We look ahead to Sunday’s Old Firm derby at Ibrox with our Rangers vs Celtic prediction and preview. Can the hosts find their first win in the Scottish Premiership under Russell Martin?
Rangers vs Celtic: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Celtic slight favourites for this one, with the Hoops beating Rangers in 38.6% of pre-match simulations. Rangers have drawn all three of their league games this season. They have only failed to win each of their opening four matches of a league campaign three times previously. If Celtic win to nil, it will be only the fourth time they have won their first four league games of a season without conceding.It’s the first Old Firm derby of the 2025-26 season, which should be a time for excitement for all concerned.
However, both Rangers and Celtic come into Sunday’s fixture at Ibrox off the back of a tremendously disappointing week in Europe.
Celtic suffered a shock defeat Kazakh side Kairat Almaty on penalties in the UEFA Champions League final qualifying round on Tuesday, eliminated by a team who sit below Luton Town in the Opta Power Rankings.
Rangers fans may have enjoyed a little schadenfreude for 24 hours, but then they saw their side walloped 6-0 by Club Brugge in the same round on Wednesday, going 5-0 down before half-time and ultimately losing 9-1 on aggregate to the Belgians. It was their heaviest margin of defeat away from home across all competitions since October 1963, when they lost 6-0 to Real Madrid in the European Cup.
Celtic are certainly the happier of the two domestically, already boasting a hefty cushion over their rivals. Just three games in and Brendan Rodgers’ side sit top of the table on maximum points, six ahead of Rangers. They are also yet to concede, and could win each of their opening four matches of a league campaign to nil for the fourth time, after 1906-07, 2010-11, and 2024-25.
Conversely, Rangers are yet to win in the league this season. Russell Martin has seen his new team draw all three of their Scottish Premiership games; on only three occasions have Rangers ever failed to win each of their opening four matches of a league campaign, doing so in 1964-65, 1978-79, and 1983-84. On all three instances, this included a defeat to Celtic, so the omens aren’t great.
Drawing is not good enough for a club like Rangers, but they have struggled to do anything else in recent times. They have drawn seven of their last nine league games (W2), including each of their last four. Only in September 1976, May 1984, and March 2015 have the Gers ever drawn five successive league games. This could also be the first time since December 2005 that they have gone five top-flight matches in a row without winning.
Rangers have drawn 1-1 with Motherwell, Dundee and St. Mirren, so the pressure is already on former Southampton boss Martin. Only St. Mirren (1) and Aberdeen (0) have scored fewer non-penalty goals in the Scottish Premiership this season than Rangers (2), even though they have the fourth-highest non-penalty expected goals total in the league (3.6).
Martin would go a long way to mending fences with disgruntled fans if he can mastermind a derby win here, though. Only two of the last 12 Rangers managers to have faced Celtic have won their first league Old Firm derby (D4 L6), Ally McCoist in September 2011 (4-2) and Barry Ferguson in March last season (3-2).
Celtic’s main dangerman could be Benjamin Nygren, who has made an excellent start to life in Scotland. The Swedish winger has the most goal involvements of any player in the Scottish Premiership this season (4), scoring (3) or assisting (1) 67% of Celtic’s league goals in 2025-26. Nygren also leads all players in the competition for chances created (12) and expected assists (1.64), while he is second for both shots attempted (10) and non-penalty expected goals (1.58).
Rangers have scored just three league goals this season, split between James Tavernier (2) and Findlay Curtis (1), despite those two only having one start between them in the league in 2025-26.
They will hope that the imminent signing of former Aberdeen striker Bojan Miovski from Girona will help address their issues in attack, but this game will come too early for the North Macedonia international.
Celtic could be making a big striker signing of their own in the last few days of the transfer window, with Anderlecht’s Kasper Dolberg being linked, but Adam Idah is unlikely to feature at Ibrox as he is reportedly close to joining Swansea City.
In terms of wider team news, Kieran Dowell (foot) is out for Rangers after missing the midweek loss in Brugge, while Celtic will be without Alistair Johnston (hamstring). Rodgers could hand a debut to new signing Michel-Ange Balikwisha, who arrived from Royal Antwerp earlier this week.
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Things might not be looking rosy for Rangers at the moment, but they have a good recent record in the derby. They are unbeaten in three league meetings with Celtic, winning two (D1), more than their previous 12 prior to that (W1 D3 L8).
Celtic have won just twice in their last 11 visits to Ibrox in all competitions (D3 L6), with their last victory coming in September 2023 (1-0).
However, the Hoops have won the first league Old Firm derby of a season in seven of the last nine campaigns, so will be confident of further ruining the mood of their rivals here.
Rangers vs Celtic Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has made Celtic slight favourites to win the first Old Firm derby of the season.
The defending Scottish Premiership champions won 38.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Rangers coming out on top in 35.4%. The draw occurred in the remaining 26% of sims.
Rangers vs Celtic Predicted Lineups
Rangers: Jack Butland, James Tavernier, Nasser Djiga, Harry Souttar, Max Aarons, Nicolas Raskin, Joe Rothwell, Lyall Cameron, Djeidi Gassama, Oliver Antman, Danilo.
Head Coach: Russell Martin
Celtic: Kasper Schmeichel, Anthony Ralston, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Liam Scales, Kieran Tierney, Callum McGregor, Benjamin Nygren, Reo Hatate, James Forrest, Yang Hyun-Jun, Daizen Maeda.
Head Coach: Brendan Rodgers
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Rangers vs Celtic Prediction: Can Russell Martin’s Men Stop the Rot in Season’s First Old Firm Derby? Opta Analyst.
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