By Charlotte Wells on SwimSwam
It’s that time of the year again. SwimSwam will be previewing the top 12 men’s and women’s teams (and then some) from the 2025 NCAA Championships. Follow along with the College Swimming Preview Channel. Want to read even more? Check out the latest edition of the SwimSwam magazine.
Men’s #8 STANFORD CARDINAL
Key Losses: Jack Ryan (33 NCAA Points), Ron Polonsky (33 NCAA Points), Andrei Minakov (28 NCAA Points), Aaron Sequeira (5 NCAA Points), Avery Voss (1 NCAA Relay)
Key Additions: #5 Ethan Ekk (FL – free/back), #15 Jason Zhao (OH – free/breast), Ray Liu (back/IM), BOTR Andy Kravchenko (FL – free), BOTR Connor Jones (TX – free/IM), Omar Wiener (back), #2 Gunnar Grubbs (CA – diving), #9 Grant Schneider (CA – diving)
GRADING CRITERIA
Over the years, we’ve gone back and forth on how to project points, ranging from largely subjective rankings to more data-based grading criteria based on ‘projected returning points.’ We like being as objective as possible, but we’re going to stick with the approach we’ve adopted post-Covid. The “stars” will rely heavily on what swimmers actually did last year, but we’ll also give credit to returning swimmers or freshmen who have posted times that would have scored last year.
Since we only profile the top 12 teams in this format, our grades are designed with that range in mind. In the grand scheme of college swimming and compared to all other college programs, top 12 NCAA programs would pretty much all grade well across the board. But in the interest of making these previews informative, our grading scale is tough – designed to show the tiers between the good stroke groups, the great ones, and the 2015 Texas fly group types.
5 star (★★★★★) – a rare, elite NCAA group projected to score 25+ points per event 4 star (★★★★) – a very, very good NCAA group projected to score 15-24 points per event 3 star (★★★) – a good NCAA group projected to score 5-14 points per event 2 star (★★) – a solid NCAA group projected to score 1-4 points per event 1 star (★) – an NCAA group that is projected to score no points per event, though that doesn’t mean it’s without potential scorers – they’ll just need to leapfrog some swimmers ahead of them to do itWe’ll grade each event discipline: sprint free (which we define to include all the relay-distance freestyle events, so 50, 100 and 200), distance free, IM, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly and diving. Use these grades as a jumping-off point for discussion, rather than a reason to be angry.
Also, keep in mind that we are publishing many of these previews before teams have posted finalized rosters. We’re making our assessments based on the best information we have available at the time of publication, but we reserve the right to make changes after publication based on any new information that may emerge regarding rosters. If that does happen, we’ll make certain to note the change.
2024-25 Lookback
A regular presence in the top 10 at the Men’s NCAA Division Championships, Stanford continued to deliver strong performances across the board last season. The 2025 championship saw them take 8th for the third year running, boosting their score once again to a total of 216 points thanks to key swims from the likes of Ron Polonsky and Andrei Minakov.
Diver Jack Ryan led the team in scoring, racking up 33 points and bringing home the team’s only two top-three finishes of the meet. He took the runner-up spot in the 1-meter diving and secured bronze in the 3-meter diving event.
Tying Ryan’s score in the pool, Polonsky delivered standout performances in multiple events, landing in the top eight in two of his three individual races. He placed 5th in both the 100 breast and 200 IM and finished 12th in the 200 breast, posting best times in all three events. Minakov was another top performer, delivering 28 points thanks to his 4th-place finish in the 200 fly and 6th-place finish in the 200 fly.
Two more Cardinal men scored in the double digits at NCAAs last season, with Henry McFadden and Misha Andriyuk both picking up 11 points.
Despite the high-ranking performances from their athletes, the Stanford men did not fare as well at NCAAs as they did at the Atlantic Coast Championships a few weeks earlier. The ACCs saw Stanford place someone on the podium in 11 events, with a competitor placing in the top eight in all but one event.
Sprint Free: ★★
Stanford struggled in the sprint free discipline last season, earning zero points in the 50 and 100 free and only placing one swimmer in the top 16 in the 200 free at NCAAs. Henry McFadden placed 8th in the 200, his only individual points of the meet, to help boost the Cardinal’s overall score.
McFadden returns this season and looks like he will again be one of Stanford’s only scoring swimmers in the sprint free events. His best time in the 200 (1:30.82), which he posted during prelims, would have placed even higher at NCAAs and should be a valuable contribution to the relays. McFadden sits much farther outside the cutoff of the top 16 for the shorter races; he finished 30th in the 100 free at NCAAs with a season-best time of 42.12.
