The firm argues that Lagarde should at least acknowledge the US-EU trade deal but warn that risks to macro trends have risen since earlier this summer. BofA believes that the press conference could be viewed as slightly more dovish, though Lagarde is set to emphasise on flexibility again while avoiding to pre-commit to any further moves still.
In terms of FX reactions, they see a slightly negative risk for the euro from tomorrow's meeting decision. Of note, BofA highlights that they are leaning bearish on the euro against the pound and aussie. But overall, they anticipate that this week's meeting will be very limited in terms of FX impact.
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