB, min. 50 IP), but he can also strike you out at a high clip (28.1 K%), with only slightly more walks than the average pitcher. Righties have hit Ashby, a lefty, better than lefties have, but the spread isn’t particularly significant.

Broadcast Info:

Chicago Cubs (0-1) vs Milwaukee Brewers (1-0) at 8:08 pm CT – TBS, HBO Max, 670 The Score, ESPN Radio

Cubs vs Brewers – Key Injuries:

Chicago Cubs:

Owen Caissie, OF Miguel Amaya, C Ryan Brasier, RP Cade Horton, RHP Justin Steele, LHP

Milwaukee Brewers:

Brandon Woodruff, SP Jordan Mongtomery, SP Garrett Mitchell, OF Connor Thomas, RP Logan Henderson, SP Shelby Miller, RP

Cubs vs Brewers – American Family Field Weather Report

Location: Milwaukee, WITemperature: 62 degrees, slight chance of rain, so I’m guessing the Dome will be closedWind: Dome will probably be closed

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