For July, retail sales is estimated to be +0.5% m/m following a +0.6% m/m reading in June. The ex-autos estimate is more modest, seen at +0.3% m/m. Meanwhile, the control group estimate is expected at +0.4%. All in all, expectations are for the US consumer to once again prove their resilience.
Morgan Stanley projects headline retail sales to beat estimates at +0.8% m/m, largely driven by a +3.4% m/m surge in auto sales. As for the control group reading, they are forecasting a +0.4% reading as "solid income growth and mild inflation should support nominal spending".
With markets already pricing in a 25 bps rate cut for September, a Goldilocks scenario would prove ideal. If retail sales comes in more or less within estimates and just show some light signs of moderation in consumer resilience, that will be the best to reaffirm the current Fed pricing. That means a report that isn't too hot nor is it too bad that it triggers recession concerns.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.Hence then, the article about another test of the us consumer coming up later today was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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