They say the “smoke signals” from the Government are that it shows “no inclination” to slash long term ticket prices despite its plans to return the railways to public control.
The news comes in the same week that it was revealed that rail fares for many commuters in Scotland would be almost halved.
‘Most expensive rail fares in Europe’
But campaigners and industry insiders told The i Paper this week there is a growing expectation that the Department for Transport will use a formula of adding one per cent to the RPI figure (known as “RPI+1”) for July to calculate the yearly rise.
By contrast, fuel duty for motorists has remained frozen since 2011, with a temporary five per cent cut introduced in 2022 and carried over since.
“Unfortunately, there’s really not an inclination to address this recurring annual rise which is in such stark contrast to the freeze on fuel duty.”
“It’s absolutely sending the wrong message. It’s the un-green way to go. It’s increasing congestion and pollution and it’s absolutely the opposite of what the Government should be doing.”
However, critics point out that RPI remains higher than the widely-used CPI measure of inflation and would still result in swingeing fare rises.
The unpalatable prospect of an inflation-busting rise for English rail users comes ahead of Tube strikes in London next week and in the same week that commuters in Scotland were handed a dramatic reduction in travel costs after the Holyrood government announced it was abolishing peak train fares. The move means rush-hour fares will fall by at least 20 per cent, and nearly half between Glasgow and Edinburgh, at a cost of up to £45m a year.
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Mr Williamson said: “If that disparity grows significantly, people will start to notice. We already have a ridiculously complex and impenetrable fares system. At some point people will look at the cost of rail travel and its complexity and ask themselves if it is worth it, with all the implications that has for congestion and the environment.”
Ministers have made the simplification of the labyrinthine ticketing system a priority. This week a trial was announced in the East Midlands of a new system pay-as-you-go ticketing system which will use GPS satellite technology to track travellers’ journeys and charge the best fare at the end of the day.
‘Savings will just be raked back in by Treasury’
They pointed to this summer’s comprehensive spending review which suggested that ministers would be looking to reduce the state subsidy for running the railways – currently stood at £12.5bn per annum – rather than passing on savings to travellers.
The Campaign for Better Transport, which is seeking a freeze on rail fares, pointed to evidence that price is the most important factor for people in deciding whether or not to use the railways. The most recent monthly survey of passenger views conducted by watchdog Transport Focus found that while overall satisfaction with the railway stands at 84 per cent, the percentage of those agreeing it represents value for money stood at 58 per cent.
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Alongside its railway renationalisation project, the Government is dealing with slower growth in income from fares following a significant shift in the way passengers are using trains since the Covid-19 outbreak.
One rail executive said: “A lot of people think GBR is badly needed. But it is clear the Treasury does not want to be writing bigger cheques for the railways. In those circumstances, there is only one way to increase income and it is passengers who will continue to pay the bills.”
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “No decisions have been made on next year’s rail fares but our aim is that prices balance affordability for both passengers and taxpayers.”
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