Outlook: PCE inflation seen peaking ~4.5% annualized; year-end ~3% headline, 3.2% core. Risks of inflation staying above target into 2026.
Jackson Hole: Powell likely to lean hawkish to preserve flexibility—too early to judge tariffs, inflation still more concerning than jobs.
US outlook: Baseline=slow growth (GDP ~1% in 2025–26), gradual rise in unemployment, inflation above target, Fed on hold until 2026.
I agree with the bank. I think if it wasn't for the NFP revisions, the market's reaction to last week's Core CPI and PPI data would have been completely different.
80% chance for one in September.
Arguably the best opportunity for risk event traders would be a Powell that sticks to the FOMC script, and says they prefer to wait for the next batch of data before they make up their mind for September.
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