We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Old Trafford with our Man Utd vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can Mikel Arteta’s side start the season on the front foot?
Man Utd vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
Arsenal are expected to kick off the new season on a high, beating Man Utd in 46.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations. This is just the second time in English league history that Manchester United are hosting Arsenal in their first game of the season, previously beating the Gunners 4-1 in 1989-90. Mikel Arteta’s side are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League away games (W7 D7), a run that dates back to November.Manchester United and Arsenal had contrasting fortunes in 2024-25 but each will be desperate to get the new Premier League campaign off to an encouraging start as they begin 2025-26 on a level footing.
United endured their worst Premier League season as they finished 15th, while they also lost the Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur. Arsenal’s title challenge fizzled out, though they still finished as runners-up for the third consecutive year.
Arsenal will be aiming to fight for the title once more in what is their 100th consecutive season in the English top-flight, the longest ongoing run of any side.
The omens for a positive start this term are good; they have won their opening league game in five of the last six seasons (L1), including each of the previous three. They last had a longer run of opening-day wins between 2001-02 and 2005-06 (five).
Their strong away form was a highlight of last season, particularly in the second half of the campaign. They head into Sunday’s trip unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League away games (W7 D7) since a 1-0 loss at Newcastle United in November.
Mikel Arteta strengthened his team over the summer, laying down a marker with the acquisitions of Viktor Gyökeres, Martín Zubimendi and Noni Madueke as the Basque coach hopes to finally turn the Gunners into champions.
Gyökeres, who scored 68 league goals across the last two seasons, could get one over his former Sporting CP boss, Ruben Amorim. But even if the Swede doesn’t get on the scoresheet, Arsenal do tend to get goals at Old Trafford, scoring in each of their last 11 Premier League visits (14 goals).
Amorim will be keen to cause an upset, though, as he begins his first full campaign in charge of United, who start the Premier League season at home for the ninth successive year.
The Red Devils have won their opener in the competition more often than any other side (22) while also having the best win rate on MD 1 of any side to play more than one season (67%).
United failed to win consecutive league matches across the whole of last season. But having beaten Aston Villa on the final day of 2024-25, they could win back-to-back outings in the Premier League for the first time since MD 1 of last term, when they beat Fulham 1-0.
Like Arsenal, United have spent considerably in an attempt to strengthen their team, bringing in Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko. But they will likely still look to their star man and captain, Bruno Fernandes, who was their only player to score at home against top-six opposition last term, including a free-kick against the Gunners.
Man Utd vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Manchester United have lost just two of their last 18 Premier League home games against Arsenal (W10 D6).
However, both defeats have been with Arteta in charge of the Gunners (1-0 in both November 2020 and May 2024).
This is just the second time in English league history United will host Arsenal in their league opener, previously beating the Gunners 4-1 in 1989-90.
United have won 99 of their 243 meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D55 L89). They’ve only beaten Aston Villa (107) more often, while they would be the first team to beat the Gunners 100 times if they’re victorious on Sunday.
Man Utd vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer expects Arteta to earn another victory at Old Trafford, with Arsenal given a 45.1% chance of victory on Sunday.
Manchester United’s hopes of making a winning start to the new campaign are just 29.5%, while the match finished in a draw in 25.4% of the simulations.
Looking at the campaign as a whole, Arsenal won the title in 24% of the 10,000 Premier League season simulations, while they finished second in 19.7%. United’s likeliest finishing positions are 10th, 12th or 13th, with all of those rated at a 7.4% likelihood.
Man Utd vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Man Utd: Altay Bayindir, Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Ayden Heaven, Amad Diallo, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbuemo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at Old Trafford, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man Utd vs Arsenal Prediction: Gunners’ Title Bid Begins Against Ruben Amorim’s New Attack Opta Analyst.
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