The 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup pool stage comes to a climax this weekend, and we preview the big clashes that will decide who tops each group.
Seven of the eight quarter-final spots for the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup are confirmed. The exception comes in Pool A where the USA will battle it out indirectly with Australia for the last safe passage to the knockout stage. Ahead of the final games in the pool stage, we analyse the key talking points across every tie.
Pool A
England vs Australia
According to the Opta supercomputer, Australia had a 76% chance of beating the USA in Round 2. However, a late missed conversion meant they had to settle for a draw.
That has opened the trap door for the Wallaroos and if the USA post a big win against Samoa then the Aussies will definitely begin to feel the nerves if England start racking up the points.
England have won all seven previous clashes with Australia and will be heavy favourites in this one.
But the Wallaroos have plenty of game-changers in their squad who could help rattle the hosts. None more so than Caitlyn Halse. The 18-year-old has been involved in more tries (7: 4 scored, 3 assisted) and line breaks (11: 4 made, 7 assisted) than anyone else at this Rugby World Cup.
Australia’s ball-carrying has been powerful so far, with them ranking first for gainline success rate (78%). The problem for them though, is that England rank second (76%).
A real strength for the Red Roses is that when they meet contact they don’t stop moving forward. Only a rampant South Africa (663m) have made more ‘in-contact’ metres than England (464m) so far. That’s an area of the game Australia have not performed well in, ranking second worst with just 223 metres.
Australia would love to cause a shock and beat the hosts in this match in Brighton, a venue that is no stranger to a Rugby World Cup giant-killing. But in reality, their main aim will be damage limitation to ensure they stay ahead of the USA and set up a likely quarter-final with Canada.
For England they will just want iron out any remaining performance issues and keep their momentum going ahead of the knockout stage, avoiding any injuries along the way.
USA vs Samoa
Samoa have conceded more points than any other side in this Rugby World Cup (165) and are the only side yet to score a try. But with the USA chasing tries to overturn their negative points difference to Australia, that may add the pressure that opens the door for Samoa to challenge.
Only Canada (2.3s) and New Zealand (2.6s) have recorded a quicker average attacking ruck speed than Samoa (2.8s) at this World Cup, so the USA will need to be on their guard when without the ball.
With the ball, the Eagles have carried strongly, committing 2+ defenders from 65% of their carries – only New Zealand (67%) have a higher rate. However, they’ve not been able to fully exploit this. In fact, it’s actually inhibited their gainline success rate, which sits at 58%, the third-lowest rate in the competition.
These sides will have different goals, but having only lost by 10 points when the sides last met (36-26, WXV2 2023), Samoa will be going all out to ruffle a few Eagle feathers in this one.
Pool B
Canada vs Scotland
The likely prize of winning this match is the relief of not facing England in the quarter-finals. Scotland have impressed so far, although having lost their last six meetings with Canada they will know they are up against it to spring a surprise here.
Scotland have been one of the most physical teams at this Rugby World Cup: 59% of their carries have been dominant, the best rate of any side.
Individually, Evie Gallagher has been one of the hardest workers in the tournament. The Bristol Bears back-row has hit the most defensive rucks of any player (29), with only Australia’s Piper Duck (49) making more tackles than her (47). As a case in point, Gallagher made 35 tackles against Fiji – the most by any player in a game this year.
If you’re looking for attacking players to keep an eye on then Alysha Corrigan and Francesca McGhie are high up the list. Corrigan has made the joint-most line breaks (8, tied with Jess Breach) of anyone so far, while McGhie ranks third for carry metres (297), third for defenders beaten (13) and fifth for breaks (6).
Wales vs Fiji
This is last chance saloon for Wales at any sort of redemption from this World Cup campaign. A chastening defeat to Scotland in Round 1 effectively ended their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages. They were always going to be up against it versus Canada but an impressive opening 10 minutes gave them hope… but it’s the hope that kills you.
Wales have managed just 0.5 points per 22m entry so far, with only Samoa having a lower rate. Their current record of 15 entries but just one try and one penalty goal will be a huge disappointment. Their attacking ruck speed of 4.1s is the second slowest of any side at this Rugby World Cup and explains to some extent why Wales have struggled to convert the opportunities they’ve had, allowing defences too long to regather.
If Wales are to finish on a high they will need to get past an aggressive Fiji defence. Fiji have made the third fewest tackles (216) after two rounds, but despite this they’ve made the joint-third most dominant tackles (28, level with New Zealand).
This will be the first meeting between these two teams, so research and analysis will be key to work out how to exploit weaknesses in their opponents’ gameplan.
