On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the average earnings index 3m/y, the claimant count change, and the unemployment rate. Canada’s highlight will be inflation data, while the U.S. will publish retail sales m/m.
On Thursday, New Zealand will release GDP q/q, and Australia will publish its employment change and the unemployment rate figures. The BoE will hold its monetary policy meeting, while in the U.S. we’ll get unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
In the U.S., the consensus for retail sales m/m is 0.2% vs prior 0.5%, and for core retail sales m/m is 0.4% vs prior 0.3%.
For August, sales are expected to moderate, with headline growth slowing to 0.4% and sales excluding autos rising 0.5%. While consumers still have spending power, headwinds from weaker sentiment, sticky inflation expectations and a cooling labor market suggest the pace of consumption is likely to slow over the rest of the year, analysts from Wells Fargo said.
Inflation figures, released the day before, will be crucial. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 1.7% to 2.1%, while core measures are likely to stay near 3%, the upper end of the BoC’s target.
The data leaves the door open for a rate cut, but sticky inflation and resilient household demand could persuade the BoC to keep rates on hold. However, if core inflation surprises to the downside, a cut this week becomes more likely.
As a reminder, the Fed kept rates on hold at recent meetings, emphasizing that inflation remained elevated while labor market conditions were relatively stable. Inflation is still the sticking point with core PCE running about one percentage point above target and tariff-driven goods inflation offsetting softer services prices.
Looking ahead, the Committee will likely stress that September’s cut is not the start of an automatic easing cycle, keeping policy decisions data-dependent.
The seasonal effect is subtracting about 0.5 percentage points from the June-quarter growth, while typically adding a similar boost to December-quarter results.
For Australian employment, Westpac forecasts a 15k increase for August, softer than the market’s 22k expectation. July data confirmed that the labour market is slipping back into a gradual cooling phase, similar to what occurred a year ago.
Australia’s unemployment rate held at 4.2% in July, following a temporary spike in June that Westpac analysts attribute largely to volatility in the youth labour segment. The rate continues to show a gradual upward drift from last year’s low of around 4.0%.
At this week’s meeting, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, consistent with its pattern of quarterly adjustments. Markets will focus on any hints about future policy, though forward guidance is likely to remain cautious, signaling that interest rates are edging closer to neutral.
Inflation is expected to show food prices rising above 5%, while services inflation may ease slightly. These prints are unlikely to alter the BoE’s expected rate-cut path, with a November reduction still favored unless there’s a major upside surprise, analysts at ING said.
Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation and the upcoming LDP leadership contest in early October have introduced a period of uncertainty that may weigh on BoJ decisions. As a result, the timeline for the next rate hike has been pushed back from October to early 2026. The future policy path could also hinge on whether the new leadership adopts more expansive fiscal measures.
Meanwhile, updated inflation data for August will be closely watched, especially for any upside surprises after three months of slowing price growth. For now, the BoJ is expected to remain on the sidelines, with rate hikes likely resuming in January 2026 and the policy rate rising toward 0.75%, Wells Fargo analysts said.
This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.Hence then, the article about market outlook for the week of 15th 19th september was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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