Which teams have the easiest and toughest fixtures over the next five Premier League matchdays? We can use the Opta Power Rankings to answer that…
Before a ball was kicked in the 2025-26 Premier League season, at Opta Analyst we analysed every team’s start to the campaign.
While all teams do eventually play each other twice, obviously, momentum can be an important element in football as it feeds confidence and, arguably, results.
When we considered the difficulty of each team’s start to 2025-26, we were looking for clues as to who could make an early statement and who might find themselves feeling the heat after the first five rounds of matches.
Well, that period has been and gone, with the past weekend’s action seeing every Premier League club play their fifth match of the campaign.
Narratives have started to form and some of those have been intrinsically linked to the fixture schedule.
With the first five matchdays out of the way, we analyse whether teams have performed to expectations, before looking ahead and the next five rounds of games.
First Five Matchdays: Expectations vs Reality
It probably makes most sense to begin with Manchester United.
Before the season began, their fixture schedule over the first five matchdays was deemed the toughest. How was that determined?
By using the Opta Power Rankings, we are able to quantify how easy (or difficult) each team’s schedule is. As a reminder, the Opta Power Rankings rate a frankly enormous number of teams (15,000+) across the globe based on a system that scores the current strongest side 100 and the weakest zero. Those scores are then used to rank the teams in order of strongest to weakest.
United’s opening five fixtures of 2025-26 saw them facing opposition with an average rating of 94.7, thus giving them the toughest start. Considering they were up against Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea in that run, few would’ve disagreed.
They came through their first five games with seven points. Sure, the Chelsea win might warrant an asterisk against it, and they lost to both Arsenal and City, but there’ll have been plenty of fans and neutrals alike predicting they’d get even fewer from those games.
The jury remains out on Ruben Amorim, but things could have gone a lot worse.
By the same token, Bournemouth deserve real praise. Andoni Iraola’s side were deemed to have the second-toughest opening slate, with their first five opponents having an average rating of 94.0, and yet they sit fourth with 10 points having lost only one of their matches. It’s their joint-best start to a Premier League campaign after five games, along with the 10 points they picked up in 2018-19.
Arsenal also faced teams with an average rating of 94.0; they too came through their first five games with 10 points, ahead of Tottenham and the Cherries on goal difference.
In fact, generally, the teams with the toughest schedules at the start of the season have done OK. The seven clubs deemed to have the hardest fixtures have all taken at least seven points. Leaders Liverpool have a maximum 15 points despite only four teams being handed a trickier start.
Granted, context is important for each team. For instance, Manchester City’s seven points looks a bit different to the same total amassed by promoted Leeds or Everton, but even Pep Guardiola will have looked at a schedule including Man Utd, Tottenham and Arsenal and thought there was potential for difficulty.
At the other end of the spectrum, the outlook is a bit more concerning for Aston Villa.
With an average opponent rating of 91.8 over the first five matchdays, Unai Emery’s men were deemed to have the easiest start; it ultimately proved a little problematic.
Their two toughest games (vs Newcastle and Crystal Palace) were both at home, but the first – a 0-0 draw – was impacted by a red card to Ezri Konsa, and they were then beaten 3-0 by Oliver Glasner’s side.
In fact, it took until Sunday’s trip to Sunderland for Villa to even score a goal. It wasn’t enough, though, despite the Black Cats being down to 10 men, with the visitors squandering a lead to draw 1-1.
They find themselves 18th in the table, winless and sitting on just three points. So much for the easiest start.
Chelsea, Palace, Sunderland and West Ham all had opening schedules against opposition with an average rating of 91.9. For the most part, they’ve done fairly well.
Palace are fifth with nine points, while Chelsea and Sunderland are sixth and seventh respectively with eight.
New boys Sunderland have suffered just one defeat since returning to the top flight, with their run of West Ham (H), Burnley (A), Brentford (H), Palace (A), Villa (H) giving them the chance to build a little momentum.
Their draw away to Palace was a commendable result in particular, while the 1-1 stalemate with Villa ultimately looked a decent outcome when framed by the fact they were reduced to 10 men in the first half.
West Ham, however, have endured a largely miserable start. The only one of their first five games they didn’t lose was a surprise 3-0 win at Nottingham Forest on the last day of August.
Three of their four defeats have been by three or more goals as well, leaving Graham Potter under increasing pressure. But could there be light on the horizon for them and the others who’ve struggled until now?
Who Have the Easiest Next Five Premier League Fixtures?
As we begin our glance ahead, the outlook for West Ham and Potter over the next five matchdays isn’t great.
While the average rating of their opponents (91.5) could be worse, they have trips to Everton, Arsenal and Leeds coming up, while Newcastle are one of the two teams (the other being Brentford) who’ll visit London Stadium.
There’s also cause concern for Villa.
They fell well short of expectations over the first five fixtures, and their next run of five includes matches against Tottenham (A), Man City (H) and Liverpool (A) after back-to-back home meetings with Fulham and Burnley.
That gives them an average opponent rating of 92.5, the third-toughest run of all Premier League teams.
It’s not much of an exaggeration to suggest Villa’s games with Fulham and Burnley might already be must-wins considering what’s to come.
Man Utd, of course, had the toughest start, but after beating Chelsea at the weekend, they might have a good opportunity to start stringing some positive results together now.
A trip to Anfield after the next international break obviously sticks out, and that very much bumps up their average opponent rating (90.8). But their other fixtures are against Brentford (A), Sunderland (H), Brighton (H) and Forest (A), a real mixture of inconsistency and top-flight inexperience.
The final game in that run, at Forest, comes exactly a year on from confirmation of Amorim’s appointment as manager. If United haven’t shown signs of kicking on by then, trouble will probably be on the horizon.
Speaking of trouble, Wolves are in need of some respite, and fast. They’ll hope it’s on the way given their average opponent rating across their next five games is 88.2, the lowest of all Premier League teams.
That’s mostly influenced by games against two of the promoted teams, Sunderland and Burnley, though they’ll potentially also see clashes with Brighton and Fulham as winnable.
If this sequence doesn’t help them turn things around, Vítor Pereira will be under extreme pressure, even if he did recently sign a new contract. Wolves head into this run having lost all of their first five matches.
Leeds are deemed to have the next easiest schedule of games. The toughest of their upcoming games (vs Bournemouth and Tottenham) are both at Elland Road. They then tussle with Burnley (A), West Ham (H) and Brighton (A).
Arsenal (89.5), Man City (89.5) and Spurs (89.6) come next with schedules that look fairly kind, though the Gunners do have a tough trip to Newcastle this weekend and Tottenham host Chelsea in five games’ time.
City, on the other hand, will be confident of potentially taking maximum points from a run of Burnley (H), Brentford (A), Everton (H), Villa (A) and Bournemouth (H).
Liverpool once again have the fifth-hardest run, but as mentioned, that didn’t stop them from winning their first five games. Their next two are tricky visits to the capital, though, to face unbeaten Crystal Palace and world champions Chelsea, before hosting United at Anfield.
As we move deeper into the 2025-26 campaign, early-season narratives will continue to evolve — and many will be shaped, or reshaped, by the fixture list.
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Premier League Fixture Difficulty: How Every Team’s Next Five Games Compare to Their First Five Opta Analyst.
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