Not that the Cubs need any bulletin board material, nor do they need any kind of reminder that the Padres are a very talented team.
But I still found it interesting that, in Ken Rosenthal’s postseason preview, he picked the Padres as this year’s “Cinderella” team (which he defines as a 5/6 seed that’ll make a run). That means, by definition, they’d have to get by the Cubs in the Wild Card Series.
From Rosenthal:
“[T]he Padres are a better choice [than the Guardians] – in part because they’re an especially potent No. 5 seed.
There are plenty of reasons not to like the Padres against the Cubs. Their 38-43 away record. The absence of Laureano. An offense that, for all its weapons, ranked only 18th in runs and 19th in OPS against lefties – a problem, considering the Cubs are likely to start lefties Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga in the first two games.
The Padres’ rotation beyond Game 1 starter Nick Pivetta also is questionable, but man, that bullpen. Manager Mike Shildt rode it hard, but he stole four days of rest for both Robert Suarez and Mason Miller in the final week. Even without Jason Adam, the Padres’ relievers are absurdly good. Their .619 opponents’ OPS was the best in the majors, with the Red Sox next at .652.”
I don’t know. Doesn’t actually read all that optimistically, does it? It’s basically Pivetta and an elite bullpen, so they’re the pick.
Not that I’d necessarily quibble with the idea that the Padres could absolutely beat the Cubs in two games on the strength of Pivetta and an elite bullpen. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field, it could be a couple low-scoring games where neither team does a whole lot against the opposing pitching staff. If that happens, maybe you’d favor the club with the better bullpen.
I’ll add that, when I review the rosters, I see that the Cubs’ one huge area of advantage is the length of their lineup *IF* they get guys clicking in these games. They have the bats to put up runs, even against good pitching, and that’s probably how they’re going to have to win these games. If they are low-scoring, one-run games, you might give a slight edge to the Padres.
… then again, since August 6, the Cubs have had the 6th best bullpen ERA in baseball, just two spots behind the Padres.
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