The muted activity is partly explained by the London holiday, which has suppressed volumes. Still, traders are keeping a close watch on the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38016. That average has acted as reliable support over the last 3–4 weeks, and its steady climb makes it an increasingly accessible downside test.
A break below 1.38016 would shift the bias in the short term, opening the door toward the 100-day moving average at 1.37676 and the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37539. Until then, buyers will try to lean against the support and keep the consolidation intact, while sellers look for momentum through that key technical floor.
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