Fed decision has a little bit of something for everyone ...Middle East

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The decision only saw Trump nominee Miran as the sole dissenter, voting for a 50 bps rate cutBowman and Waller did not join the more dovish camp, which was a possibilityFed chair Powell reaffirmed that "there wasn't widespread support at all for a 50 bps rate cut today"Latest dot plot projection shows 10 members expecting at least two more 25 bps rate cuts this yearMeanwhile, 9 members are expecting just one more 25 bps rate cut by year-endThe balance is skewed by Miran, who has his 2025 dot at 2.875% - in wanting a 50 bps rate cut at every meeting2026 dot plot median seen at 3.4%, 2027 dot plot median seen at 3.1% - both meeting expectationsFed chair Powell labels the decision as a "risk management" cutAdds that labour market risks were the focus of the decision, as inflation risks are "a little bit less" nowBut he also goes on to maintain that the Fed is on a data-dependent path, taking things meeting by meeting

So, what can we make of all of that by putting everything together?

That puts heavy focus on the next non-farm payrolls release on 3 October. If the trend continues, the Fed should be poised to cut rates again next month. But if there is some evidence of a rebound in jobs, that might yet take things off the table.

The dot plots weren't as dovish to convince of a more aggressive easing cycle, that despite Miran's skew. Meanwhile, Bowman and Waller not hopping on the 50 bps bandwagon this week means that policymakers are still heavily contemplating existing economic conditions before really taking a bolder step.

As far as yesterday's decision goes, there is a little bit of something for everyone. And that means at the end of the day, there might not be all much to work with given what markets have priced in before the decision.

As mentioned above, it's more so of a case now that US data has to prove market pricing wrong. Otherwise, there's not much of a need to overreach and/or overinterpret the FOMC meeting decision this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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