Good morning. The U.S. government shutdown continues. While shutdowns aren’t new, the timing of this one may prove to be another test of resilience during uncertain times.
“The government shutdown is a symptom, not the story,” said Bridget Gainer, chief public affairs officer at Aon. “While Aon’s data shows that disruption is now a constant—from geopolitical tensions to regulatory paralysis—most businesses are still managing it like a one-off event.”
Shutdowns can delay contracts, squeeze liquidity, and reveal how unprepared many companies are to absorb shocks, Gainer said. “What we’re telling clients is that planning for resilience isn’t a reaction—it’s a strategy for survival.”
Due to the government shutdown, key economic data—such as the September jobs numbers scheduled for release on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics—will be halted. U.S. employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, as the labor market continued to cool. Last month, the Labor Department said hiring decelerated from 79,000 in July. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.
I asked Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon’s chief economist, about the impact of the BLS not publishing the job numbers on Friday. “The absence of key data like the jobs report would temporarily blind business leaders, policymakers, and investors, heightening volatility and reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependency dilemma,” Daco said. It would also amplify economic uncertainty at a time when the economy is showing mixed signals, he added.
Regarding the impact on companies, Daco said that businesses rely on official data to inform hiring, investment, and pricing decisions. “A shutdown-induced data blackout undermines confidence and increases planning risk. It adds friction at a time when many companies are already navigating a noisy policy and economic environment.”
In August, employers announced 85,979 job cuts, the highest August total since 2020, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Through August, cuts reached 892,362, up 66% from the same time last year, already surpassing the full-year 2024 total of 761,358, per the firm.
If the shutdown continues, CFOs should prioritize agility in scenario planning, Daco said. With potential delays in economic data and government operations, finance chiefs should prepare for market volatility and disruptions to federal contracts, permits, or tax processing, he said.
“Uncertainty breeds caution, but it can also be a strategic advantage—firms that stay nimble will be better positioned to act once clarity returns,” Daco said.
Sheryl Estradasheryl.estrada@fortune.com
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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