Both sides will be desperate to end the tournament on a high, but you feel for Wales there is no alternative to winning this. A defeat could well spell wholesale changes to their entire set-up.
Pool C
Ireland vs New Zealand
This showdown in Brighton is potentially the most intriguing match of the entire pool stage. Ireland have won two of their three previous encounters with the Black Ferns, including a 29-27 victory in their last meeting at WXV1 2024.
They’ve also enjoyed victory against them in a Rugby World Cup before, dumping them out of the 2014 edition of the tournament with a 17-14 win.
All this will just add fuel to an already raging fire inside the New Zealand side as they bid for a seventh World Cup title.
Neither of these sides have faced a stern test in the tournament so far, and as such, New Zealand sit top of plenty of attacking metrics. They have recorded more carry metres (2811), line breaks (40) and defenders beaten (103) than any side.
103 – The @BlackFerns have recorded more carry metres (2811), passes (471), line breaks (40) and defenders beaten (103) than any other team at @rugbyworldcup 2025. Steamroller. pic.twitter.com/A3XHkpxZF3
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) September 4, 2025Ireland, meanwhile, have built a platform from their set-piece and been more pragmatic than flamboyant. They are one of just three teams with a success rate of 90% or better at both the scrum (100%) and lineout (91%) at this year’s Rugby World Cup, alongside Canada and Australia.
At the breakdown we will see a really intriguing clash of forces. Only Canada (2.3s) have recorded a quicker average attacking ruck speed than New Zealand (2.6s) after two rounds, although Ireland have slowed down the opposition ruck more than any other team, their opponents taking 3.9 seconds on average to complete each ruck.
Individually the standout player from these two squads and potentially of all the players on show at Rugby World Cup 2025 is Jorja Miller. The 7s superstar has been unstoppable so far, beating 17 defenders, more than any other player, as well as making the most carry metres (263) and line breaks of any forward this year (7).
Spain vs Japan
Pride is at stake in this clash as both sides hunt a victory that would send them home from this World Cup with a smile on their faces, making all the hard work and effort in getting here worthwhile.
Japan recorded two victories over Spain in July earlier this so will be the more confident, although judging from their respective performances in this pool so far this game could go either way.
They have both scored and conceded almost identical points, with Spain’s points difference of -62 marginally superior to Japan’s -71.
Pool D
France vs South Africa
South Africa have been the surprise package of the Rugby World Cup so far, blasting Brazil aside in Round 1 before shocking Italy to secure a historic quarter-final berth.
This match against France will be another test of how good they are and if they can challenge one of the best in the world.
The Boks have never beaten France before (D1, L5) with their last meeting coming back in 2022 at the World Cup when Les Bleues won 40-5 at Eden Park. If South Africa win this match they will join England (twice) as the only side to ever win a pool game against France, but none of that history is likely to faze a jubilant Springboks outfit.
South Africa have enjoyed more possession than any other team at this year’s Rugby World Cup (61%), while only France (71%) have recorded more territory (67%). The Boks’ carrying has also been a highlight of their game. They have made the most carries of any team (347) gaining 649 metres-in-contact in the process – no other team has made 500+ metres-in-contact.
This contact zone and how both teams either power through or ship the ball on will be a key factor in how the result goes.
France have made 39 successful offloads so far, more than any other team, and have assisted four tries via offloads – twice as many as any other nation.
South Africa have the best offload success rate though, finding a teammate from 90% of their attempted offloads (19/21).
Expect passion and fireworks in this one not least because the loser could well find themselves up against New Zealand in the quarter-finals.
Italy vs Brazil
Italy, along with Wales, have probably endured one of the most disappointing campaigns at this year’s Rugby World Cup. They failed to score a point in defeat against France and then were overpowered by South Africa. That’s left the Italians dumped out of the tournament and with nothing more than pride to play for against Brazil.
Pride is something Brazil have shown heaps of so far but it hasn’t helped them on the scoreboard, conceding 150 points and scoring just 11 in their opening two fixtures.
This will be the first time the two sides have met. In fact it will be the first time Le Azzurre have faced any side from South America.
Brazil have already given their full squad a run out. They’ve used 32 players so far at this year’s Rugby World Cup – no team has used more (level with New Zealand and France).
Italy, conversely, have used the joint-fewest players (25, level with South Africa and Japan). Maybe this last game will allow the other players to show the impact they could have made had they been given the chance earlier.
You can do your own analysis on all of the players at this year’s tournament using our Rugby World Cup 2025 Stats Hub.
Women’s Rugby World Cup 2025: Round 3 Preview Opta Analyst.
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