With Minakov gone this season, Andres Dupont boasts the next fastest time in the 200 free. He finished 28th in the event at NCAAs, but his lifetime best of 1:32.42 would have landed him at 25th overall. If Dupont can break into the lower 1:32 range this season, he could have a shot at squeezing into the ‘B’ final at the 2026 championship.
Dupont also stands to be the Cardinal’s leading man in the 100 free. He was the fastest swimmer on the team in that event last season, posting a lifetime best time of 41.72 at the SMU Last Chance Invite, but added time at NCAAs to place 33rd in 42.20. Dupont’s 41.72 would have ranked 17th, just outside the ‘B’ final cutoff, so if he can get back to top form at the end of this season, then he should be in good shape to break into the top 16.
Dupont contested the 50 free at last season’s NCAAs alongside teammate Rafael Gu, but neither of their times were quite able to cut it when it came to making the finals: Gu finished 38th in 19.36, and Dupont finished 44th in 19.45.
Distance Free: ★★½
The Stanford men look like they will fare a bit better in the distance freestyle events this season, with McFadden again being a key contributor for the team.
McFadden posted a lifetime best of 4:12.33 in the 500 free at ACCs, but added almost two seconds at NCAAs to wind up placing 20th overall. His best time would have landed him solidly in the ‘B’ final, putting him in a good position to score some points this season.
Newcomer Ethan Ekk could also contribute a few points in the 500. He joins the Cardinal with a best time of 4:13.55 from March; that time would have placed 18th at NCAAs, putting him just outside of the scoring cutoff. Ekk has improved his time in the 500 by considerable amounts each season since 2021, with the smallest time drop being 5.8 seconds, so if he can maintain that momentum and drop even just one second this season, he should be able to crack the top 16.
Liam Custer threw down a lifetime best time of 14:36.44 in the 1650 free at ACCs last season, his first personal best in the event since 2020. Custer added time at NCAAs and finished 16th in 14:43.50, still managing to pick up a point for the team. That was a huge step up from his performance in 2024, when he finished 30th overall. If he can continue that trend and replicate his personal best performance at NCAAs this season, Custer should be a key contributor for Stanford in this event; his time of 14:36.44 would have placed 11th at the 2025 NCAA Championships.
Another name worth considering for the distance freestyle events is Henry Morrissey. While he has never raced at NCAAs before, Morrissey has the second-fastest time on the team in the 1650 with a best time of 14:56.06 from the 2024 Pac-12 Championships. That time would have placed 27th at NCAAs last season.
Backstroke: ★★
It will be interesting to see what the Stanford men can do in the backstroke events this season, since they lost Aaron Sequeira, who was the Cardinal’s top backstroker for the past three years. At the 2025 NCAA Championships, Sequeira was Stanford’s only scoring swimmer in the 100 back and one of only two who scored points in the 200 back.
The only other Stanford swimmer to score in the individual backstroke events at NCAAs was Josh Zuchowski, who managed to snag one point by placing 16th in the 200 back. Zuchowski enjoyed a series of top performances in the postseason, having placed 4th at ACCs after setting a best time of 1:39.71 during prelims. He followed it up with another best time during the NCAA prelims, shaving a tenth off his time to go 1:39.61, so if he can stay consistent with these sub-1:40 times, he could even place higher at NCAAs this season.
Zuchowski also contested the 100 back and posted a personal best time of 46.17, but that time fell well outside of the cutoff to make the top 16, with him finishing 39th. He is currently poised to be the fastest competitor in the 100 back this season, with Finn Harland and Hayden Kwan coming in behind him at 46.24 and 46.79, so Stanford may be hard-pressed to score any points in the 100 back at NCAAs.
The wild card in the mix is freshman Omer Wiener, who joins Stanford from Israel and therefore does not have any SCY times logged yet. Wiener holds Israel’s youth record in the short course meters 50 back with a time of 24.20 and has clocked a 51.93 in the 100 back (SCM). Converted from SCM to SCY, those times would be 21.80 in the 50 back and 46.78 in the 100 back, which would bring some added depth to the Stanford backstroke group, but it remains to be seen what kind of times he will actually post when he hits the water.
Breaststroke: ★★
While losing Polonsky will deliver a blow to the Stanford men’s scoring chances, the Cardinal still looks pretty solid in the breaststroke discipline this season, with at least one swimmer projected to score in each distance at NCAAs.
Zhier Fan is the second-fastest Stanford performer of all-time in the 100 breast, thanks to his 51.28 at the SMU Last Chance Invite in March. That time would have placed 15th at NCAAs and should be enough to at least land him in the ‘B’ final if he can replicate that performance this season. As it was, Fan added over half a second at NCAAs last season and wound up finishing 30th overall.
