New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead in the race among the 4-person field, though the lead narrows in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, according to a new survey.
The New York Times/Siena University poll, released Tuesday, shows Mamdani leading with 46 percent, more than 20 points over his next closest competitor, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), with 24 percent. Republican Curtis Sliwa comes in third with 15 percent, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams follows with 9 percent.
Cuomo mounted an independent bid for mayor after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, a member of the New York State Assembly, in an upset. Adams chose to forego the primary entirely and run an independent campaign for reelection.
The latest poll showed 5 percent said they were unsure or didn’t say who they’d support.
The survey was taken last week as speculation built that Adams, who is considered a longshot for winning a second term, would drop out and potentially take a role in the Trump administration. Multiple reports indicated that those in President Trump’s orbit discussed giving both Adams and Sliwa roles in the administration to push them to drop out of the race and allow Cuomo to face Mamdani head-to-head.
But despite the speculation, Sliwa ruled out accepting any role under Trump almost immediately, while Adams declared on Friday that he would continue his campaign. The sitting mayor also expressed optimism about outperforming expectations and noted that most polling missed Mamdani’s defeat of Cuomo in the Democratic primary.
Amid some accusations from Mamdani against Cuomo that he's Trump's preferred candidate, the former governor rejected the notion that he needs assistance and that the president truly wants Mamdani to win.
If the race were to narrow, the poll shows that Mamdani would still lead but by a more modest margin. The closest matchup is between the state lawmaker and Cuomo, the latter of whom has consistently placed second in polling.
Mamdani leads Cuomo by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent saying they wouldn’t vote and 4 percent saying they were unsure, according to the survey results. In a matchup just with Adams, the Democratic nominee leads by almost the same margin as the four-person race. He’s ahead by 19 points, 55 percent to 36 percent.
Cuomo has argued that he’s the most electable of Mamdani’s opponents and the other candidates should consider yielding to him as the best chance to stop the Democratic socialist. Sliwa and Adams have maintained that they won’t drop out, raising concerns from Mamdani's opponents that the vote could be split among them, thus leading the State Assembly member to victory.
The survey shows that Mamdani has a significant advantage in likeability. He was viewed very or somewhat favorably by 52 percent of respondents and very or somewhat unfavorably by 39 percent.
By contrast, Cuomo’s net favorability is underwater by more than 20 points and Adams's by almost 40 points. Sliwa is underwater by almost 20 points as well, the poll found.
The numbers do show a potential path forward for Mamdani critics if they can consolidate behind one candidate, likely Cuomo, but a significant obstacle if the race remains static with less than two months before Election Day.
The Times/Siena poll was conducted from Sept. 2-6 among 1,284 likely New York City voters. The margin of error was 3.6 percentage points.
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