Budget ‘kite flying’ is damaging growth, new MPs warn Reeves ...Middle East

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MPs in the 2024 cohort fear a repeat of last year when gloomy commentary from ministers on the state of the public finances was blamed for stalling the economy.

It follows a series of leaks about possible tax rises which could feature in the Budget, with the introduction of national insurance on landlords’ rental income the latest suggestion.

Predictions about the size of the black hole differ, with some analysts forecasting a gap of £20bn but others saying it could be larger than £40bn.

In recent weeks there has been a series of apparent leaks about possible taxes changes which the Chancellor could resort to, including an overhaul of stamp duty and council tax, charging capital gains tax on high-value primary residences and applying national insurance to rental income.

A Labour MP said: “The key thing in the next few months is that we don’t end up in a cycle of talking about tax rises [and] confidence in the economy weakens. We need to be positive and optimistic and on the front foot.”

Another MP said the timing of recent trails was “weird” and “premature” because of the “distortive effect” on the property market.

“But I’m worried about some of the lead times. If you are doing any tax stuff, there is an issue that if you announce some of these changes it can gum up the housing market.

“You’ve got to be so careful.”

In the final half of 2024 the economy barely grew, and Starmer later said the speech had been a mistake because it “squeezed the hope out”.

“Keir did that speech in the rose garden, saying the sky was falling on our heads. That tanked confidence. It was like two months out from the Budget itself. We’re about the same point now. It does feel quite early to be chucking so many briefings out there.”

A Labour backbencher said the tax speculation was “exasperating”. They said that while it happened “every year to all governments”, it added a “degree of uncertainty” that businesses could “do without”.

Asked whether Treasury colleagues had been leaking to the press, he said: “I can’t comment on that.”

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The Treasury insists it does not comment on speculation about future changes to tax policy.

In a recent editorial for The Guardian, Reeves said: “The months and weeks before any budget are filled with people speculating about – or claiming to know – what tax and spend decisions I will take or what the Office for Budget Responsibility will conclude. “This budget is no different – I get that. I will set out the decisions I take in a responsible manner.”

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