Kemi Badenoch is treating leadership like a maths exam. It could work ...Middle East

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The spirit of Margaret Thatcher greets you as soon as you enter the Conservative Party Conference.

Three of the Iron Lady’s most famous outfits are on display for her birth centenary, which the Tories are celebrating lavishly with several parties. One glass case holds the Aquascutum fawn gabardine raincoat and silk scarf, famously worn by the former prime minister while riding in a tank in 1986, an unmissable symbol of her political strength.

It’s a throwback to better times. Now the so-called natural party of government is still reeling from its 2024 election defeat. At their annual conference in Manchester, the Tories are simultaneously struggling to distance themselves from a dismal record in office and to get the public to pay them any attention.

In her opening address on Sunday Tory leader Kemi Badenoch kicked off with some contrition.

“People won’t listen to us again until we have shown we have learned from our mistakes and changed,” she said. “Yes, we tried but, put simply, we didn’t achieve enough. After years of responsible and effective government, our mistakes on the economy and on immigration lost us the trust and confidence of the public.”  

On Sunday Badenoch announced an eye-catching vow to create an American ICE-style “removals force” to tackle illegal immigration to the UK, which follows her pledge to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The Tories say they would deport all new arrivals within a week, abolish judicial review of migration claims and ban legal aid.  

The Tories will ban migrants from settling indefinitely in the UK if they claim benefits, social housing or have a criminal record. But Reform has already outbid the Tories by threatening to deport hundreds of thousands of migrants in the UK. In this game of one-upmanship, does the public only listen to the highest bidder?

The Conservatives say voters deserve to see their reasoning, publishing the conclusions of a legal review into why the UK should leave the ECHR. Like a GCSE maths paper, the Tories hope by showing their working, they’ll score marks even if they get the ultimate answer wrong.

“In the last 12 months, we started doing politics in a new way,” Badenoch told supporters in her opening address. “No more making the announcement first then working on policy second.”

A shadow cabinet member told The i Paper that the two-dozen planned policy announcements over four days is deliberately designed to “put rocket boosters” to their voter appeal.

The Conservatives are battling Reform’s combination of social conservatism alongside a pick ‘n’ mix of right- and left-wing economic populism.

In Manchester on Sunday, keen for a gimmick, the Tories handed out fake fag packets with their satire of a Reform manifesto scribbled on the back. “Unlimited benefits; Cosy up to Putin; More debt; More Spending; More Tax,” it read.

Although Farage currently enjoys strong poll numbers, the Tories and Labour expect his lead will shrink as voters assess Reform’s fiscal plans before the next general election.

They think he is making unforced errors. Farage’s decision to support ending the two-child benefit cap, which could cost £3bn, has bewildered strategists from the two main parties.

While the Tories think the “socialist” decision will alienate working-class voters who want benefits capped, Labour thinks those who will be better off are unlikely to vote Reform.    

If Badenoch can show enough contrition and get voters listening again, her check-my-working approach may do the Tories a favour in the next few years. The Tories say both Labour and Reform are weak on economic competency.

“We still poll well on the economy and favourability of business compared to our rating overall, so we need to make the most of that,” one Tory MP said. “We need to keep hold of the ‘sound money’ argument.”

In a transatlantic world where right-wing Maga ideology is flourishing, British politics is being dragged to the right. Labour knows this and has installed a new Home Secretary to pick up the pace on small boats.

That shift should, in theory, give Badenoch more leeway to develop and explain her policy plans.

But after five different leaders since 2016, regicide is never very far from the thoughts of Tory MPs, even if the party’s grassroots would be less forgiving of a navel-gazing leadership contest.  

Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick’s allies are already gathering letters of no-confidence in Badenoch, ready to strike “when the time is right,” The i Paper and The Times reported over the weekend. Jenrick’s spokesman denied he was involved.

Any unrest is because of Badenoch’s poor poll numbers and the Tories’ anticipated losses in the upcoming local elections. Some Tories are too impatient to wait for better luck as they watch their friends defect to Reform.

square IAN BIRRELL

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“I didn’t say it would be easy. I didn’t say it would be quick,” Badenoch told delegates, insisting she is doing politics “properly.”

Back at the conference entrance are Thatcher’s three iconic outfits. They include her gold-buttoned, royal-blue, wool crepe suit in which she delivered her famous rejection of closer European political and monetary union: “No. No. No,” she declared to the House of Commons in 1990.

That’s a message Badenoch – who wants to leave the ECHR – can get behind.

Badenoch wasn’t giving up a chance to mention such an icon. “As one of my great predecessors Margaret Thatcher put it, the facts of life are Conservative,” she said.  

“There is a gap for the responsible, optimistic, competent, Conservative approach; an approach rooted in balance,” Badenoch concluded.

But as she leaves the conference after a successful first day, she should avert her eyes. Perhaps most poignant of all the items on display is the burgundy wool twill suit which Thatcher wore as she left Downing Street in tears in 1990 to tender her resignation to the late Queen.  

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