The No. 18 Florida State Seminoles became the latest victim of an unexpected upset, falling to Virginia 46-38 during week five’s Friday Night Lights action. Now, the Noles are eager to shake off that disappointment as they prepare for a fierce clash against their long-time rivals, the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes, who are riding high after a commanding 26-7 victory over Billy Napier and the Florida Gators.
But how do the analytics stack up in this intense in-state rivalry? According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes are favored with a solid 65.3% chance to win while the Seminoles sit at 34.7%.
Miami running back Mark Fletcher showcased his skills with an impressive performance against Florida —116 rushing yards on 24 carries and one touchdown—while CharMar Brown added depth with four receptions totaling 53 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
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As both teams gear up for battle under the lights at Doak Campbell Stadium, one critical factor could determine victory: third-down conversions. Currently, FSU ranks sixth in the FBS with an impressive conversion rate of 58.8%, while Miami sits at 22nd with 51.1%.
Over their storied history, these two teams have faced off an impressive 69 times, with Miami holding a slight edge in the overall series at 36 wins to FSU’s 33.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, live on ABC.
ESPN’s FPI projects outcome of Miami vs. Florida State game Saturday Down South.
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