Trump was talking then about the election’s most important issue: post-pandemic inflation, for which voters blamed Harris’s boss, President Joe Biden. In May of last year, a clear majority—including 49 percent of Democrats—wrongly believed the country was already in a recession when Trump delivered that speech. Americans hated the economy and wanted a change. That is, more or less, the story of how Trump won the 2024 election (though it certainly helped that Trump spent the majority of the campaign running against an 81-year-old who wasn’t up to the challenge, to put it mildly).
To be fair, there has been a lot to cover since Trump took office: the gutting of the federal government, the deportation of law-abiding immigrants to foreign gulags, the militarization of L.A. and now D.C., the weaponization of the Department of Justice, airstrikes on Iran, and so much more. But Trump has also done everything possible to push the country toward recession.
And surely most Americans don’t even care how much money the U.S. raises from tariffs unless it somehow improves their own finances, which of course it does not. The Tax Foundation, no one’s idea of a left-wing shop, says that Trump’s tariffs “amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,304 in 2025 and $1,588 in 2026.” The tariffs also will hurt the economy overall, causing a nearly 1 percent decrease in the GDP over the next decade, the organization estimates.
Trump’s war on the Fed is just as reckless and unconstitutional as his tariffs, but it does make a bit more economic sense. The president just signed a massive corporate tax cut into law and thinks—with reason—that lower interest rates will boost the economy and lift his presidency. What Trump doesn’t seem to understand or care about is that launching a war with the Federal Reserve could just as easily do the opposite. Crushing the body’s independence could cause the stock market to crash and the dollar, which has been steadily falling since inauguration, to collapse. Those lower interest rates could juice inflation that has been ticking upward.
It’s hard to overstate just how dire the situation is. The economy that Trump inherited was the envy of the developed world. For all of its problems—such as lingering high prices and longstanding inequality—Biden and his advisors navigated post-pandemic inflation better than almost anyone, thanks to the administration’s industrial policy and several key pieces of legislation aimed at boosting infrastructure spending. In just a few months, Trump has wrecked that progress. And he has done so for no compelling reason whatsoever—simply because he has always, going back to his first term, taken pleasure in destroying his predecessor’s accomplishments.
Any Republican president would have signed the tax cut that Trump signed in July. But no other president from either party would have launched a trade war that has already pushed the U.S. economy to the brink, and it’s highly unlikely that anyone else would have launched such a destructive war against the Federal Reserve. Such are the consequences of an electorate that was angry about high prices, and then unwittingly voted for even higher prices. If there is a recession in the next three years—something that grows increasingly likely with each passing week—Trump will own all of it.
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