Daniel Li will take the leading spot in the 200 breast. Stanford’s third-fastest performer of all-time in the event, Li’s best time of 1:51.83 qualified him for finals in the #16 spot at NCAAs before placing 15th in 1:51.86. He also stands to be Stanford’s #2 performer in the 100 breast this season but will need to improve his time by about half a second to earn a second swim at NCAAs. It took a time of 51.45 or better to qualify for the ‘B’ final, and Li placed 28th in 51.89.
Fan did not have a great performance in the 200 breast at NCAAs last season, adding time and finishing 37th, but his best time of 1:52.68 from 2024 would have been good enough for 23rd. If he can get back to where he was a year and a half ago, then Fan could also be a valuable competitor in the 200 breast this season.
Butterfly: ★½
Without Andrei Minakov this season, the Stanford men are going to have some considerable ground to make up in the butterfly discipline. Minakov placed 4th in the 200 fly and 6th in the 100 fly, bringing home 28 NCAA points from those two events alone, and it does not look like Stanford has anyone quite able to fill those shoes.
Gibson Holmes was Stanford’s second-fastest competitor in the 200 fly last season and the team’s only other swimmer to score in a butterfly event at NCAAs. He enjoyed a series of top performances in the post-season, taking 6th at ACCs and placing 14th at NCAAs with a new lifetime best of 1:40.67. McFadden and Zuchowski both turned in strong swims at ACCs as well, placing 10th and 17th, respectively, but neither of them were under 1:42 at any point last season and would not have made it to the top 16 at NCAAs.
Rafael Gu looks like he could be on the verge of qualifying for the NCAA final in the 100 fly, with a best time that would have placed 18th last season, but he will need to find a little more consistency. Last year’s season-best came back in November, when Gu swam a 45.02 at the SMU Invitational; his next best performance was a 45.32 at ACCs, and he fell off all the way to 45.75 at NCAAs to finish 35th.
After posting a best time of 46.72 at ACCs last season, Ethan Harrington is poised to rank second on the team in the 100 fly, but he would need to see a big drop this season to have a shot at making the NCAA final.
IM: ★
The IM events look like they will be one of Stanford’s weakest disciplines this season, as for now, they do not have any swimmers projected to score at NCAAs with the roster’s current times. Despite that, there is always room for surprises and for the rankings to get shaken up depending on how athletes perform throughout the season and on the day.
Holmes is set to be the Cardinal’s top-ranked competitor in both IM races. He threw down lifetime best times in both the 200 IM (1:42.65) and 400 IM (3:41.59) at the ACC Championships in February but went on to add time in both events at NCAAs, finishing 37th and 23rd, respectively. Holmes’ top times would have landed him a fair bit higher up the ladder; his lifetime best in the 200 would have placed 27th, and his lifetime best in the 400 would have been 21st.
Zuchowski also brings some potential to score in the 400 IM. He ended up not racing the event at NCAAs last season, but his best time of 3:42.22 from ACCs would have placed 22nd. Holmes and Zuchowski were the top Stanford swimmers in the 400 IM last season, both setting new personal bests, putting them in a good position to maintain that mantle this season.
Diving: ★★★
Last year’s graduating seniors left some big shoes to fill in the diving discipline, with Jack Ryan having been a significant contributor throughout the season, but with two new divers on the roster this season, Stanford should still have a solid diving group.
Misha Andriyuk returns as one of the Cardinal’s top divers and a key competitor from last season’s conference championships and NCAA Championship. Andriyuk was the runner-up on the 10-meter at ACCs and went on to place 8th at NCAAs in the same event. The 10-meter is Andriyuk’s strongest diving discipline, as he also competed on the 1-meter at NCAAs but finished 41st.
The Cardinal welcomes two freshmen divers this season: Grant Schneider and Gunnar Grubbs, both from California. Grubbs looks like he may be the most versatile, competing in 1-meter, 3-meter and platform diving. He became the 2025 California high school state champion in the 1-meter, and he placed 5th in the 3-meter at the 2023 Junior Pan Am Championships. Before coming to Stanford this season, Grubbs trained with the Stanford Diving Club, where he was coached by Oleg Andriyuk.
Schneider, meanwhile, was the 2024 California high school state champion on the 1-meter, having beat out Grubbs for the top spot. He has also competed in platform diving and took 3rd at the 2023 U.S. Junior Nationals in the synchronized platform event.
While it is hard to predict exactly how Grubbs and Schneider will stack up amongst the rest of the ACC and the NCAA, they certainly look like they will be strong contributors for Stanford as they continue to build on their diving skills.
Relays: ★★
Note that the grading system doesn’t align perfectly for relays as double points.
