News10NBC First Alert Weather Team has issued a Yellow Alert for Monday afternoon and evening. Current data has been trending up in strong storm potential. The greatest threats will be gusty winds and downpours. As of right now, the timing varies greatly, but the strongest storms may develop anytime after 4 p.m. on Monday and continue on into the evening. Areas that may be impacted most are the Southern Tier tracking northeast through the Finger Lakes.
Sunday brought beautiful weather with a mix of clouds, sun, and temperatures in the low 80s. After what is expected to be a nice sunset, thicker low-level clouds will start to move into Western New York after 9 p.m., ahead of a warm front. This front will kick our dew points up into the 60s overnight and moving into Monday. This will keep temperatures very mild overnight with an expected low of 64 degrees. Scattered showers and a rumble of thunder is possible after 9 p.m. with this precipitation starting earlier near Lake Erie. Winds will shift to out of the southwest following this front with speeds between 10 to 20 mph. Some folks south of Rochester may see gusts near 30 mph.
Expect a damp morning commute with scattered showers possible through Monday morning. Temperatures in the mid-60s for the morning will warm up to a high of 79 degrees in the afternoon. Breezy conditions do stick around for the day thanks to some stronger winds aloft that will be able to be brought to the surface. Ahead of the approaching cold front, warmth and moisture will continue to move up into Western New York aided by stronger mid-level southwesterly winds. This will provide the humidity (with dewpoints in the mid-60s), windshear, and convective forcing to cause some embedded stronger thunderstorms. Though this stronger storm threat has only recently appeared in the weather modeling, higher shear and more convective energy seems to be on the upward trend. The exact timing of these storms will change as updated data continues to come in.
As of the most recent model data, the strongest storms are expected after 4 p.m. and could continue late into the evening. These storms may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. With the available wind shear, it is also worth noting the possibility for some of these storms to form mild rotation. Current rainfall total model estimates predict most places seeing between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain from now until Tuesday morning. Those in Erie County, Ontario County, and southern Wayne County could see higher totals between 1.0 to 1.20 inches of rain.
Stay tuned to News10NBC with the latest updates and download the First Alert Weather app for weather alerts.
First Alert Weather: Yellow Alert issued for Monday afternoon and evening for strong storms WHEC.com.
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