Like Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, Shota Imanaga is once again slated to take the mound tonight in a key Cubs playoff game (are any of them not key?). But this time, his start won’t be at the windy Wrigley Field, and it won’t come with the benefit of an opener.
Against the Padres last week, Imanaga tossed 4.0 solid-ish innings, but was (unfortunately) left in one batter too long, as Manny Machado homered with a runner on second, two outs, and first base open. The Cubs didn’t wind up scoring in that game anyway, but that definitely felt like the dagger. And home runs will be the biggest thing to keep an eye on tonight.
Shota Imanaga — 2025 Season
As I’m sure you’re acutely aware, Imanaga, for all his many talents, is basically the most homer-prone starting pitcher in MLB: 31 HRs allowed (t-3rd most), 1.93 HR/9 (worst in MLB, min. 140.0 IP). And that got even worse in the second half of the season, when he allowed FIVE more homers than the next most homer-prone pitcher and was the only guy with a HR/9 over 2.00 … yeah, yikes.
But here’s the modestly good news: The Brewers are not a home-run team. Obviously, they can score runs in all sorts of ways (as we saw in the very first inning of Game 1), but when it comes to homers, that hasn’t really been their game:
166 homers overall (22nd) 40 HRs vs LHP overall (24th) 16 HRs vs LHP in second half (26th) © Darren Yamashita-Imagn ImagesShota Imanaga vs the Brewers
On a more granular level, Shota Imanaga has faced the Brewers four times in his career. The first of which, last season, was one of the worst starts of his career (4.1 IP, 8H, 7ER, 1BB, 1K … 2 HRs). The other three, all this season, were a good bit better:
May 4 (@MIL): 5.2 IP, 4H, 2ER, BB, 4KJuly 30 (@MIL): 5.0 IP, 5H, 3ER, 0BB, 8K … 2 HRsAug. 21 (vsMIL): 7.0 IP, 3H, 2ER, 2BB, 5K … HR
The home run hitters this season: Brice Turang (8/21), William Contreras x2 (July 30). Last season: Willy Blake Perkins, Christian Yelich.
And here’s just a general look at the Milwaukee Brewers vs Shota Imanaga lifetime (not a ton of significant history here, unfortunately).
Jake Bauers: 0-2 Jackson Chourio: 1-5 Isaac Collins: 1-9, 3K William Contreras: 3-10, 2 HR, BB, 2K Caleb Durbin: 0-7, K Sal Frelick: 1-6, K Brandon Lockridge: 0-4 Joey Ortiz: 4-9, 2B, K Blake Perkins: 3-4, 2 2Bs, HR, K Brice Turang: 1-9, HR, 4K Andrew Vaughn: 3-7, BB, K Christian Yelich: 3-10, HR, BB, 3K © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn ImagesNow, with all of that said, the Brewers are a pretty solid team versus left-handed pitching this season (107 wRC+, 8th in MLB). Andrew Vaugn (202 wRC+) and Jackson Chourio (168 wRC+) have done the most damage, but Milwaukee has 11 hitters with above-average slash lines vs lefties this season. And two of the guys who didn’t reach that, William Contreras (99 wRC+) and Christian Yelich (87 wRC+), are two of the Brewers’ bigger home run threats (both of whom have hit one off Imanaga, too).
On a separate note, whether this is a good thing or not, Shota Imanaga was very much amped up in his first playoff start of the year. His average velocity was up across the board on each of his pitches: four-seamer (+1.4 MPH), sweeper (+1.2 MPH), splitter (+1.5 MPH). Again, I don’t know if you really want that, but at least he’s healthy and feeling good.
And one final thought: Although Craig Counsell isn’t rolling with an opener tonight in Milwaukee, and is likely hoping Imanaga can give them some length, there are a handful of long-arm righties who could slide in after an aggressive pull (necessarily or just preferred). Aaron Civale, Ben Brown, and Mike Soroka each threw on Saturday, but Colin Rea is fresh and ready to go.
Again, in an ideal world, Imanaga is absolutely CRUISING and can hand the ball directly to the backend guys. But after Counsell left him in one batter too long last time out, I wouldn’t be surprised if he acts a little sooner this time around.
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