Relay grading system:
5 star (★★★★★) – 31+ points per relay event 4 star (★★★★) – 22-30 relay points per event 3 star (★★★) – 12-21 relay points per event 2 star (★★) – 5-11 relay points per event 1 star (★) – 0-4 relay points per eventThe loss of several of their top swimmers is sure to hit Stanford hard in the relays; Minakov raced on all five NCAA relays last season, Polonsky raced on three, Sequeira raced on two, and Avery Voss raced on one. The Stanford men racked up 88 points from the relays alone last season, but they will be hard-pressed to score as high this year with bigger gaps to fill.
Stanford’s best relay finish last year came from the 800 free relay team of Minakov, McFadden, Polonsky and Dupont, who placed 5th overall and brought home 28 points. Replacing Minakov and Polonsky on that relay will be no easy feat, especially as everyone on that relay was 1:32 or better at NCAAs, but it will likely see Jason Zhao step in with his best time of 1:33.51. The next fastest would be Jonathan Tan, who set a best time of 1:35.05 back in November.
This could be a big year for Tan when it comes to the relays. He was already on the 200 free relay last year and is also the most likely candidate to replace Minakov on the 400 free relay thanks to his lifetime best 42.64 and top relay split of 42.49.
With Voss and Minakov gone, filling in the remaining two spots on the 200 free relay could be Harrington and Dupont. Harrington’s best time of 19.39 is not far off of Minakov’s NCAA leadoff split of 19.32, while Dupont is the only other Stanford man with a time under 19.5. Dupont was on three relays last year, so this would bring his count up to four in addition to his likely individual races in the 100 and 200 free.
The medley relays will take the biggest hit, as both the 200 and 400 lost Minakov, Sequeira and Polonsky and each of the stroke disciplines are looking a little weaker this season. Harland had the second-fastest 50 back relay split last season, swimming 21.35 against USC, and is the most likely candidate for the 200 medley relay, while Zuchowski will likely lead-off the 400 medley relay. Fan, the Cardinal’s top returning breaststroker, will probably fill Polonsky’s breaststroke leg on both relays, while the butterfly legs will be down to Gu and Harrington. Gu has the faster time in both the 50 and 100 fly, but he already raced the free leg on the 200 medley last season so he could remain in that position while Harrington does fly. The other option for that relay would be for Gu to race the fly leg while Dupont anchors in free, which could produce a faster overall time.
Total Stars: 16/40
2025-2026 Outlook
Stanford is hovering on a bit of a precipice as the Cardinal swimmers gear up for this season. The program has consistently been one of the top teams in the NCAA, finishing in the top 10 at the Division I Championships for the past four years and placed 8th the last three years in a row, but the loss of its top three scoring competitors from last season’s NCAAs amongst other powerhouses has put the team’s prospects for this year up in the air.
Although the Cardinal welcomes back a number of top talents, such as Henry McFadden, Andres Dupont and Rafael Gu, it will be hard to close the gaps left behind by Ron Polonsky, Andrei Minakov and Aaron Sequeira. And while Stanford’s new class of freshmen swimmers boasts several contenders with strong potential, there again does not seem to be anyone with the times to match the alumni’s performances, at least right now.
Stanford lost a handful of key swimmers with large amounts of depth, but the program’s current roster features a wide range of strong competitors who, if they can develop their talent in just one or two events this season, could help land more Stanford swimmers in the top 16 at NCAAs to pick up some extra points across the board.
It seems unlikely that Stanford will be able to hold onto their #8 ranking, given the current scoring projections, but they could still land in the top 10 if everyone is on top of their game in the postseason.
Men’s College Preview Index:
Rank (2024) Team Sprint Free Distance Free Backstroke Breaststroke Butterfly IM Diving Relays Total Stars 1 Texas Longhorns 2 California Golden Bears 3 Indiana Hoosiers 4 Florida Gators 5 Tennessee Volunteers 6 Arizona State Sun Devils 7 Georgia Bulldogs 8 Stanford Cardinal ★★ ★★ ½ ★★ ★★ ★ ½ ★ ★★★ ★★ 16/40 9 NC State Wolfpack ★★ ½ ★★ ★★★½ ★★ ★★★★ ★★★ N/A ★★★★ 21/40 10 Virginia Tech Hokies ★★ ★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ 11/40 11 Michigan Wolverines ★★★½ ★★½ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★ ★★★★ 23/40 12 Texas A&M Aggies ★★★ ★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★★★ ★★★ 15/40Read the full story on SwimSwam: 2026 College Swimming Previews: #8 Stanford Men Aim to Cling to Top 10 Finish After Key Losses
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