Most elite running backs were great values in fantasy football in 2024. Which ones will retain that value this season?
Running backs had a moment in fantasy football in 2024.
Saquon Barkley broke the record for most rushing yards in a single season, including the playoffs. Yet, he wasn’t even the top scorer in full PPR scoring because Jahmyr Gibbs also had a sensational campaign.
For the most part (looking at you, Christian McCaffrey), running backs taken in the first round stayed surprisingly healthy and most returned great value.
While it’s entirely too early to suggest this trend is here to stay, it’s possible that running backs get pushed up draft boards by fantasy managers who remember their success last year.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had at the position. From the elite at the position to the last spot on your roster, there are running backs who are going much lower than they should in most drafts.
The Elite RBs
This may seem like an obvious statement, but it bears repeating: make sure to check whether your league is standard, half-PPR, or full-PPR scoring while planning for the draft.
It’s important to do that every year for your rankings at all the non-quarterback positions, but it’s especially important for running back this year.
The top nine in our projections are the same running backs in standard and PPR, but in a drastically different order. Derrick Henry is first in standard scoring, but eighth in PPR. De’Von Achane is first in PPR but eighth in standard.
In casual leagues, many fantasy managers don’t arrange their rankings much depending on the format. So it should be an advantage for those who do. It’s important not to overdo it, of course, but with the glut of talent at the top, this is the year to make some distinctions based on format.
The two running backs who project in the top three regardless of format are the ones going near the top of almost every draft: Barkly and Bijan Robinson. They both had tremendous seasons, and both are still elite talents in great situations.
There is some uncertainty surrounding Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons. He looked good last year in limited playing time, but an injury or underperformance could cause Robinson’s value to tumble a bit. Also, Penix loves to throw the ball downfield, which didn’t leave Robinson with as many targets as he had previously with Kirk Cousins.
But Robinson made up for it in those starts with Penix by scoring two touchdowns in each of them and having more success on the ground. He has the floor and upside necessary to be in the conversation for the first overall pick.
Barkley is a bit more worrisome, as he’s coming off a season in which he had a massive workload. Fantasy managers have been keenly aware of how a ton of carries can negatively affect a running back the following year since Aaron Schatz came up with “the curse of 370” almost two decades ago.
Also, the Eagles were leading by a lot in most games last year. Even if they’re an elite team again, it’s unlikely they’ll be as dominant, which will lead to more passing situations. And Jalen Hurts is there to siphon some tush-push scores as well.
Ultimately, though, Barkley is an elite talent with a really strong offensive line and no real competition for touches. We’ve seen players obliterate age curves lately (Derrick Henry, anyone?), so maybe Barkley can stay healthy despite his workload in 2024. If he’s on the field, it’s hard to imagine a week when he isn’t ranked among the top five running backs.
It’s fair to worry about the workload and take Robinson and Ja’Marr Chase over Barkley at the top of drafts. Maybe one other running back or wide receiver, depending on the format? Passing on him after that, though? There’s arguably more risk in not taking him because of his ceiling.
Henry’s downside argument is once again his age. He could certainly fall off, but he showed no signs of doing so last year when he led all running backs in yards per carry. He needs to be considered in the top tier of running backs in standard leagues and in the five-to-10 range among running backs in full PPR.
If you’re worried about the risk of Barkley or Henry, then De’Von Achane is not the player for you. He already has a foot injury (although the team expects him to be ready for Week 1) and had significant injuries in college and his rookie season. His production also fell off a cliff when Tua Tagovailoa went down last year, so fantasy managers will have to worry about injuries to either player.
In PPR formats, though, the upside is especially tantalizing. If you only care about winning a championship, Achane’s a value pick in that format.
His downside risk pushes him behind Robinson, Barkley and Gibbs, but he should be considered in the next group of running backs and as a top-10 option in standard scoring.
If you’re risk-averse, though, Achane needs to be avoided.
Bucky Irving is a Bargain
Perhaps fantasy managers are still anchoring to Irving’s fourth-round draft selection, but he’s still going lower than he should in drafts after a tremendous rookie season.
We’ve highlighted great values at running back in our yays and nays and sleepers, but Irving is the biggest value at his part of the draft, particularly in standard leagues. Irving is being selected somewhere in the mid-to-late second round in most formats, according to Fantasy Pros and in the RB8-to-RB10 range.
But our projections have him as the RB4 in standard leagues and RB6 in PPR. That means you could get an above-average starter in the back half of the second round of a 12-team draft. If Irving lasts until there, he’s a superb value.
Irving really took off down the stretch last season. From Week 11 on, if you remove his game against the Las Vegas Raiders in which he left after four carries with an injury, Irving averaged 100.0 yards per game and had five rushing touchdowns. During that stretch, he was second in the league in yards per carry.
Tristan Wirfs’ injury is a concern as he’s a star offensive lineman who boosts all facets of the offense. However, he wasn’t placed on IR to start the season, so he should be back relatively soon. If Wirfs is healthy, Irving is in a great spot to build on his production from his debut.
And if he’s able to find the end zone more, Irving could be the best RB value in 2025.
The Deep Sleeper
For a late-round pick to hit as truly league-altering, situations have to change. So it would make sense to target a situation in which the lead back is valuable but risky, and the backup could see a huge boost in value with an injury.
We’ve already discussed the risks of Achane this year, so his backup should probably be drafted in all formats. Especially when that backup is a rookie who has impressed enough to usurp the backup role from a veteran.
Jaylen Wright looked like the potential handcuff to Achane early in the preseason, but appears to have been passed by Ollie Gordon, who has impressed in camp. The Oklahoma State product was selected in the sixth round, but it was a historically good running back class.
Our projections have Gordon as RB38 and he’s going as RB56. He could already have standalone value in deeper leagues if he gets the goal line work for the Miami Dolphins. But if Achane’s foot injury flares up or another injury comes up and Gordon runs well in a new opportunity, he could be a weekly starting caliber player.
That is worth a dart throw in the last couple of rounds.
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Fantasy Football RB Rankings 2025: Everything to Know About the Stars and Sleepers in the Backfield Opta Analyst.
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