The resignation of Angela Rayner is such a moment. Sir Keir Starmer would never have chosen to lose such a prominent minister, or to do so in such embarrassing circumstances.
The first opportunity was in the reshuffle – either by letting go ministers who weren’t up to snuff, or taking the chance to bolster the top table. Done well, with a clear strategy and a message to land with the electorate, it offered hope of a reset.
Having flunked that initial chance to make lemonade out of lemons, there remain other potential benefits that the Government could yet bank.
The Employment Rights Bill was her baby, and she defended its measures energetically against concerns about its economic impact put forward by colleagues from the Treasury, among others. Serious worries among employers were also effectively steamrolled by the political clout and determination of the former deputy prime minister.
There’s good reason to believe that this assessment is overly positive, too. The report used assumptions about productivity growth and falling unemployment which have already proved to be too optimistic, and it concluded that the impact on unemployment would be “small or negligible”.
It’s worth noting that even in the Panglossian impact assessment, the authors were forced to concede that the workers at most risk of losing their jobs as a result of the bill would be low-paid, young and disabled. So while it seems likely they are underestimating the scale of that impact, we do at least know who would suffer from it the most.
I wrote for this newspaper a month ago that the downsides of the Employment Rights Bill were so large, so clear and so damaging to both the economy and the Government’s political mission that it should be ditched – but “while the country cannot afford the Employment Rights Bill, a troubled government with backbench problems cannot afford to anger Angela Rayner”.
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This is an extremely rare lever available to Rachel Reeves to give the economy – and business confidence – a concrete boost. The Office for Budget Responsibility might be persuaded to upgrade its economic forecasts in return, too, creating more fiscal headroom for the Chancellor with which she could limit other painful measures.
Where before it faced opposition from a potential future prime minister with the wind in her sails, now it has a window of opportunity to act before it’s too late.
Shelve it pending better growth, kick it into the long grass under cover of the reshuffle, accidentally mis-file it on the wrong shelf, whatever – the Chancellor has an opportunity to improve the numbers which plague her every waking moment, and she should grasp it.
Mark Wallace is chief executive of Total Politics Group
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